Best bets
2pts each-way Ryan Fox @ 16/1
1pt each-way Matti Schmid @ 28/1
1pt each-way Andrea Pavan @ 60/1
1pt each-way Joe Dean @ 80/1
1pt each-way Thomas Pieters @ 22/1
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LIV Golf stars Patrick Reed, Thomas Pieters and Martin Kaymer spice up the field on an away week to the BMW International Open in Munich but German sports fans are understandably far more interested in their Euro quarter-final clash with Spain in Stuttgart on Friday. On what we’ve seen, they’re the two best teams in the tournament.
With Wimbledon and the Tour de France in full flow as well this week, golf is a bit of an also-ran, particularly as there’s none of the game’s current elite in action anywhere.
The highest-ranked golfer in the BMW is Ryan Fox at 63rd while Austria’s Ryder Cup ace Sepp Straka at 24 is top man at the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour. They happen to be my two chief selections too and I’ll be backing them each-way to land a 254/1 double.
‘Fox can stop them hijacking this DP World Tour title.’
Kiwi Fox, 37, won’t win any prizes for style but he’s a very effective golfer at this level who has form at the Munich-Eichenried course, third to Haotong Li in 2022, and is doing very nicely thank you over in the States where he’s been taking advantage of the better prize money. This solid all-rounder makes good money wherever he plays.
He finished fourth at Myrtle Beach and in the Zurich Classic pairs tournament (with Garrick Higgo), and seventh in the Canadian Open. Foxy loves BMW tournaments too. He captured their PGA Championship at Wentworth last September.
Although the Saudi-backed breakaways are on a roll in the States after Bryson DeChambeau’s US Open victory and Richard Bland’s Senior PGA-US Open majors double, completed after weather delay in Rhode Island on Monday, Fox can stop them hijacking this DP World Tour title.
Munich debutant Reed was never in contention when favourite in Italy last week and only 29th, and Kaymer hasn’t won a golf tournament for ten years. Pieters is likely to be LIV’s main hope after his T2 in Belgium. He has failed to make much noise since signing for LIV but the ability has always been there even if the concentration is not.
The last time Kaymer came anywhere near winning a tournament was in Munich three years ago when he grabbed a share of second behind Viktor Hovland and he did post his first-ever LIV top-ten in Houston a few weeks ago but will his nerve hold up even if he does get into contention again?
He was the one and only home winner of this tournament back in 2008 but if there is to be a German champion it is surely more likely to be Matti Schmid who has had some good results on the PGA Tour and impressed on his return to Europe when 15th in Holland two weekends ago or the 125/1 winner of the Italian Open, Marcel Siem, 44 later this month but still with a heart of a lion as we saw with his spectacular finish in Ravenna on Sunday.
It’s hard to understand why Andrea Pavan is such an outsider as he’s been fourth and fifth these past two weeks and is a past winner on this wide, flat course which has hosted 27 of the 34 BMW Internationals. In 2019 he upset the odds by defeating Matt Fitzpatrick and is in the mood to spring another turn-up on this parkland 7347-yard par 72.
Joe Dean is another long-priced outsider with strong credentials. The Sheffield 30-year-old who has been driving a Morrisons delivery van to pay for his tournament expenses and took to being hypnotised to cure his aversion to travel has placed top five in three of the only six tournaments he has had the funds to compete in. The big cheque for a share of second at the KLM means he’s pretty flush right now and so is his golf. This guy is going places.
It’s going to be dry the first two days but heavy showers expected on Saturday.
Best bets
2pts each-way Sepp Straka @ 14/1
1pt each-way Davis Thompson @ 20/1
1pt each-way Nick Dunlap @ 33/1
1pt each-way Sungjae Im @ 12/1
0.5pt each-way Adam Schenk @ 60/1
0.5pt each-way Eric Cole @ 40/1
The withdrawal of early favourite Patrick Cantlay because of a training injury has cleared the path for Sepp Straka to win the John Deere Classic for the second year in a row. With only $7.4m for prize money when they are now used to an inflated $20m, the big names have given it the swerve.
The JDC has never been a strong tournament and this year’s edition, at its usual TPC Deere Run venue (7289 yards par 71) at Silvis, Illinois, is pretty well there for the taking.
Austrian heavyweight Straka won by two from Brendon Todd and Alex Smalley last year, shooting a Sunday 62 (with a double-bogey to finish!) and is certainly in encouraging-enough form to stage a repeat. Straka has three fifth places in better company plus a good Masters (16th) on his 2024 chart and the only real doubt is the 2023 Open runner-up’s iffy short-putting.
‘Three of the last four winners needed 21 under to get over the line so stand by for a birdie blitz.’
While Sungjae Im has missed the cut in all three Majors so far, the Korean’s record in the “ordinary” tournaments entitles him to serious respect. A recent eighth at Memorial and third at the Travelers speak well of his current well-being but there is no Deere Run confirmation about him as he has played there only twice and with no great distinction.
You couldn’t fail to be impressed by Davis Thompson in Detroit last week. It wasn’t just that he finished T2, it was the way he went about his work and the quality of his striking. Unlike the woefully windy Cameron Young, DT looked as if he was actually enjoying the struggle. That was the third runners-up spot for the 25-year-old Georgian. That elusive first W cannot be far behind. He will rarely get a better chance.
I was also impressed by new pro Nick Dunlap who started the year by winning the AmEx while still amateur and turning pro the next day when most thought he’d stay amateur until the Walker Cup. It has been a mixed bag since – three missed cuts in the Majors and another at the Players Championship – and the Rocket Mortgage on Sunday was his first top-ten from 15 attempts since the world No.1 amateur switched over.
He had no luck with the flat stick last weekend what from what we saw of him but it was the quality and power of the shot-making that registered. He’s only 20, will be for a while and there is much more to come, all good.
In this modest company, the name of Jordan Spieth sticks out. Twice John Deere champion (2013 his first win on tour) but that was a long time ago and his last five form figures make ugly reading.
At four times his odds, you might be better off backing Adam Schenk some of whose best golf has been played at Deere Run, fourth, fifth and sixth in three of the last four renewals. If you could forget his recent form and go back to April when he finished fifth in Texas and 12th at the Masters, you might have a bet.
Michael Kim is a past champion (by eight shots too) who writes lots of entertaining stuff on social media but it may be that he writes better than he plays these days while Eric Cole, last year’s top rookie, finally got it together with his fifth in Detroit, only his second top-ten from 23 starts this campaign. That should settle him down so watch out for some improved performances.
Keep an eye out for Luke Clayton, the standout from Florida State who made the cut at the US Open and contended for three days at the Rocket Mortgage before tailing off a little to finish T10. The Americans are getting very excited.
Weather: warm in the high 20s with some rain on day one. Three of the last four winners needed 21 under to get over the line so stand by for a birdie blitz.
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