LIV LONDON
Best bets
2.5pts each-way Patrick Reed @ 18/1
2pts win Brooks Koepka @ 8/1
1pt each-way Bryson DeChambeau @ 11/1
0.5pt each-way Paul Casey @ 35/1
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The wheel has turned full circle and we’re back where it all started for LIV, at The Centurion club in Hertfordshire for the second of two visits to Europe this year, quiet American Talor Gooch having just won a Valderrama thriller in Spain for his third $4m takeaway of 2023.
Can he turn three into four at LIV London? When he won his first LIV title in Australia, he went back-to-back by knocking off LIV Singapore the following April week. Can history repeat itself?
When he last played Centurion, he could do no better than ninth in a tournament dominated by South Africans, Charl Schwartzel winning from Hennie Du Plessis with Branden Grace sharing third. Now Schwartzel is a 125/1 shot with Fitzdares as he has done precious little of note since.
LIV’s opening salvo at the new 54-hole shotgun-start format didn’t thrill everyone as there weren’t enough marquee names to go round and the sycophantic TV coverage on their own channel was dire.
But that was then, this is now. The Saudi-backed tour has twice as many tournaments these days and big drawcards like Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau and Open champion Cameron Smith have made the big switch since last year’s London tryout.
With minor events on the two main tours this week, there’s no disputing the best golfers are teeing it up in England so head to St Albans if you want a taste of the cream … or Wimbledon if you want strawberries to go with it.
Koepka, Cammie Smith, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson and moneybags Gooch make up a tasty dish but you will notice that none of the above are Brits. Europe did find one LIV winner in Henrik Stenson on his debut after being lured away from captaining our Ryder Cup side in the autumn with a signing-on fee not unadjacent to $50m.
Whatever the Brits – Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Richard Bland and others in the twilight of their careers – have been paid, it is far more than their performances under the LIV banner deserve.
Now with home advantage and on a shortish, straightforward course measuring little more than 7000 yards and offering only two par fives for the bombers, this is their last-chance saloon.
I foolishly thought their experience with Valderrama over the years would make them at least one-up on the American raiders but couldn’t have been more wrong. Once again they were at the back-end of the leaderboard. Even course specialist Sergio Garcia, on paper Europe’s best chance of a winner there, failed to fire.
If there is to be a British winner, then Casey would be the one. But this a tough school, a $4m first prize demands focus, nobody is going to give it to you and Casey needs to give it his full attention.
One who has nothing to prove is Koepka, a close third in Spain on Sunday, twice a LIV winner and now US PGA champion again, and for a guy they say gets himself up only for the majors, he looked to be very much in the zone at the weekend.
Gooch leading him now by three wins to his two is just the target Koepka needs to go through all the gears and he is the man to beat. I would rather be on Gooch – to whom my grateful thanks for that 16/1 weekend life-saver – than DJ and Smith but maybe it’s time for a new winner.
The controversial Reed fits the bill nicely but Sergio Garcia, Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann and Casey are on the same track too – all hoping to break their LIV duck. This is one-time Masters champion Reed’s 16th start with LIV and nobody tries harder. His short game is right up there with the best. Only his driving gives cause for concern and Centurion, a par 70 of 7068 yards, is not super-tough off the tee. It’s easy to forget he was fourth in this year’s Masters. His LIV record is a model of consistency missing only that elusive W. Runner-up to Koepka in Bangkok, three times third, fifth last time out at Valderrama … his turn must surely come soon.
If the declining Garcia can’t win at his beloved Valderrama he probably can’t win anywhere but he did make a LIV playoff in Singapore in April when Gooch landed the second leg of his 2023 trilogy.
I’m not ruling Gooch out but Centurion isn’t as demanding as Valderrama and his great positional work may not give him the same edge the Spanish layout did. Even so, we know he’s bang in form and he’s one of the few at the top at peak rather than past his sell-by date.
The real DeChambeau finally showed up at Valderrama when losing out to Gooch’s last-hole birdie but had to hole a number of testing putts to stay with the winner as his driving wasn’t totally his friend. He must be worth a bet while this enigmatic character who plays golf his way is still in the zone.
On home turf Casey who missed tournaments last year with health issues but is fully fit these days and worth risking at 35/1. He’s had four top-six finishes since taking the LIV shilling but he’s better than that and he’s the one Brit, begging Westwood’s pardon, capable of winning in this elite company.
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