Best bets
2pts each-way Jordan Spieth @ 12/1
2pts each-way Scottie Scheffler @ 7/1
1.5pts each-way Brooks Koepka @ 33/1
1pt each-way Justin Rose @ 50/1
1pt each-way Tony Finau @ 25/1
0.5pt each-way Patrick Reed @ 50/1
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This is no ordinary Masters. For the first time we’ve got the ‘good guys’ versus the ‘baddies’ as 18 LIV Golf rebels lock horns with the PGA Tour loyalists, we’ve got the next chapters in the long-running Tiger Woods comeback saga and Rory McIlroy’s grand slam quest and we’ve got Scottie Scheffler taking dead aim at becoming only the fourth golfer ever to win back-to-back Green Jackets.
And that’s just for starters. The 87th Masters at hallowed Augusta National, Georgia, promises much more: a first Green Jacket for Jon Rahm perhaps or, horror of horrors, a potential Sunday afternoon scenario that’s already giving the powers-that-be sleepless nights, a LIV winner.
Or something else entirely, like a champion out of left field like Danny Willett, 66/1 winner in 2016 and before him Larry Mize in 1987, Zach Johnson in 2007 and Trevor Immelman in 2008, all at three-figure odds. Short hitter Johnson played the 16 par fives in a best-of-the-week 11 under par without hitting any of them in two, such was the magic in his wedge play and putter.
Only 88 go to post in the most punter-friendly of the Majors because it’s always played on the same course and there are so many who can be instantly ruled out, like the seven amateurs and seven venerable old Augusta heroes there to enjoy the Champions Dinner and the craic. Only the eternally youthful Bernhard Langer, now 65 but still winning on the Legends circuit, is remotely likely to be there for the weekend.
Facing them all will be a more severe test with the 13th, the final hole on treacherous Amen Corner, extended 35 yards to deter the bombers from corner-cutting the dogleg and setting up eagles. It’s still only 545 yards but the additional yardage on the what was easiest of the par fives will take more prisoners.
Birdie the four par fives, survive the card-wrecking short 12th, stay dry around Rae’s Creek, put your iron shots on the ‘right’ side of the pins to avoid triple-putting on crazy-fast greens and you’re looking at the next Masters champion on this beguiling 7545-yard piece of real estate that requires patience and plenty of knowing.
First-timers typically don’t win – Fuzzy Zoeller in 1989 was the last – but Jordan Spieth is still kicking himself for not doing so on his 2014 debut. Only Bubba Watson beat him that year but nobody could stop him the following year. Five ahead with nine to play in 2016, he was bang on course for a successful defence only to run foul of the notorious 12th where he put two balls in Rae’s Creek and signed for a quadruple-bogey seven.
Even then, he finished second. A couple of third places since make the Texan, for me, the golfer who understands Augusta best. A much longer, straighter driver than he was in the early days but less reliable with the putter on the four-five-six-footers, he’s my main bet again after an ideal prep with only a W missing on his 2023 record.
Three top-six efforts from his last five strokeplay starts send him to his favourite Major in good heart and I expect him to dethrone Scottie Scheffler who will be extremely hard to shift in his present form, having won at Phoenix and Sawgrass in an awesome run that reads 7-11-1-12-4-1-4. As laid-back as he appears to be, it is unlikely the pressures of defending such an important title will get on top of the world No. 1.
The heart desperately wants McIlroy to realise his dream and join the elite who have won all four Majors but the head says he’s carrying too much baggage in the shape of past disappointments. This will be his 15th Masters, one of which he famously blew while at other times an indifferent first round has left him with too much ground to make up. And remember he hasn’t won a Major since 2014.
His last four Masters Thursdays read 73, 76, 75, 73 and that doesn’t get it done. Last year’s second was numerically the closest he’s got but that flattered him as it was thanks only to a last-round 64 after starting the day in ninth place. Realistically he had no chance of catching Scheffler so it was pretty stress-free.
Couple seven top-tens in his last nine Masters with an admirable 2023 record featuring victory in Dubai and two PGA top-threes, plus new confidence on the greens and an Augusta that favours long, high-ball hitters and it’s easy to make a case for him. But I’m waiting to see how round one goes. Anything 70 or under and you’ve got a bet.
Rahm’s five Masters as a pro (4-9-7-5-27) read well enough but he has never really threatened to win and any of the uncertainty on the greens which has marred a couple of performances this year will be ruthlessly exposed on glassy greens. But you can’t argue that much of the Spaniard’s golf this year (three wins) has been right out of the top drawer.
It will be fascinating to see how big a presence the LIV brigade will have at the business end and what effect they have on the atmosphere. Will it be handbags at dawn or a touch of frost?
Open champion Cameron Smith is the shortest in the betting as he’s entitled to be with Augusta form figures of 2-10-3 the last three years and four top-tens in six visits but he has failed to fire in the three LIV tournaments to date and his general form since winning the weak Australian PGA Championship in November has been underwhelming.
Bigger threats are likely to come from Brooks Koepka who on Sunday became LIV’s first dual winner in Orlando, having opened his account at Jeddah last October, and Patrick Reed.
Koepka gobbled up four Majors in short time before serious knee problems that required surgery stopped him in his tracks and he began to look like yesterday’s man. Now, finally returned to full fitness, he has become a force again and although he’ll have more distinguished pursuers than Peter Uihlein and Sebastian Munoz chasing him at Augusta, the glint is back in his eye.
Runner-up to Tiger in that unforgettable 2019 Masters and seventh the following year, you can forget his missed cuts the past two years as he was playing injured.
The joke going round when LIV signed the much-loathed Reed was that they paid $20m for him and the PGA Tour lobbed in the other $60m just to be rid but I’ve always been a fan of his golf and his couldn’t-give-a-damn attitude. He wasn’t far behind Koepka when third on Sunday and as a former Masters champion is entitled to respect. Top tens in 2020-21 followed that 2018 triumph and around-the-greens wizardry compensates for lack of length.
Dustin Johnson is another past Master who can’t be ruled out but there are so many lining up to relieve Scheffler of his crown. Xander Schauffele is twice a top-three finisher, Sunday’s Texas Open winner Corey Conners is trending the right way (10-8-6 the last three years), Tony Finau has three top-tens from just five attempts, Sam Burns looked awesome when winning the Match Play, big hitter Cameron Young has gone close in two Majors (but missed the cut by a long way on his Augusta debut) and Jason Day is getting back to the sort of dazzling golf that took him to second place on his Masters bow back in 2011.
Finau, top 25 on all seven starts this campaign, will give us a good run as will Justin Rose who had the 2017 Masters his for the taking but gifted it to Sergio Garcia. That was not the only time the tall Englishman has been a Masters factor – he had a big chance in 2007, has twice been runner-up and was seventh only two years ago when short of confidence. He’s a different man now and the way he closed out victory at Pebble Beach was mighty impressive. No surprise that Rosey followed up with a solid sixth at Sawgrass and he looks the pick of the longer prices.
Tiger Woods? We don’t usually leave him till last but he’s the one the “patrons” most want to see. Last year he gallantly made the cut but a brace of limping 78s on the weekend for 47th were as painful to watch as they were to play.
He looked in better physical order on his one start this year at Riviera and again made the weekend on the way to 45th place. I’ll be backing him to make the cut again while not expecting a repeat of that 2019 miracle, his 15th and almost certain final Major triumph. But when you’re talking about a genius, who knows?
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