Best bets
2.5pts win Dean Burmester @ 11/2
1.5pts each-way Jayden Schaper @ 25/1
1.5pts each-way Erik Van Rooyen @ 14/1
1pt each-way Branden Grace @ 14/1
O.5pt each-way Dan Bradbury @ 28/1
0.5pt win Charl Schwartzel @ 22/1
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What a weekend for golf junkies just when we thought everything was pretty well done and dusted: almost wall-to-wall Sky coverage of three engrossing tournaments, the long-awaited return of pure box-office gold Tiger Woods, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in a class of his own in the Bahamas, Dean Burmester winning back to back in South Africa, the LIV flag flying high with two winners, Burmester and Joaquin Niemann… and all three tipped by your venerable scribe at 14/1, 13/2 and 5/1.
True, they weren’t the three intended to bring Fitzdares to its knees but you can’t have everything and headline fancy Justin Thomas played a blinder for third place at 14/1 in Tiger’s charity tournament. A profitable week is never to be sneezed at and my hope for the new year is that Woods, who turns 48 this month, still has enough petrol in a tank that looked empty forever a couple of years back when he came off second-best to a brute of a tree in a horrendous car prang.
He played with far greater freedom than the last time we saw him 236 days previously at Augusta, in notably less pain and fatigue too, when finishing level par for 72 holes, all walked, and 18th of the 20 stars who turned out at glorious Albany.
Next week he partners livewire 14-year-old son Charlie in the annual father-and-relative Florida fun fest (but he’s allowed a buggy then). The next time we see him play proper golf will be in February when he begins a planned once-a-month PGA Tour campaign featuring the four Majors.
There is a long way to go and a lot of bad shots to cut out before he can compete strongly at that level. But it was a highly encouraging return from such a long absence. When he limped painfully out of the Masters after seven holes of the third round in April, many thought that was it and we’d never see him again. Once again he has proved the doubters wrong.
The mega-rich, Saudi-financed LIV tour had a great week with Masters champion Jon Rahm strongly rumoured to be signing for them in a $300m smash-and-grab before their men Burmester and Niemann captured two national Opens, in South Africa and Australia.
It was Burmester’s second home victory in straight weeks and he’s favourite to make it an SA treble in the Alfred Dunhill Championship at photogenic Leopard Creek in the shadow of Kruger National Park at Malelane this weekend.
The field is a little stronger than the two he defeated with the addition of two LIV stars Louis Oosthuizen and Branden Grace along with last month’s winner of the World Wide Technology Championship on the PGA Tour, Erik Van Rooyen.
Local stars absolutely dominate the betting and it not until Yorkshireman Dan Bradbury and the windy German Matti Schmid at 28/1 that we come to the pick of the Europeans.
Schmid has a million-dollar swing but not the nerve to go with it and Bradbury, who is built for comfort rather than speed, looked jaded last week. He failed to live up his previous level following a third in Joburg and fifth at the Nedbank.
His pro breakthrough third time out as a pro came in Johannesburg last year and as golf in South Africa seems to bring out the best of him, I’m prepared to give Dan another chance on a cracking course, a par 72 of 7249 yards, that was once virtually owned by 2011 Masters champion Charl Schwartzel who triumphed there three times between 2012 and 2015, having been runner-up four times previously.
All that is long, long ago and although he won the inaugural LIV tournament at St Albans in the summer of 2022, he has been steadily sliding down the world rankings, not helped by LIV results not counting for ranking points, and now resides in 503rd spot. That great LIV start has not been maintained beyond a seventh in Adelaide at the start of the year yet there was enough in his first three days at Blair Atholl last week to venture a small investment given his long-standing love affair with the course.
Branden Grace, the 2014 champion, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, winner three years ago, have to come into the conversation but it’s a long time since CB won and he’s been very expensive to follow. Grace is a grittier competitor, won with LIV in their first year and has had two near misses this campaign, and was fourth here last year to shock winner Ockie Strydom (a 200/1 shot for a successful defence).
I can’t have Oosthuizen who has forgotten how to win. Sweet swinger he may be but it’s five years since his last victory and on his LIV performances he simply doesn’t merit being so high in the betting.
Thriston Lawrence is a class act who despite his four victories wilts under pressure more often than not and his meek surrender at Joburg two outings ago was not pretty to watch, particularly if you had backed the beefy South African.
Preference is for Van Rooyen, a double PGA Tour winner in the past two seasons but with little positive Leopard Creek form and not noted for consistency. That win in Mexico at the start of last month when he shot 28 for the back nine to come from out of the clouds gives him the self-belief to make a big noise.
Jayden Schaper, Zander Lombard and Hennie du Plessis are three more locals with positive claims, Schaper having most going for him – he was ADC runner-up as a teenager three years ago and will have gained confidence from his national Open fifth at the weekend. That followed a top ten at the Joburg Open. Third time lucky?
Scott Jamieson has such a solid course record that you couldn’t rule the Glasgow 40-year-old out of a place even though he’s another one who seems to find a way to lose. It’s 11 years since his lone victory but that came in South Africa and in December. Just saying …
Expect delays with thunderstorms predicted for the last three days but at least it will be warm.
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