PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE
Sunday 6th October Longchamp, 3:20pm
Look De Vega @ 4/1
Sosie @ 9/2
Los Angeles @ 5/1
Shin Emperor @ 11/2
Al Riffa @ 9/1
view odds
*prices correct at time of writing.
THE RACE
During its 104 years the €5m Qatar-sponsored Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – ‘the Arc’ – at ParisLongchamp has become European flat racing’s most prized trophy. Going into the 2024 edition, the race of Ribot, Sea-Bird, Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars, Enable, Alpinista and many more doesn’t have a ready-made superstar but soon after 3-20 on Sunday that notion could easily have been turned on its head.
THE MARKET
Look De Vega has suffered only one defeat, when third behind Sosie and Delius, beaten one-and-a-half lengths and two, in the Prix Niel, his first attempt at twelve furlongs. That day he hadn’t raced for three months-plus, since an impressive win in the ten-furlong Prix du Jockey Club, with Sosie seen off by more than two lengths.
Sceptics wonder if he benefitted from getting the run of the race at Chantilly and whether his stamina drained in the Niel, while supporters believe he simply got tired after a break and will be cherry-ripe now. Meanwhile, Sosie, by Sea The Stars, well-drawn and unbeaten at Longchamp, is trying to give Andre Fabre a ninth Arc success (as do outsiders Mqse De Sevigne and Sevenna’s Knight); previous to the Niel, Sosie stamped his authority on the Grand Prix de Paris, over the course and distance, accounting for Delius on that occasion too.
Having finished third in the Derby, Coolmore’s Los Angeles (Ryan Moore) captured the Irish Derby and the Great Voltigeur before finishing fourth – with a slightly luckless Shin Emperor just in front – in the Irish Champion Stakes. The extra quarter-mile will suit, though that’s also the case for Shin Emperor, a full-brother to 2020 Arc winner (on heavy) Sottsass, trying to give Japan a first victory after a series of close-run things – at Leopardstown, it was suggested that Shin Emperor was only 70 or 80% ready.
Japanese-part-owned Al Riffa, Joseph O’Brien’s Grosser Preis von Berlin winner being ridden by jockey Yutaka Take, has some outstanding form in defeats by Ace Impact and (conceding weight) by City Of Troy in the Eclipse. The supplemented filly Bluestocking, trained by Ralph Beckett, has thrived as a four-year-old especially when beating Aventure in the Vermeille in a markedly better time than Sosie recorded in the Niel, and she’ll relish anticipated conditions.
Fellow Brit Sunway arrives with form figures of 7–2–4–3, all in top-level line-ups. Last year’s fifth Continuous, Coolmore’s second runner, wasn’t disgraced at all that day.
THE WINNER
I’m going with a globally historic result for Shin Emperor – you?
CORN’S QUARTET
It’s not been a vintage season for Team Gosden but Field Of Gold (1-30) promises much for the future.
Regular foes Bradsell and Believing are 2–0 in recent encounters on better ground, but in the Abbaye (2-05) Believing has better luck than she’s been having draw-wise.
Prix de Diane winner Sparkling Plenty (4-05) looked ready to sparkle when behind Bluestocking last time, and has anyone got better form credentials for the Foret (4-40) than Ramatuelle?
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