RUGBY WORLD CUP 2023
SEMI-FINALS
What a weekend that was. Two of the best games of rugby I’ve ever seen and two of the worst results from a betting point of view…. Ireland to make the final, France to win it. Both now gone and a reminder of what a difference small margins make to a game of rugby and S Barnes betting account. Oh well, if you have to lose, let the contest be one for the ages. That was the case in both the main games in Paris. It wasn’t a case of being better so much as coming out on top in the moments that matter. I think of Jordie Barrett’s hand beneath the ball as Ireland drove for the try lines and a place in the semi finals. Great stuff.
The other games relied on the occasion and atmosphere for their drama. Marseille was very much the attendant to a weekend when France, Ireland, South Africa and New Zealand played the part of Hamlet. Indeed a sporting tragedy for two great teams who staggered off the main stage, prematurely.
BET OF THE WEEKEND
Before we get to Sunday and England versus South Africa, my bet of the weekend. Damien Penaud leads the race for top try scorer with 6 to his name but that’s his lot. Against Argentina, Will Jordan, with his sublime support lines could catch or even overtake him.
A likely New Zealand final against South Africa would not be the try free final from 1995. Both teams are so quick with ball in hand that there is always a threat. Someone of Jordan’s calibre to be 11/8 and only a try behind with two remaining games strikes me as a cracking punt.
Recommended bet of the weekend: Will Jordan 11/8 to be Top try scorer in RWC.
Argentina @ 17/2
Draw @ 50/1
New Zealand @ 1/14
view odds
That leaves Argentina to overturn the odds against New Zealand. At 17/2 they are long odds at semi final time but I couldn’t/can’t imagine them beating the All Blacks. What could be considered is whether an 18 point start at evens is too tight. On all known form the answer has to be a resounding yes; even with the weather potentially turning after France’s long and late summer.
Of the 4 teams, I would back New Zealand to produce the most spellbinding rugby in the wind and rain. They are used to sheeting rain in both the South and North Islands. Against the greatest Ireland team of all time, they were superb with the ball in hand. Against lesser sides like Italy, Namibia and Uruguay they have been irrepressible.
Argentina put together a tough 50 minute fightback to foil Welsh dreams of a semi final place but the gap between Wales and New Zealand is immense. The bet I like on Friday night – as well as New Zealand 19/20 to cover 18 points, is another 19/20. This time total points over 48.5. The Argentine team will be lifted by their fabulous and fanatical following. They could have their moments but even if they force a Kiwi wobble, the All Blacks are simply too good for the Pumas.
I suggest New Zealand minus 18 points at 19/20 as well as backing at smaller odds 48.5 points plus. Just wait a while to check the weather….the one proviso.
England @ 9/2
Draw @ 28/1
South Africa @ 2/11
view odds
And so to Saturday night and England’s attempt to stun the world and the Springboks by finding a performance that has yet to be hinted at through all of 2023, let alone a World Cup campaign where luck of the draw has played a large part in England scrambling to the last 4. Still, while there is life, there is hope. There’s also the question of whether Sunday night’s monster of a match against France might have left the defending champions with less than a full tank.
The Springboks named their team early. A classic case of offsetting any talk of tiredness. Their management has been masterful in all things tactical to date but this game was on such a level no one can be certain if they will be quite the same team. They have opted for the same starting XV. It’s like a statement of psychological intent. As for England’s selection, this is as near as the two SB’s have come to agreement!
4 years ago in the final, England were stuffed in the scrum. For all his broken field quality, Ellis Genge is vulnerable at this set piece. With inclement weather the chances are for plenty of scrums. Joe Marler, the stronger scrummager is the right call to start. Otherwise, South Africa earn penalties and kick for the corner. Maybe goal within comfortable range. While the elegant Manie Libbock is 10, the odds are the Springboks going for 5 and 7 points. When Handre Pollard replaces him, it becomes a case of keeping the scoreboard ticking with 3s. This England squad is not set out for chasing.
There’s also Libbock’s cross kick game. He strokes it beautifully from left to right and in Kurt-Lee Arundsee, the Springboks have a right winger to be mentioned in the same breath as the glorious Cheslin Kolbe. With Damien Willemse making up the back 3, England will be hoping for more rain to slow them down and make the ball more slippery. Freddie Steward will have to work out where the kicks are targeted.
I’ll take Kurt-Lee Arundsee to be first try scorer at 15/2.
Anyway, back to the scrum, where England have to establish surprise control; another good selection is that of Leicester’s George Martin. Sam Chessum, his club team mate, is quite an athlete but Martin is a lump to help in the scrum. Maro Itoje has been off his very best for a few years and in that time he has missed men like Joe Launchbury and George Kruis. A better scrum and a liberated Maro going toe to toe with Eben Etzebeth would be the sort of psychological win to really establish self belief.
Yes, I can see England producing their best effort in the tournament by some distance. They can throw everything at a Springbok team that might just be at 95%. But that, I fear, won’t be enough, truth be told, it won’t stop South Africa prevailing, giving a 13 point start at evens.
We are all doing our best to talk up the semis and England’s chances in particular. I can feel my brain looking for the unlikeliest of angles. I want the best teams in the final but not a poor pair of semis.
Being realistic, I fear, 1/4, South Africa v New Zealand in the final, is a horrible price but it’s buying money.
…isn’t it?
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