Best bets
3pts each-way Tyrrell Hatton @ 9/1
3pts win Rory McIlroy @ 3/1
0.5pt each-way Haotong Li @ 125/1
0.5pt each-way Francesco Molinari @ 80/1
0.5pt each-way Rikuya Hoshino @ 60/1
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Full credit to Tommy Fleetwood for birdieing the last two holes and turning defeat into a long-overdue victory after crossing the line first only once in his previous 98 starts but the Dubai Invitational was a monumental cock-up by Rory McIlroy who really should have won – and with a degree of comfort.
Rory backers – and there are many thousands of them around the golfing world – will have been tearing their hair out as their hero’s profligacy mounted up during his comedy-of-errors week.
First of all that quadruple-bogey seven on day two with two visit to the creek. Then that embarrassing three-putt from 30 inches on the 14th on Sunday. Yet miraculously he was still one ahead standing on the 72nd tee. Not for long. One ugly hook into the water and a kamikaze bogey as playing partner Fleetwood slotted a 16-footer for a two-shot swing and an unlikely victory.
Not that I was complaining – I’ll take a W whatever way it comes, Tommy was my first winner of the year – and the boot was in the other foot later in the day when 200/1 outsider Grayson Murray sank a 36ft birdie putt in extra time to foil 28/1 Sony Open tip Ben An. You take the rough with the smooth in this game.
McIlroy played such good stuff for most of the week that his ultimate failure should not impact on his chances of a fourth Dubai Desert Classic title at his beloved Majlis course at the Emirates club. It was there that he notched his first European Tour victory as a tousle-haired 19-year-old way back in 2009. It seems like only yesterday that he got it up and down from the greenside bunker to pip Justin Rose by a stroke. The nerves were probably better then.
Favourite he has to be with such a formidable record on the Karl Litton-designed 7428-yard par 72 that was the pioneer of the game in the Arab nations when it arrived in all its pristine glory on tour in 1989; now there are five tournaments in the UAE alone on the DP World Tour.
Apart from those three course wins, he finished runner-up to Haotong Li in 2018 after being two up with eight to play and was only a shot out of the Viktor Hovland-Richard Bland playoff two years ago. And he’s the defending champion, having seen off LIV raider Patrick Reed last January. McIlroy backers have so much going for them.
But as the field for this $9m Rolex event is substantially stronger than last week’s gentle pro-am warm-up, punters have to ask themselves do they really want to get seriously involved at only 3/1, much the same price as was for Dubai Creek. Coming over from Hawaii are Open champion Brian Harman and Ryder Cup hero Tyrrell Hatton, LIV star Joaquin Niemann gets in by virtue of being Australian Open champion and classy visitors Adam Scott and Cameron Young are more than capable of having a big say.
Yes, world No. 2 Rory is still by far the highest-ranked golfer teeing it up on the manicured Majlis fairways, always one of the most eagerly-awaited assignments, so we have to have him as a safety net but seeing so recently how vulnerable he can be, even in Dubai where he feels so comfortable, I’m prepared to take him on again, not with Fleetwood this time as the Southport man’s Emirates record is nothing to write home about, but by another Ryder Cup pal in Hatton.
Tyrrell faces the same problem as Fleetwood overcame – a 20-hour flight across 8700 miles and 14 time zones from Hawaii to Dubai – but his form was stronger than Fleetwood’s in Kapalua (14th to 47th), he played every bit as well at Waialae for T13th, and 34 under par for those eight rounds was a great return from someone who had put the clubs away over Christmas and didn’t recognise his swing when he arrived on Maui.
There’s no disputing Hatton’s excellent form at the lake-strewn Emirates course – third in 2017 and 2018, fourth in 2022 – and he’s more in control of himself these days. I’m expecting big things this year from this Englishman whose eccentricities go down well in the States. That’s something I say every year but Fleetwood has shown him the way and one of those two can grab a first Major in 2024.
Thorbjorn Olesen, eighth on Sunday, has plenty of course form too (third in 2013, fifth the following year, seventh in 2019) and appeals as a top-ten wager but may find the company a bit too hot for win purposes, the same comment applying to his gifted fellow Danes, the Hojgaard twins Nicolai and Rasmus.
World-class Chilean Niemann is feared more than the two Americans – Harman’s driving was surprisingly shaky at Waialae – but I’ll back up Hatton and McIlroy with three longshots, two of whom showed their first real form for ages at Dubai Creek – 2018 Open champion Francesco Molinari who was fourth and one-time Chinese No. 1 Li whose 14th was a welcome return from a wilderness so barren he had plunged to 509th in the world.
Superstardom beckoned when Li placed third in the 2017 Open Championship, then beat McIlroy with some fearless late birdies the following year in Dubai in a dazzling 23-under-par show. He led the 2020 PGA Championship at halfway too, then it all went pear-shaped but maybe a return to the scene of his biggest victory will see him augment last week’s progress at huge odds.
Molinari’s arrow-straight driving and iron play were well served by Dubai Creek and while this week’s test is a bit longer and more in favour of bombers – Bryson DeChambeau’s 24 under destroyed the field in 2019 – the little Italian could be a menace to all.
Finally, Rikuya Hoshino, a star in Japan where he’s a six- time winner, announced himself on the world stage at the end of last year with second places in the Australian PGA and Australian Open (lost in a playoff to the redoubtable Niemann, with Min Woo Lee behind). This may be asking too much but put him in your notebook. This guy can play!
Best bets
1.5pts each-way JT Poston @ 28/1
1pt each-way Tom Kim @ 22/1
1pt each-way Min Woo Lee @ 28/1
1pt each-way Jason Day @ 33/1
0.5pt each-way Patton Kizzire @ 125/1
Back in the day this pro-am was called the Bob Hope Desert Classic – still is by some of us old-timers – and the great comedian, a fine golfer himself with a handicap of four in his prime, used to play host to ex-presidents as well as old buddies like Bing Crosby and Frank Sinatra.
President Ford was a particular pal and so lethal with his sprayed tee shots that Hope used to joke: “it’s not hard to find Gerry Ford on the golf course – you just follow the wounded” or “whenever I play with him, I try to make it a foursome – the President, myself, a paramedic and a faith healer”. Spectators were advised to stand on the fairway when Ford drove – “they’re safer that way”.
All in jest of course but there doesn’t seem quite so much fun these days. Now, after several name changes, the tournament is called the American Express. It’s still a pro-am although four days instead of the old five with 156 professionals and 156 amateurs playing often painfully slow golf over three resort courses at Palm Springs in the Californian desert. One, La Quinta, is a five-mile drive from the others at PGA West, the Pete Dye Stadium course and the Nicklaus. At least they’re in the same State.
Its British pro-am equivalent, the Dunhill Links in Scotland, spreads itself over two counties, St Andrews and Kingsbarns in Fife, Carnoustie in Angus.
The courses, all under 7200 yards with generous pars of 72 and rated among the four easiest on the PGA circuit, are played once with the top 65 going through to the final round on the Stadium course, by common consent the most demanding with its water hazards and small, slopy greens.
But with easy pin positions so as not to embarrass the amateurs, all three invite an overload of birdies, Jon Rahm’s 27 under getting him home last year by only one for his second desert victory. Sadly, the great Spaniard and the other recent double scorer, Hudson Swafford, have thrown in their lot with LIV and therefore non grata at PGA Tour events.
It’s a putter’s paradise with most holes target practice for wedge experts and results show it’s an absolute lottery with the average SP these past five year over 200/1. Winners who are not even household names in their own household – Adam Long (500/1), Andrew Landry (200/1) and Swafford (175/1) – sit alongside the creme de la creme like Rahm on the honours board.
Tiger Woods never won it because he never played and many of the best players took the week off. Once-a-year spectators mostly came just to get the celebs’ autographs and weren’t too clued up on crowd etiquette.
It’s a bit different this year with possibly the strongest line-up ever, headed by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Also in attendance: Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Shane Lowry, US Open champion Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau. Lurking menacingly are bright young things Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee and Akshay Bhatia.
Whenever Scheffler loses it’s usually the putter to blame. He looked to have sorted it with a majestic display at the Hero but the old problems resurfaced at Kapalua. He’ll be trying things out this week and could be vulnerable, JT may need this first outing of the year and while Cantlay and Schauffele are great buddies they are no punters’ pals, promising much and delivering little in the way of victories.
The big names can all be turned over and this looks a perfect opportunity for flat-stick wizard JT Poston who has started the year with fifth and sixth in the Hawaiian Swing (and a best of-the-week 61 at Waialae on Sunday), loves Dye courses, and said in his TV interview at the weekend how much he was looking forward to the AmEx. He shared fifth place with another of my picks, Tom Kim, last year and knows how to win too, his latest success coming at the 2022 John Deere Classic.
Tom Kim’s lack of length won’t hamper him on these short courses and it’s about time he added to those three early victories, two of which came in the pro-am ambiance of the Shriners Open in Las Vegas. Bubbly with a great sense of fun, he has a better temperament than most for this form of golf. A share of second at Hoylake in last year’s Open underlined how he can flourish on any kind of course but these three look right up his street.
In the heady days when he was world No. 1, Day was an awesome putter. He may miss a few more now but was 23 under round TPC Craig Ranch in winning last year’s Nelson and opened 2024 nicely with tenth spot at Kapalua. A decent 16th here last year, Day may not be the only Aussie in contention as his young compatriot Min Woo Lee, a Major winner in waiting who can putt as spectacularly as he drives, has to come into the conversation. Sixth last year at the Players and fifth at the US Open, he seems to thrive in the States and his end of-year victory at the Australian PGA rounded off an impressive campaign that promises much for this year.
Putt-masters Andrew Putnam and Patton Kizzire will be in their element and buzzing after finishing tenth and 13th at Waialae, while the Koreans hold a strong hand, not only Tom Kim but his Presidents Cup partner Si Woo Kim, champion here three years ago, and Sungjae Im, who closed with a 63 for fifth at Kapalua the last time we saw him.
There’ll be a warm welcome-back for 2021 Ryder Cup player Daniel Berger, returning to the tour for the first time since the 2022 US Open after 18 months off with a back injury. The weather will be warm too (25C) and sunny to start with, although it could be a showery Sunday.
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