Best bets
2.5pts each-way Brooks Koepka @ 10/1
1.5pts each-way Tyrrell Hatton @ 28/1
1.5pts each-way Viktor Hovland @ 14/1
1pt each-way Jordan Spieth @ 22/1
1pt each-way Justin Rose @ 33/1
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As if solving the US Open puzzle wasn’t hard enough, the USGA have made it even more difficult for punters by taking their most prestigious tournament to a course that has been around for over a hundred years but never hosted a major championship.
True, the exclusive Los Angeles Country Club off Wilshire Boulevard right next to Beverly Hills did host five editions of the LA Open but the last one was in 1940 and the North course has been extensively renovated since then. The tweaked layout, originally created by George Thomas of Riviera renown, was the scene of a landslide American victory in the 2017 Walker Cup and holds particularly fond memories for Collin Morikawa, who won all four of his matches. Also in that squad was Scottie Scheffler but he was far from the world No. 1 force he is today and played only two games, winning one and losing one.
It’s a hilly 7423 yards, reduced to a par 70 by trimming the 290-yard seventh from a four to an outrageously long par three. Three par fives and five par threes is an unusual combination, so short-hole specialists will be in their element but it’s generous enough off the tee. No water hazards but instead, especially on the front nine, the barranca, a local speciality, steep-sided ravines, gullies or gorges which are like penalties and need to be avoided. The Bermuda rough is deep and will punish players who miss the greens.
In order to identify the best golfer on the week, the USGA will want to test every aspect of the game and look for a winning score around six under par if recent Opens are anything to go by as that figure has been the mark for Matt Fitzpatrick at Brookline, Jon Rahm at Torrey Pines and Bryson DeChambeau at Winged Foot the past three years.
Now and again they overdo the challenge and Johnny Par is the winner. Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera were both five over when they won and Scott Simpson, Justin Rose and Brooks Koepka all failed to match par yet survived to carry the trophy away.
Scheffler is the 7/1 favourite with Fitzdares and while he commands the utmost respect as winner of six tournaments in the past 16 months, I’m thinking tough-guy Koepka at 10/1 is the bet.
The LIV men, barred from PGA Tour events but not for much longer by the sound of it after last week’s out-of-the-blue peace pact, are out in force again with PGA champion Koepka and last year’s Open winner Cameron Smith two serious threats to the Big Three from the main circuit, Scheffler, Rahm and Rory McIlroy, in what could be a LIV v PGA shootout. We are rubbing our hands already!
I don’t believe there’s anyone in the field mentally or physically tougher than Koepka who thrives on daunting assignments. Just look at where he’s won some of his five-major haul, Bethpage Black, Shinnecock and Oak Hill, all deservedly fearsome.
And it’s only majors that really float his boat. He wins them in clusters – and when he doesn’t win, he’s right up there. At last fully restored to 100% fitness after career-saving knee surgery, he’s started 2023 just like he did 2019, second in the Masters, first in the PGA. Four years ago he followed that with another second at the US Open and a fourth to Shane Lowry at damp Royal Portrush.
He’s not afraid of winning two majors in a year – he did just that in 2018 with the US Open and the PGA – and with the muscle he has to cope with heavy rough and the patience required to cope with hard, bouncy fairways, I’d make him favourite to hit double top again.
Expect the cream to rise to the top though I’m not sure McIlroy’s mindset is right for a test of this nature. He’s played the course online but not the real thing. Entering the final round in Canada as favourite, he disturbingly went backwards and it’s hard to believe his game is sharp enough to win a second US Open.
On the other hand, defending champion Fitzpatrick has played it and rates it. He’s a tough cookie too who won’t let the title go without a fight. He was one Englishman who didn’t make the top ten in Canada at the weekend – Tommy Fleetwood a frustrating second and should have won, Tyrrell Hatton and Arron Rai joint third, Rose eighth – but he will be all the better for staying under the radar, keeping his powder dry for the big one.
After Rahm in 2021 and Fitzpatrick last year, Europe goes for a US Open hat-trick with every chance of doing so. Masters hero and four-time 2023 winner Rahm is ready to erupt again after a quiet spell, Rose has always been a fine operator on tough courses, Hatton is playing the best golf of his life and Viktor Hovland has hit top form at the right time.
Sunday’s near miss in Toronto was Tyrrell’s sixth top-six of a highly lucrative but so far winless year. His last five form figures 3-5-15-12-3 are so encouraging that I must stick with him. His iron play and putting are right up there with the very best.
Rose does have a 2023 victory on his CV, at Pebble Beach. He won his US Open at Merion, a course of similar difficulty, and although well into his forties, he still has plenty to offer. A big-occasion golfer, he’s been sixth at the Players, ninth at the PGA and 16th at Augusta this campaign, so every encouragement for an each-way punt.
After sharing second place with Scheffler behind Koepka at the PGA, Norway’s pride, Hovland, went one better at Muirfield Village when taking down Denny McCarthy in the Memorial playoff, this time finishing just ahead of the mighty Scheffler – both performances on big courses where the winner was single figures under par, just as this is likely to be.
If Scheffler’s putter lets him down, as has been the case more than once yesterday, then Jordan Spieth could turn out to be the pick of the home PGA Tour side. It’s ludicrous that under-achievers Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele have yet to win a Major or even post a victory this year, while Morikawa and Justin Thomas have flat-stick problems.
Max Homa is very familiar with the course – he’s the record-holder there with a 61 but that was in his college days ten years ago and he has flattened out after a fast start to this campaign – and that leaves the dashing Spieth as a likely Hollywood leading man. Longer and straighter off the tee thsn he used to be, the set-up in LA could favour his game and there’s no arguing about his form. He’s been knocking on the door all year – six top-six finishes, just edged out by Fitzpatrick in the Heritage playoff and fourth at Memorial last time out.
Winner of the US Open at Chambers Bay in 2015, another course where few beat par, he will be able to weave his magic around the raised greens to telling effect.
Aussie duo Smith and Adam Scott may also make their presence felt but I don’t see a 100/1-plus winner. Weatherwise it looks a no-problem four days with temperatures in the 70s, not much wind and plenty of sunshine. Bring it on!
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