Best bets
2pts each-way Tyrrell Hatton @ 12/1
1pt each-way Thomas Pieters @ 18/1
1pt each-way Sergio Garcia @ 14/1
1pt each-way Dustin Johnson @ 15/2
0.5pts each-way Matthew Wolff @ 60/1
view odds
We’re paying SIX places at the Saudi International!
On paper the Saudi International isn’t the most valuable tournament this golfing week – officially it carries a $5m prize fund whereas there’s $8.7m up for grabs in a PGA Tour pro-am at glorious Pebble Beach – but in terms of the game’s global future it is by far the most important.
On top of that $5m there’s a reported $15m being dished out in appearance money to entice golfers of the calibre of former world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, box-office bomber Bryson DeChambeau, all-time-great Phil Mickelson and European aces like major champions Sergio Garcia and Shane Lowry to that controversial country.
No surprise there as back-handers have been part of the game for decades and DJ has not only benefited from Saudi largesse for the past three years but has snaffled a mega-share of the prize money as well as a double winner there. In fact, Graeme McDowell is the only man to have finished in front of him in three previous contests.
The problem now is that the tournament is no longer part of the European (now DP World) Tour but as the Asian Tour’s flagship it is seen as the launchpad for a rival ‘world tour’ to the existing main operators. And, with golfing great Greg Norman as their frontman, poaching big names is part of the process.
It is a clear warning shot that the Saudis have much more than the Asian Tour on their agenda when 30 or so lavishly-rewarded stars tee off on the Royal Greens north of Jeddah on Thursday. Sky, with their DP World Tour ties, won’t be there but golf fans can see it live and for nothing on FreeSports daily from 8am in an early-morning clash with Sky’s Ras al Khaimah Championship from the UAE.
Officially, it is all in the great cause of growing the game in that part of the world but we all suspect the International is a precursor to something more far-reaching with troubling times ahead.
The “rebels” have had to apply for special exemptions from their respective tours to participate which were only granted by the PGA Tour in return for a guarantee that the Pebble Beach Pro-Am would be supported in a future year.
Saudi Arabia’s human rights record has not put many off – as Lowry says “I’m not a politician, I’m a professional golfer” – and this column is not concerned with taking sides but in identifying the winner.
Suffice to say that while much that goes on in Saudi outrages the western world, I never heard anyone call Donald Trump or Boris Johnson paragons of virtue either. And multi-millionaires with bottomless pension pots saying they’re just safeguarding their families’ future does not sit well with ordinary folk trying to make ends meet.
In the circumstances, actually winning the golf tournament is almost the last thing on anybody’s mind but it would come as no surprise if a European were to lower the colours of favourite DJ as McDowell did in 2020.
Johnson’s return to the fray at Torrey Pines after putting the clubs away in October was competent rather than earth-shattering but any competition rust will be out of the system and having shot 44 under par for his 12 rounds in Saudi so far, it’s hard to leave him out of the staking plan even if only as a saver.
Xander Schauffele and DeChambeau are the next two on the world rankings but neither impressed at Torrey and I’m more impressed by the European trio of Tyrrell Hatton, Thomas Pieters and Sergio Garcia.
Hatton beat himself when sixth in Abu Dhabi and fourth in Dubai, often looking the best golfer in the field, and could easily make it third time lucky. After Rahm, he is my idea of Europe’s best golfer, a view Rory McIlroy did nothing to dispel with an embarrassing performance in Dubai on Sunday.
Sixth on the 7010-yard par 72 Royal Greens 12 months ago, feisty Hatton has 119 to beat including the Asian Tour’s top 30. Japan’s latest star Takumi Kanaya could be Asia’s pick but preference is for the becalmed Pieters, who has overcome the temperament and putting problems that stopped him realising his full potential after a dazzling Ryder Cup debut six years ago.
The tall Belgian’s newly-confident putting stroke and laid-back attitude under severe pressure were key ingredients in last month’s Abu Dhabi triumph. He has excellent Saudi credentials too – third in 2020, tenth last year.
There was much to like about Garcia’s first crack at 2022, a solid 12th in Dubai, which, taken in conjunction with Saudi form of sixth and 12th, augurs well for an improved second outing.
Aussie aces Cam Smith, winner over Jon Rahm in Hawaii, and Marc Leishman have showed their hand this campaign and while DeChambeau is again threatening to bludgeon the course into submission, last year’s 18th place suggests that tactic won’t work.
Tony Finau will find backers after last year’s share of second but the big fella has yet to fire this year and I’d rather take a chance on one of the few young bucks taking part, Matt Wolff, a birdie machine like DeChambeau who could lead the bigger guns a merry dance if he fancies the job. Still only 22, he’s a special if unpredictable talent.
Best bets
2pts each-way Rasmus Hojgaard @ 28/1
1.5pts each-way Padraig Harrington @ 50/1
1pt each-way Jordan Smith @ 20/1
1pt each-way Adrian Meronk @ 22/1
0.5pts each-way Matti Schmid @ 50/1
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Will it be the old – Padraig Harrington and Richard Bland with 99 years between them – or the new, 20-year-old Rasmus Hojgaard or Adrian Meronk, bidding to be Poland’s first winner on the DP World Tour, emerging triumphant as first winner of the Ras Al Khaimah Championship?
And where the heck IS Ras Al Khaimah? Thanks to wonderful Google I can reveal it is the fourth largest of the seven United Arab Emirates behind Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah. The names of the other three would make a good Mastermind question.
Head 90 miles north-west from Dubai, as most of this week’s field have, and you come to Al Hamra, a typical desert course, a par 72 with four long par fives stretching it to 7325 yards and plenty of water hazards.
This is its main-tour bow although the 2008 Harridine layout did host three Challenge Tour competitions from 2016 to 2018, won by Jordan Smith, Jens Dantorp and Adri Arnaus.
Smith is second favourite this week behind Ryder Cup man Bernd Wiesberger and just ahead of Meronk, who was beaten in a 2017 play-off there in his Challenge Tour days. The 6ft 6in Hamburg-born Pole demonstrated how far he has come since when a bold fourth in superior company at the Dubai Desert Classic on Sunday and must surely break his main-tour duck soon.
It could be this week if he has recovered from the experience of being in the hunt in mighty company for most of the weekend. He has been knocking on the door for a while now – two seconds, a third and a fourth – and that was the third time he has contended in the UAE.
As for Smith, he’s going to be a threat too, having just posted top-12s in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, while those Challenge Tour events, distant history though they now are, also point to the chance of Frenchman Romain Langasque, fourth and sixth on two Al Hamra visits and 12th and 18th in the UAE this past fortnight.
With only a quarter of the prize-money offered by Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the third leg of the Desert Swing finds the big names moving elsewhere or taking a break.
Fair play though to Ras Al Khaimah as the cancellation of the Qatar Masters has put Al Hamra in the frame for back-to-back tournaments. Only the names change – this week the Championship, next week the Classic.
As Wiesberger faded with a 76 in Dubai on Sunday – not for the first time – I’m taking him on. Dane Hojgaard took advantage of the Austrian’s last-hole meltdown in Switzerland last year, sinking a huge putt to do it. Already a three-time winner in his short career, Rasmus knows how to close the deal, unlike many of this week’s rivals.
And if Phil Mickelson can win a PGA after turning 50, there’s no reason why Harrington cannot do the same, not that he’ll need to be that good here. Pod’s last four outings (9-20-8-12), the latest three in the UAE, say there’s plenty of life in this old dog.
The winner of two Opens and a PGA Championship in his heyday, Harrington told Sky’s interviewer on Sunday there’s even better to come. Why not now at this easier level?
Matti Schmid, the 24-year-old German who won the Silver Medal at The Open and almost struck soon after turning pro when taking runner-up honours at the Dutch Open, was also in excellent shape in Dubai for three rounds.
The Rookie of the Year will soon be winning at this level and merits a small interest but a former holder of that title, Scot Robert MacIntyre, continues to disappoint.
Late bloomer Bland, 49 this week, rarely does and nearly gave himself an early birthday present on Sunday, forcing himself into a play-off as Rory McIlroy imploded but couldn’t match Viktor Hovland’s extra-time birdie. Provided there’s no scar tissue, he could well contend again.
Best bets
2pts each-way Jason Day @ 18/1
1pt each-way Daniel Berger @ 14/1
1pt each-way Jordan Spieth @ 18/1
1pt each-way Kevin Kisner @ 40/1
0.5pts each-way Maverick McNealy @ 25/1
0.5pts each-way Michael Thompson @ 50/1
view odds
FedEx Cup winner Patrick Cantlay heads Fitzdares’ betting for a Pebble Beach National Pro-Am depleted by the defection of evergreen regulars Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson, among many others, to pastures greener (or should it be sandier?) in Saudi Arabia.
Cantlay was a controversial choice (by his peers) for 2021 PGA Tour Player of the Year, his four victories in the 20/21 wraparound season inflated as the beneficiary of Jon Rahm’s wretched luck in testing Covid-positive just as he was about to defend a six-shot lead going into the final day at Memorial.
Rahm’s feats in winning the US Open and ending the year as world No. 1 despite forfeiting an almost certain $1.6m payday at Jack’s Place reads more impressively. so does Collin Morikawa’s feat in bagging a second Major at 24 on first sight of Royal St George’s on top of one of the big WGC championships and finishing No. 1 in Europe.
Cantlay certainly stands out in an ordinary field but the memory of him failing to finish the job last year after kicking off with a 62 stays in the memory as does his latest effort in lesser company when seeming to be in control of the American Express at Palm Springs after a dazzling start but again putting in only an ordinary weekend shift.
So while last year’s third remains more likely than most to prevail, there’s no juice in a quote of 6/1 and with 250/1 and 80/1 shots winning since the tour returned to the mainland, it could pay to look elsewhere.
The 2017 winner Jordan Spieth will have his supporters but it is another former world No. 1 that attracts – forgotten man Jason Day, who was well nigh unbeatable in 2015-16 when he won eight times. The Aussie star is still a fair way from that but the first top-five on Sunday since the 2020 PGA Championship by this course specialist makes him of great each-way interest at 18/1.
Day couldn’t quite finish it off at the Farmers but his third place behind Luke List at Torrey Pines put down a serious marker for a tournament with a format where he clearly feels at home having finished 11-5-4-2-5-11-4 the last seven years. Included in that run were several years when his game elsewhere was generally disappointing.
Before the Torrey third he had slipped to 129th in the rankings, often held back by chronic back problems. It is worth noting that he said last week it was the first time he had felt 100% fit for a long while.
He is still not the super-confident Day of old -a few years ago he wouldn’t have made the errors down the stretch that allowed List and Will Zalatoris to finish ahead of him – but with only ten of the world’s top 50 in opposition, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will take less winning than the Farmers.
Day’s consistency in a format which pairs 156 pros with 156 ams for at least three days (and all four if you are in the top 25 teams after all three venues have been played) is revealing. He is a slow player who doesn’t mind fourball speed at hackers’ plodding pace.
They play one round apiece over Pebble Beach (6972 yards, par 72), Spyglass Hills (7041/72) and Monterey Peninsula (6951/71) with a Sunday showdown at the iconic host links.
Maverick McNealy who had a hole in one at Torrey and finished off birdie-eagle to round off a bad Sunday on an upswing could threaten. His first three rounds suggested a far better final position than 30th and although this ex-amateur star has yet to win, one of his second places came at a spectator-free Pebble last year when Daniel Berger snaked in a 31ft eagle putt at the last to nick it.
McNealy once lived near the 15th green of spectacular Pebble Beach, a pussycat of a course until the Pacific winds start to blow (not forecast), so is in familiar territory. As the young Californian has a big local following, the absence of fans last year due to Covid and the lack of atmosphere as there were no celebs either were not to his advantage.
Now fans and celebs return – actor Bill Murray and boxing champion Canelo Alvarez among them – as does the Monterey course, ditched last year for better Covid security even if five-time champion Mickelson and dual winner DJ do not.
Spieth, third last year with Cantlay, won’t be losing any sleep over the absentees and is on a mission to atone for last year when he led by one going into Sunday and never looked like bringing it home as he had done so easily four years earlier.
Another with obvious claims is Ryder Cup teammate Berger who opened 2022 brightly with a Kapalua fifth. A top-20 at the weekend wasn’t too shabby either and a successful defence would not surprise.
With far less ability but in great nick is the bushy-bearded Michael Thompson who added a Farmers 11th to his Sony fifth and looks ready for the third win of an up-and-down career. The 2020 3M Open champion posted a top-ten when Mickelson took the honours here for a fifth time in 2019. The rest of his course form is nothing special but he still merits a small interest.
Dodgy putter Will Zalatoris has a Torrey hangover to overcome after blowing a golden opportunity to open has account on Sunday but dual Pebble winner Brandt Snedeker and Yorkshireman Matt Fitzpatrick both putt like gods and must be considered on these short resort courses.
Brian Harman, Seamus Power and Kevin Kisner also know how to wield their flat stick, Kisner going close to giving us a nice-priced winner at Waialae. He is 43 under par for his eight 2022 rounds to date and trending the right way after eighth and third in the two Hawaiian tournaments.
It’s a pity his Pebble record isn’t more compelling – only one top-ten – but current form counts for plenty. A cool (16C) but generally sunny week with little wind is forecast so expect low scoring.
