Best bets
Winning Margin: 2pts by two shots @ 4/1
Top Debutant: 1pt each-way Rasmus Hojgaard @ 14/1
Top Swede: 2pts Henrik Stenson @ 5/2
Top Asian: 2pts win Joo-Hyung (Tom) Kim to win @ 100/30
Top Asian: 1pt each-way K-H (Ben) An @ 13/2
Thursday Threeballs
1pt Trixie: Talor Gooch (9.14), Rasmus Hojgaard (11.36), J-H Kim (1.04)
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As ever, Fitzdares have more markets on the Open Championship than you can shake a stick out and with eight places available on the outright, each-way punters can really get stuck in too.
Backers of Open favourite Rory McIlroy face a long wait to see their man in the opening day’s marquee threeball as it is not until 2.59 that the Northern Irishman tees off alongside Masters champion Jon Rahm and Justin Rose. Having tipped McIlroy to repeat his Hoylake triumph of nine years ago, I hope he makes as fast a start as he did when kicking off with a 66 last time but since then he has often started relatively slowly and come with a rush on Sunday.
So we’ll leave that one alone, particularly as Rose has a history of low first rounds in Majors, and look to Talor Gooch at 9.14, Rasmus Hojgaard at 11.36 and Tom Kim at 1.04 for our day-one Trixie (three doubles and a treble). LIV star Gooch, a triple winner on the rebel tour, is a wonderfully accurate driver and can wear down Irish aces Pádraig Harrington and Seamus Power; Hojgaard should have too much for Matt Fitzpatrick’s kid brother Alex and Matthew Southgate; and 21-year-old Kim has a wise old head on young shoulders. He will have learned much about links golf when partnering McIlroy on his victory round on Sunday and his sixth place there – – should have been T3 but he three-stabbed it from five feet at the last – on top of last month’s US Open top-ten makes him a standout to outscore Tom Hoge and Abe Ancer.
Now that he has struck form with a vengeance, Kim looks a worthy favourite on the Top Asian market as Hideki Matsuyama has had injury issues and does not seem quite the force he was. A bigger danger could be Ben An who finished ahead of Kim in Scotland and knows Hoylake better, having finished a solid 26th to McIlroy as a virtual unknown back in 2014. Back An each-way at 13/2 and Kim at 100/30. Both bets look like winners.
Top Debutant could be between two ambitious Europeans in a 12/1-the-field market headed by the best putter in the States, Denny McCarthy. The conditions favour Dane Rasmus Hojgaard, a winner in his homeland just two weekends back, and Germany’s Yannik Paul who seems to be on leaderboards most weeks. Both are in line for Ryder Cup debuts and a good Open would clinch their spots. Only 22, Rasmus has more potential and gets a narrow vote at 14/1. The missed cut in Scotland could be a blessing in disguise as it has given him more time to prepare.
There are only four runners gunning for Top Swede and I was tempted by the outsider David Lingmerth after his T3 in the Scottish. But this is only his second Open and the experience of 2016 Open champion Henrik Stenson could be decisive. He may be 47 but Tom Watson almost won an Open in his 60th year and there were three consecutive 40-something champions in Darren Clarke, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els a decade ago. Because they are not a test of length but of cunning and guile, this is the Major best suited to the golden oldies and Stenson, four times a top-three Open finisher, showed there was still plenty of life in the old dog when sixth to Cameron Smith two weekends ago in LIV’s only UK tournament. Before that he’d placed fourth in Washington and short-haul golf seems to be agreeing with Henrik as he won on his LIV bow last July.
With six top-tens from his last eight outings, Alexander Bjork looks as big a threat as Lingmerth but in four Open attempts he has never made the cut.
For a bit of fun, why not take a pop at the Winning Margin market as the 4/1 for two shots strikes me as very fair value. The last three Hoylake champions, Roberto de Vicenzo, Tiger Woods and McIlroy, all won by that margin. And there has never been a playoff.
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