THE EPSOM OAKS
Friday 2nd June, 4:30pm
Savethelastdance @ 5/6
Soul Sister @ 3/1
Running Lion @11/2
Eternal Hope @ 16/1
Heartache Tonight @ 25/1
Be Happy @ 33/1
view odds
*prices correct at time of writing.
THE EPSOM DERBY
Saturday 3rd June, 1:30pm
Auguste Rodin @ 7/2
Military Order @ 4/1
Arrest @ 9/2
Passenger @ 5/1
Sprewell @ 11/1
The Foxes @ 12/1
view odds
*prices correct at time of writing.
On day one we kick things off with the Coronation Cup, what do you make of the line-up?
There’s a lot of hype around Westover who was clearly a bit luckless in the Derby last year when finishing third, he went on to a sixth-place finish in the Arc, so he’s clearly got credentials.
With Emily Upjohn, the vibes from Newmarket heath are very positive. She showed her class last season finally getting that much sought-after Group 1 success on Champions Day. But she is taking on the boys.
I think, at the sort of odds on offer, Hurricane Lane is a more than sensible option. For whatever reason things weren’t right in 2022 – but that win in the Jockey Club Stakes just gave me the impression that the brilliant thee-year-old of two years ago is still in there, he just had that spark about him again.
Point Lonsdale has plenty of ones next to his name which is a good thing. But not in the sort of races that make you think he could be a contender. Tunnes from Germany – I think the ground won’t suit – but he makes up an intriguing little race.
The Oaks has some interesting story lines, how do you see things panning out?
It looks tight between the top two in the market. With Savethelastdance you cannot help but wonder – although the time was very good in the conditions – Aidan said it almost looked like an optical illusion!
John Gosden has an excellent record in the Oaks. I suppose there is a bit of a stamina doubt with Soul Sister – but that’s the only negative. These two horses are clearly the ones to beat.
Outside of that if Oisin Murphy was to win on Running Lion it would be some redemption arc. Eternal Hope catches the eye. She was supplemented after a very striking performance at Lingfield, and she’s got the right team around her.
The other would be Caernarfon. She was staying on at the end of the Guineas – whether she will be able to stay quite this far is debatable, but I’ll be keeping an eye on her at the sort of prices on offer.
With the Derby being moved to accommodate the FA Cup final, does that diminish the event in your eyes?
Not for me. It is worth looking at birthdays. This is the 244th Derby and the 142nd FA Cup final. Football may come away with the bragging rights on this occasion – but with over 240 years of heritage we’re looking at a great institution that has stood the test of time.
Over to the race itself – it looks like quite a jigsaw – how do you solve it?
This is a juicy Derby with all sorts of storylines. Can Auguste Rodin bounce back? Can Frankel underline his position as a supreme stallion, could Godolphin strike again with Military Order? Could Sir Michael Stoute and Richard Kingscote do it again with Passenger – or will there be a Frankie fairytale with Arrest? There are so many questions.
You’ve got another potentially very good story if Charlie Johnston managed to win the race with Dubai Mile – a race that his father could never quite manage when he was training.
What do you make of the current favourite?
If Auguste Rodin was trained by anyone other than Aidan O’Brien he would be 10 or 12 to one. But Aidan has a fantastic record in the Derby and he’s radiating positive vibes. That run well-down the field in the Guineas was a pothole in the road, he didn’t have much luck in running.
I think to be honest it’s the Aidan O’Brien factor that’s a big part of the market confidence – it would certainly be no surprise to see Auguste Rodin go off as favourite. However, it would be no surprise to see one of the other market leaders go off favourite.
What do you make of the market?
It could be quite a volatile market in an exciting way. I think everyone will be monitoring what money is going where, there are some outside players as well. Is a Derby that betting-wise feels a little bit more like the Grand National.
Did any of the trials particularly strike you this year?
The Dante Stakes has traditionally been one of the outstanding trials for the Derby. Anyone who watched that race could see that Passenger wasn’t just unlucky, he was luckless. He’s ended up running a tremendous race just to finish in the frame.
I think Andrew Balding and the team at Kingsclere will be a little relieved that they haven’t got everyone talking about them. There are some doubts about whether The Foxes will stay – but the instinct of the trainer and those around him is he will. It would be somewhat ironic – if The Foxes – owned by King Power Racing – won the Derby a week after their team – and the horse’s namesake – has been relegated.
There has also been a bit of chat about White Birch – the horse would have won if the race had gone on a few more strides. He’s not a particularly sexy contender, he’s a very sturdy, reliable type – so maybe the Leger might be more his type of race.
You’re going to slightly hold your breath with all form coming out of Chester, because of the rain-softened conditions there. With Arrest, it was an arresting performance. But if you fancy Arrest, Dubai Mile beat him over a shorter distance last year.
With the Chester Vase for example, the last horse to win that and then go on to the Derby was Ruler of the World in 2013, but before that you’re going back to Shergar in the 1980s!
Who’s your idea of an underestimated outsider?
The most potentially underestimated horse in the race is Sprewell. He’s trained by Jessica Harrington – his form in Ireland is rock solid – and we certainly shouldn’t be overlooking him. Time and time again sport throws up a fabulous story. Jessica Harrington is one of the most familiar faces in racing, she’s not well at the moment and she’s got a horse with a right chance in the Derby. That’s just the cherry top. The form looks good, he’s slightly under the radar, should stay and has a lovely back story.
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