Best bets
2.5pts each-way Ludvig Aberg @ 9/1
1pt each-way Mackenzie Hughes @ 33/1
1pt each-way Davis Thompson @ 18/1
1pt each-way Matt Wallace @ 33/1
1pt each-way Eric Cole @ 33/1
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The 47th and final official tournament of the PGA Tour year, the RSM Classic at Sea Island, Georgia, holds strong European interest with the return after knee surgery of defending champion Ludvig Aberg and favourite backers will be praying there’s no repeat of last week’s 300/1 shocker in Bermuda.
Betting aside, what a fairytale that was. After just 20 minutes with his brand-new baby daughter on Wednesday, Rafael Campos, a 36-year-old Puerto Rican with his future on the line after missing 13 of 14 cuts, flew off more with hope than confidence, teed off at Port Royal without a practice round and on Sunday won for the first time, not only saving his card but earning a spot in the big events he’d always dreamed about.
Campos is a 150/1 shot this week but won’t care what happens. “Even if I’d lost my job, I would have had a beautiful daughter and beautiful wife just waiting hopefully to give me a hug,” he declared romantically. At a time when golf sometimes seems bent on tearing itself apart, how wonderful it is when the little men have their day and remind us what it all should be about.
Back to business, and world No. 5 Aberg should blow inferior rivals away if he’s ready to rumble after surgery on a torn meniscus in his left knee that had been bothering him since injuring it in a training session in May. The last time he played competitive golf was at the Tour Championship which finished on September 1.
The 25-year-old Swede, the fastest rising star in the game, withdrew from the Wells Fargo and played the PGA Championship wearing a knee brace. His game suffered and he missed the cut in the PGA and The Open. Yet he was still competitive, placing fifth at Memorial, 12th in the US Open, fourth in the Scottish, second at the BMW and 16th at the Tour Championship.
The last time Aberg played Sea Island, he toured the 7005-yard, par 70 Seaside course in back-to-back weekend rounds of 61 to post an almost unimaginable 29-under-par 253 (one of the rounds is played on the par-72 Plantation course, hence the 282 par for the week). It equalled the lowest total in PGA history.
So, in a field where the main opposition, according to the market, comes from Davis Thompson, Brian Harman and Si Woo Kim, fine players all but hardly world-beaters (except for Harman’s one golden week in the Hoylake sun last year), the only question marks in backing the favourite are rust and the 20mph wind forecast for the opening day.
It won’t be the placid Sea Island of last year, at least not until the calm weekend, but while this links-style layout adjacent to the ocean will be more of a test, it should separate the men from the boys even more and while Aberg isn’t the best putter in the field, he’s the straightest of the long drivers and will be playing his second shots from birdie positions on the fairways.
Canadian putting wizard Mackenzie Hughes would have won any other Classic with the 25 under he shot for a clear second last year. He was also runner-up the previous year and it’s not hard to see him challenging again while another master of the flat stick JT Poston arrives on the back of victory in Las Vegas.
Georgia-born Thompson is a worthy second favourite. The John Deere Classic winner was fifth at the Shriners last time out, runner-up in Detroit and ninth at the US Open. Only 25, he continues to improve and impress.
Europe has more than one string to its bow. Aberg apart, Matt Wallace and Ryder Cup man Sepp Straka have win potential, Wallace looking the part for three rounds in Dubai following third place in Abu Dhabi and victory in Crans. He is desperate for a Ryder Cup debut and nobody works harder.
It was only a few weeks ago that Keith Mitchell was favourite for a couple of tournaments and almost won one, so to see him at 60/1 because he’s missed three cuts in a row following the disappointment of throwing it away at Sanderson Farms provides food for thought as he has Georgia ties and course form (12th in 2022).
Si Woo Kim (fifth and sixth on his two latest outings), Austin Eckroat, chasing his third win of a breakout year, Ben Griffin, Chris Kirk and Eric Cole (T3 last year and sixth in Japan last time out) all come into the conversation as does exciting newcomer Luke Clanton, only 21 but already runner-up at the JDC, but they will be fighting for place money if Aberg is anywhere near last year’s electric form.
BMW AUSTRALIAN PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
Best bets
2.5pts each-way Min Woo Lee @ 15/2
2pts each-way Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen @ 22/1
1pt each-way Robin Williams @ 50/1
0.5pt each-way Marc Leishman @ 11/1
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The DP World Tour’s multi-layered 2024 was wrapped up in style by its main man Rory McIlroy winning his third DPWT Championship and sixth Race To Dubai title in one fell swoop – only Colin Montgomerie’s eight left to beat – and now, without drawing breath, comes the opening event of the “2025” season, the Australian PGA Championship at Royal Queensland.
Unless you’re an insomniac, it, and next week’s Australian Open, are a nightmare for punters to follow because most of us will be sound asleep when the action takes place. Sky picks up the play at 1am in the wee small hours of Thursday morning but you need to place your bets by 8pm Wednesday UK time.
Although Adam Scott, a brilliant third to McIlroy on Sunday, has withdrawn, there should be enough stars from Down Under, Cameron Smith, Min Woo Lee, Jason Day, Cam Davis, Lucas Herbert and Marc Leishman, to repel boarders from all parts.
The Aussie hat-trick is on as Smith and Lee are the last two winners at Royal Queensland and will be fired up to get that elusive first W from a campaign they will look back on as somewhat disappointing.
Although stylish Frenchman Victor Perez and steady Englishman Jordan Smith are the paper pick of the visitors, two hot new kids on the block, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen from Denmark and Robin Williams from South Africa, could be the biggest threat to Aussie domination.
Facing them will be a long-standing 7085-yard par 71, a flat parkland course ten miles from Brisbane that has hosted three Australian Opens in its time and now a third Aussie PGA in a row.
Coming into it as Open champion, Smith was all the rage two years ago and duly obliged to pick up his third PGA title – he wasn’t at his best but didn’t need to be – but missed the cut last year and has failed to win on LIV this year. Three second places plus a sixth at the Masters were the best he could manage and he only broke 70 once in 14 rounds in the majors. A fallible favourite.
After winning this by three last year (and T4 the previous year) Min Woo went on to be third to Joaquin Niemann at the Australian Open. A PGA Tour breakthrough looked a certainty for the exciting 26-year-old from Perth but we’re still waiting. Still, second places at the Cognizant and Rocket Mortgage were strong performances and the defending champion is the man to beat.
Davis has twice been seventh at Royal Queensland but beaten a long way and was an out-of-the-blue winner in Detroit this year after a thin spell. At least he’s a winner this year which is more than can be said of Day, Leishman (third last year) or Herbert (T7 with Davis).
A trio of good results with LIV, particularly second place in Singapore, suggest there’s still life in 41-year-old Leishman and he could be in the mix.
Perez had his moments, fourth at the Olympics and third at the Canadian Open, but not as many as he would have liked while Jordan Smith is becoming a bit of a serial loser.
Playing with far more confidence is Challenge Tour champion Neergaard-Petersen, a triple winner at that level and just squeezed out of a fourth at the season-ending Rolex showdown. Having gained battlefield promotion to the main circuit he immediately showed he belonged with a series of eyecatching efforts, not least a T4 at the Dunhill Links. He is playing with great confidence.
At 23, Williams is two years younger but plays a very mature game. Born in Stellenbosch but moved to the UK when his father’s job took him there, he played for England as an amateur but has aligned himself to the Sunshine Tour where he won his second title after sharing fourth place with Noorgaard-Petersen in Scotland last month.
He almost won on the DP World Tour as well, just losing out in a playoff for the SDC Championship in March. An invitation from Gary Player himself to play in the Nedbank Challenge next month shows the regard South Africa has for this powerful prospect.
He has a big each-way shout along with Angel Ayora, only 20, another youngster worth following in 2025 and beyond.
For all your bets on the DP World Tour, visit our dedicated golf betting page.
