The 2020 Six Nations is set for a delayed but dramatic finale on Saturday with three teams still able to win the title: Ireland, England and France.
Below are the permutations for each team to become champions, as well as my best bets for the weekend.
Wales v Scotland – 14:15 GMT – live on BBC One and BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra
Italy v England – 16:45 GMT – live on ITV and BBC Radio 5 Live
France v Ireland – 20:05 GMT – live on BBC Two and BBC One plus BBC Radio 5 Live
Ireland
After beating Italy on Saturday, Ireland have the most straightforward equation. They are the only team with their fate entirely in their own hands. If Ireland earn a bonus-point win over France in Paris – achieved by scoring four tries or more – they are guaranteed to win the title. They could still win the title with a four-point, non-bonus-point win. With England expected to achieve a bonus-point victory over Italy, this would most likely come down to points difference. Ireland’s points difference is currently 23 points better than England so, if Ireland win with four points and England five, Ireland would still win the title as long as England’s margin of victory was not 24 points greater than Ireland’s. Ireland would also be champions with a four-point win over France if England failed to get a winning bonus point, lost or drew with Italy.
If Ireland lose they cannot win the title. Capisce?
England
England are the most likely champions. They will win the title if they beat Italy with a bonus point and France beat Ireland, unless Les Blues earn a bonus-point win and secure a margin of victory two points greater than England’s. If England win with a bonus point and Ireland beat France without a bonus point, the title would come down to points difference. England’s points difference is 23 points worse than Ireland so in that instance they would need to beat Italy by a margin of 24 points more than Ireland’s win. England would also win the title by beating Italy without a bonus point if France also beat Ireland in the same fashion, as long as France’s margin of victory was not two points greater than England’s.
England will be champions if they win and Ireland and France draw. If England lose or draw against Italy, then a win of any description or even a draw for Ireland would see them lift the title.
France
For France to win the Six Nations they must beat Ireland and better England’s result against Italy. If France and England achieve the same result, ie a four-point or five-point win, then France must overhaul England’s points difference total. France currently trail England’s points difference by two so would need a margin of victory three greater than England’s. If the teams finish tied on points and points difference then the championship will be decided on number of tries scored. France have scored 13 to England’s nine.
Scotland
Scotland’s distant title hopes disappeared with Ireland’s bonus-point victory over Italy three days ago, but they will travel to Llanelli for an appointment with Wales in confident mood. They go into the match having easily seen off Georgia in a friendly last week, and will be bolstered by the return of Exeter Chiefs’ trophy double-winning stars Stuart Hogg, Jonny Gray and Sam Skinner. Scotland have not claimed an away win against Wales for 18 years, but they have every chance this weekend.
Wales
Wales, Grand Slam champions last year in head coach Warren Gatland’s final season at the helm, suffered a fourth successive defeat when they went down 38-21 to friendly opponents France three days ago. It is their worst results sequence since 2016, and while they cannot challenge for the Six Nations title, a win is essential on Saturday to halt losing momentum under head coach Wayne Pivac. Wales are certainly good enough to cut loose against any opponent, but the pressure is on.
Italy
Italy are resigned to finishing bottom of the Six Nations for a 15th time, and they continue to make little headway against their Six Nations rivals. They have conceded 144 points and 20 tries in this season’s tournament, and face a Herculean task in preventing a landslide defeat when England arrive in Rome this weekend. With every sizeable loss, the Six Nations promotion and relegation debate screams louder at them.
Wales v Scotland
Wales 2/5 Scotland 21/10 Draw 20/1
Wales -6 @ 19/20
Scotland +6 @ evens
Tie @ 16/1
Bet: 1 point Scotland +6 @ evens
Italy v England
Italy 20/1 England 1/66 Draw 40/1
Italy +32 @19/20
England -32 @ 19/20
Tie @ 25/1
Bet: 3 point Italy +32 @ 19/20
France v Ireland
France 4/7 Ireland 13/8 Draw 18/1
France -4 @ evens
Ireland +4 @ 10/11
Tie @ 25/1
Bet: 2 point Ireland +4 @ 10/11
