AFC CONFERENCE WINNER
Kansas City Chiefs @ 10/3
Buffalo Bills @ 7/2
Baltimore Ravens @ 9/2
New England Patriots @ 9/2
Tennessee Titans @ 11/1
Cincinatti Bengals @ 16/1
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December in the NFL is one of the more brutal months in the world of sports. A relatively condensed regular season (17 games) compared to most other major leagues around the world means that many teams remain in contention for a playoff spot as they enter the final month, even if those claims are somewhat spurious. The bruising schedule is uncompromising, and players routinely play carrying some degree of injury. Teams tape up, ride through the pain, and push on for a seat at the table, and this season, the stakes are particularly high because the race for the Super Bowl is as wide open as I can remember.
At this stage of proceedings there are always tiers of contenders – serious, possible, and longshot. What’s unusual is how teams seem to be rolling between these three tiers with alarming frequency. Just when we think we’ve worked the picture out, it changes again.
Take the LA Rams, a team that’s gone all in for the Super Bowl this year, by dealing away future draft picks for players that can win them it all now. Matthew Stafford, the veteran QB came in to replace Jared Goff, star edge rusher Von Miller was prised away from the Broncos, and they’ve even rolled the dice on talented but underperforming Odell Beckham, at a much lower cost, but nevertheless a further indication that they have an All-Star, win-now mentality this year.
But the Hollywood gloss has faded after a bright start, three losses on the bounce, and an offense that began in effervescent fashion now struggling to find its rhythm. McVay, predictably under fire in this “what have you done for me lately?” culture we’re all trapped in will point to the current champs the Bucs, who last season, at 7-5 were written off in terms of making the playoffs, let alone winning the whole thing, and the vet laden rosters draw comparisons.
Indeed, the Bucs remain the most likely champions, returning all their 22 starters from last season, and despite having to navigate a depleted secondary, are doing just fine. Tom Brady is having a superb season, the 44-year-old reigning Super Bowl MVP in simultaneously sensational and cerebral form, spraying it around to his remarkably deep collection of playmakers.
There’s an inevitability about the inclusion of Brady’s former team, the New England Patriots in this top tier of challengers, though very few saw it coming, with the Pats struggling with life after Brady, and suffering an indifferent start to the season.
What connects both teams a sense of identity, with New England quietly building a retro leaning run first offense around rookie QB Mac Jones, surrounding him with capable if not elite pieces who are all playing a role, expertly choregraphed by Josh McDaniels. Jones is tasked with not losing games – as opposed to having too much responsibility to put the team on his shoulders – and the balance is sound, given the (once again) formidable defense built by Bill Belichick. They’ve drafted well, uncharacteristically spent a fortune in free agency, and are benefiting from a division that’s not as challenging as they expected, despite an improving Dolphins who they still have to play. This weekend, they meet the Bills in the first of two games that will determine the AFC East division, and quite conceivably the number one seed in the conference.
Buffalo, by virtue of a shock 9-6 loss to the hapless Jags – which may go down one of the strangest games in recent times – and a follow up blowout loss to the Colts are trending down, but to overlook them is a mistake. They’re a well-coached side, again one with a clear offensive identity, though perhaps suffer from too much reliance on QB Josh Allen’s dual threat capability. Keep him in the pocket, which Belichick will aim to make his primary objective, and they can be bottled up.
The same challenge is faced by the Baltimore Ravens, though it’s easier said than done to contain Lamar Jackson. His critics suggest his passing game isn’t accurate enough for him to be a top tier quarterback – which has some validity, but is to oversimplify, his receiving options significantly strengthened year on year with rookie Rashod Batemen a key addition. He’s not at Patrick Mahomes’ level with his arm but he doesn’t need to be ; his dynamism is often overpowering, and his aerial ability good enough as a result to keep them a dangerous, if flawed side to face in the post season.
As for Mahomes, the Chiefs have been written off for much of the year – far too prematurely – only to freewheel their way back into the favourites pool with 3 key wins on the bounce, against Dallas and Green Bay, and the Vegas Raiders. Their offense is still not entirely clicking, but improving, the rebooted line in particular. So is their much-maligned defense, and apologists will argue that they’ve got away with some indifferent performances, and profligacy with the ball (their -7 turnover differential ranks them 27th in the NFL) and the Chiefs will level out as they hit the deeper waters of the post season. A key here is their record and seeding – the road to the Super Bowl in LA through Arrowhead sounds daunting for most of their rivals, such is their homefield advantage.
The Titans need to hang on to welcome back their superstar RB Derrick Henry in January. All teams suffer with injuries to key players, but his is perhaps the most significant injury suffered by a team so far – outside of a QB going down which blew up both the Saints and Seahawks chances.
That issue hasn’t affected the Cardinals hugely though. Arizona, another intriguing front runner, still in possession of a top seed despite injuries to their QB Kyler Murray and his star receiver Deandre Hopkins. Both should return this week, and a case can be put that at (relative) full strength, the Cardinals have been the most complete team in the league this season, a defense that goes under the radar at times, despite being a Top 3 rated DVOA unit (ref: Football Outsiders). Concerns remain about their relative inexperience, not just with Murray but also their Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury and the lack of playoff reps. When it comes to the crunch, and it’s that tandem against Brady and Arians, or even McVay and Stafford, how much will that matter?
Both Dallas & Green Bay pose perhaps the biggest threats to the Bucs in the NFC. The Cowboys are flying offensively with a returning Dak Prescott generally on point, and a Defense featuring rookie sensation Micah Parsons and a returning Demarcus Lawrence outperforming expectations, but the ground game tag team of Zeke Elliot and Tony Pollard, which looked so potent earlier on in the season, is slowing, mainly due to Elliot’s energy waning, and he seems to be playing through injury. The Packers have injury issues of their own, most notably to the offensive line, and RB Aaron Jones, but with Aaron Rodgers playing at a similar level to last year’s MVP run, despite his off the field controversies, they could pose the biggest threat to Brady.
Out of the longshot pack, a gaggle of teams can put a run together and emerge as the scrappy wildcard insurgent – including the 49’ers, the Raiders and the Bengals, but there are currently 12 teams in the AFC with a .500 record or better, and even the Dolphins at 5-7 will feel their weakish run in gives them a shot. The NFC is similarly blurry, though not as deep. Realistically, the Falcons holding the water margin at 5-6 but highly unlikely to make the cut.
