France @ 11/8
Ireland @ 11/4
England @ 3/1
Scotland @ 9/1
Wales @ 11/1
Italy @ 1000/1
view odds
France are the last of this season’s serious competitors to kick off, with their home game against Italy on Sunday. But they are the first nation I’ll be tipping to win. Not to beat Italy, that goes without saying, rather to win the Grand Slam.
Ireland and England have form from the autumn; Scotland are developing into a dangerous side and when will we non-Welsh stop dismissing that great rugby nation? Yet France have the form lines established over recent years to tilt for glory in 2022.
They have played some scintillating stuff since the last World Cup but the results haven’t always matched the performance. They remind me of the England 2003 team who pushed the boundaries of what they could and couldn’t do before settling on what was required to win in Australia.
The World Cup is a priority but this tournament is part of the French targeting. The epic win against New Zealand in November was the next stage in French progress. They have been preparing for this year’s 6 Nations in camp with the French Foreign Legion. An organisation where discipline is paramount. It has been anything but that for France throughout the nation’s rugby history. A disciplined France – allied with the genius of Antoine Dupont, the stunning centre play of Gael Fickou and a powerful pack – are going to take some stopping.
That’s before we consider the fixtures. Fabien Galthie’s team have three games in Paris. Victory over New Zealand suggests home advantage can become an inspiration as opposed to the burden it has sometimes appeared over the years. The nation is behind them. An Italian win on Sunday would be one of the greatest shocks in 6 Nations history.
The key games come later however with the bookmakers other fancies, Ireland and England, travelling to Paris. That appears a massive advantage against their two perceived rivals. Ireland enter the tournament with a string of superb efforts in the tail end of 2022 but all of them were in Dublin. Paris and Twickenham will fully test them.
As for England, Edinburgh and Paris range from awkward to awful assignments. Ireland have beaten them at Twickenham in recent memory while Scotland are being backed for Saturday’s opener.
Edinburgh and Cardiff are not easy games for France but if they maintain their shape and discipline they are expected to beat these sides. At 100-30, they are generously priced to win the Grand Slam. I would also invest a small wager on Dupont at 25-1 to be the top try scorer. His support play puts him in so many good positions to turn opportunities into scores. Damien Penaud, the winger with an outstanding work rate is the more obvious bet at 9-1.
So much for the entire tournament, what about the immediate future? Scotland’s game with England promises to be a tight affair with Scotland holding a decent recent record against England. A full Murrayfield also boosts Scottish hopes. Perhaps Eddie Jones isn’t kidding when calling the hosts `hot favourites.’
He has other things to do this week than checking odds. If he did, he’d see England are just about odds on to win although I have noted a slight shift in prices. Maybe the bookmakers believe Jones. I was narrowly on England’s side until their team was named. I’m not sure Sam Simmonds is the right pick in the expected conditions, especially as Alex Dombrandt has such a symbiotic relationship with Marcus Smith.
Behind the scrum, Henry Slade slotted into 12 against South Africa. He seemed a perfect match with the Harlequin fly half but most of Slade’s best rugby has been in wider channels. It could get claustrophobic in Edinburgh. I was one of the few people who agreed with Jones when he played Elliot Daly on the wing or full back. I am now one of the few who think Daly could be more liability than match winner at 13 as Jones goes with the majority of English punters.
England impressed me in the Autumn – much more than Scotland did – but Russell is now in form and Scotland can benefit from any poor conditions. Smith is the most reliable goal kicker on the field but Scotland showed the sort of discipline needed to keep the penalty opportunities down. I won’t be betting myself but, if I did, Scotland at 5-4 would be of small interest. Perhaps the home side at 4-1 to win between 1-5 points is more appealing still. If Scotland are going to win, it will surely be close. A small bet with a greater potential reward. A draw wouldn’t surprise me, it could be THAT tight.
The tournament kicks off in Dublin where Ireland are strong favourites to beat Wales. 1-7 on Ireland and 11-2 against Wales are a stunning pair of prices, a reflection of Ireland’s tremendous Autumn (and finish in last year’s Six Nations) in which they overwhelmed New Zealand. In contrast an injury riddled Welsh side, though the defending champions, were beaten with ease by the All Blacks and pushed to the limits by Fiji.
Form lines justify the confidence. When I read the handicap gave Wales a 14 point start, the initial reaction was one of shock. Wales are often underestimated, frequently finding unexpected levels of form in this tournament. Pondering the two sides, the difference of two converted scores looked eminently achievable from an Irish perspective – and that’s with Josh Adams being one of tips as first try scorer at 15-1. That’s way too big for this prolific finisher who starts outside centre.
If Ireland weaves their spells early on, don’t be surprised to see Ireland’s darling, Jonny Sexton stride over for the first try at a tasty 25-1.
Weekend best bets
France to win Grand Slam @ 100/30
Antoine Dupont to be tournament top try scorer @ 25/1
Damien Penaud to be tournament top try scorer @ 9/1
Scotland to beat England @ 5/4
Scotland to beat England by 1-5 points @ 4/1
Ireland -14 point handicap to beat Wales @ 10/11
Josh Adams first try scorer vs Ireland @ 15/1
Jonny Sexton first try scorer vs Wales @ 25/1
