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It’s safe to say Ireland pulled my pants down two weekends ago. They were good, very good in fact, but I’m still getting nightmares from the Hadleigh Parkes disallowed try which I do think would have changed the final outcome of the game (or my handicap tip, which is more important anyway). The England match was comically horrific and Italy proved they aren’t completely useless with the ball in hand. Anyway…two out of three handicap winning bets is still a winning day, so let’s hope I can get the clean sweep this week!
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Italy vs Scotland (14:15 Saturday)
Clive’s play: Scotland -7 @ 5/6
I’m not sure anyone learnt a huge amount from Scotland’s match against England in ‘slightly’ windy conditions with a hint of rain… Having gone to university up in Edinburgh, I genuinely enjoyed rolling around with the boys in the mud (oi, oi), so I had very little sympathy watching professional athletes continuously drop ball after ball. I haven’t dropped any balls since ’92.
Italy were better against France than against Wales, whereas France were worse against Italy than against England, so on reflection perhaps Italy didn’t improve? That is some inception type analysis right there, but I guess what I’m trying to say is maybe two weeks ago we learnt very little. I’m sticking to my guns and going off what I saw in the first week of fixtures.
Scotland don’t look much weaker at 10 with Adam Hastings playing well enough to make Finn Russell semi-worried about his long term future with Scotland. If Scotland match Italy upfront, then I do believe on a dry day in Rome, Scotland’s backs can shred this Italian defence a new one. Granted, Italy are much better at home. However, having not won a 6 Nations match for 1,825 days, you can’t help but think this plays on the mind. Much like involuntary celibacy, the longer you go without action the less likely you are to seal the deal (Not a problem I ever experienced myself ????).
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Wales vs France (16:45 Saturday)
Clive’s play: Wales -4 @ 3/4
Wales played the better rugby for 50-60 minutes against the Irish. Ireland were definitely more clinical and exited their 22 much more efficiently than Wales. That said, I do think Wales looked good for long periods of the match. France, on the other hand, did what the French always do. They failed to back up a great performance with another one. Question marks will also remain when they have to travel away from home, and this year is no different for me.
Don’t get me wrong, I do think France are a much better outfit than they have been in previous championships; they have also unearthed a generational player in Dupont at scrum-half, but can they travel and get ‘it’ done when it matters? I’m not willing to bet my hard-earned peanuts on that. However, I definitely need to see more. The caveat to this is obviously the return of Shaun Edwards to Wales, and if anyone can nullify the Welsh attack you assume it would be him!
Wales, on the other hand, are at home (massive tick), playing much more expansive rugby under Pivic (tick), and I bloody love Welsh rugby! Obviously the last point is a bit of a joke but when playing the handicaps, as mentioned above, taking a ‘punt’ on a young, inexperienced French team to do a job at the Principality just doesn’t make any sense to me. If Wales can be 10% more clinical then they were against Ireland they will cover the handicap.
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England vs Ireland (15:00 Sunday)
Clive’s play: England -7 @ 10/11
I know the match against Scotland was a complete non-event but in the 10 minutes of rugby played that day I did think England looked up for it. They were hitting rucks with more power, carrying with much more impetus and generally looked sharper than week 1. Ireland, as I touched upon early, did look much better and were clinical. Their centre combination was powerful and their passing was slick out the back, often outfoxing George North and leaving him in no man’s land. I believe this match will be won out on the flanks. How both teams manipulate the space will settle this one.
Ireland were crisp and clean with their exits and passing out the back door. However, I couldn’t help but feel Nick Tompkins and George North helped the Irish. Ireland beat Wales out wide numerous times, which makes me think George North was overcompensating in defence for the new boy Tompkins. North, in my opinion, believed he couldn’t trust Tompkins (on debut) inside him, so he was too often narrow in defence. Aki and Henshaw are classic up the jumper and run centres, so giving them the extra option of the wide pass played into Ireland’s hands.
England will be much more streetwise in defence. They shut down space nearly as well as the All Blacks, and as a result, Ireland’s back three will not have as much room to manoeuvre. This will force Irelands backs to come back inside playing into England’s more superior back row. Over the ball Ireland are good BUT bloody hell, there will be a game when they get four red cards for killing play. England with the home advantage makes this match a handicap cover for the home town boys.
