Best bets
5pts win Jon Rahm @ 13/5
1pt each-way Gary Woodland @ 25/1
1pt each-way Brandon Wu @ 50/1
0.5pt each-way Beau Hossler @ 40/1
Solving a 144-piece puzzle like a PGA tournament is typically fraught with imponderables and there’s as much hope-and-hunch as there is science in finally coming down on the side of the nominated players we entrust with our hard-earned cash.
But, for once, it all seems incredibly straight-forward, “seems” being the operative word. The Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta isn’t one of the new $20m showcase tournaments that demands the presence of the big names so the stars are taking the week off. Apart from world No. 1 Jon Rahm and No. 16 Tony Finau.
Rahm because he’s the defending champion with a sense of duty, a desire to grow the game in Mexico and, as a Spaniard in a boisterous Spanish-speaking community, the chief ticket-seller too. Finau because, as a three-time winner in 2022 yet to rediscover that dynamism in ‘23, this represents an opportunity to get off the mark if Rahm has a blip.
It’s not that Finau has been poor. Far from it. He’s been a model of consistency with two early top-tens and four subsequent top-20s. It’s just that Rahm has been sensational, mastering the explosive temperament which cost him dear in past years to reel off four big wins, highlighted by the Masters of course, and it’s still only April. Do you wonder why Fitzdares make him only 13/5 to chalk up No. 5?
Yet it’s not the worst short-odds bet you’ll ever strike. Consider where Rahm was with his game last year compared with this: he arrived on a 17-tournament losing streak. This year he can’t stop winning. And although this isn’t a huge payday by recent standards, there’s still well over $1m more lead over Scottie Scheffler at the top of the money tree he could help himself to. So no shortage of incentive.
Logically, the best alternative bet is Finau each-way at 7/1 but while it looks a safe investment, it doesn’t excite me as I can’t think of any reason why he should beat Rahm and 7/5 for the place part of the bet is less attractive than the 13/5 for a Rahmbo victory.
Third in the Fitzdares market sits Wyndham Clark, who is zero from 132 but is in the hottest form of all Rahm’s challengers after so nearly breaking his duck when leading for most of the way with partner Beau Hossler in last week’s Zurich Classic.
The deflation of third place after playing such fabulous golf for so long will be tempered in Clark’s case by the realisation that this continues the best stretch of his career as it follows a fifth at Valspar to Taylor Moore and sixth in the Corales to our own Matt Wallace.
With his gorgeous flowing swing, Hossler looked the next big thing when he picked up second places in decent tournaments five years ago but he’s still waiting and there have been many disappointments since. Maybe last week will have given him the confidence to back up his undoubted skill-set. If so, 40/1 is no bad price.
There have been signs of life from 2019 US Open champion Gary Woodland who has been off the radar for several seasons. A top-ten at Riviera and 14th at Augusta hinted that the ability that won him a Major is still there. He could easily make the frame as he is one of the few who has proved four times he knows how to win.
Alex Noren, third-best in the field according to the rankings but 0 from 146 in the States, and the consistent but limited Wallace are Europeans who could run into the places as might Corales runner-up Nicolai Hojgaard, steady Arron Rai and past Open champion Francesco Molinari.
Of the rest, Emiliano Grillo, Ben An and Patrick Rodgers, tenth last year, have the game but not the nerve. Like many in this tepid supporting cast they are not just frightened of Rahm, they are frightened of winning. But one with more ambition is the young Californian Brandon Wu who created a stir in Mexico last year with his last-round 63 that took him within a shot of Rahm at the death and earned him a share of second place.
He was also joint runner-up at Pebble Beach early this year, posted top-20s at Honda and Sawgrass and, although not a huge hitter on a 7456-yard par 71 Greg Norman design that favours bombers, has more potential than most.
If the golf matches the mid-80s weather, we’re in for a hot week and another Rahm masterclass. Who can bail the bookies out?
Best bets
2pts each-way Sergio Garcia @ 28/1
2pts each-way Patrick Reed @ 12/1
1pt each-way Anirban Lahiri @ 25/1
From the size of the crowds for LIV Adelaide last week – even if the 100,000 claimed over the three days at The Grange is a mite fanciful – the breakaway tour’s first Australian adventure has to be rated a big success even if the quartet of home stars failed to give the locals much to shout about.
American Talor Gooch wrecked the tournament as an in-play betting medium by shooting a brace of 62s to set up a whopping ten-shot lead going into the final day and although the lead shrank to two at one point, the result was never really in doubt.
At 31, Gooch is one of the younger members of the generally middle-aged LIV squad and now that he’s cracked it once, he may get a taste for these $4m easy-money paydays, another of which comes up straight away with LIV Singapore, the fifth in the worldwide cycle of 14, teeing off on the Serapong course at Sentosa on Friday.
He’s a 16/1 shot behind reigning Open champion Cameron Smith who heads the field of 48 at 10/1 after his best performance of a so-far underwhelming 2023, a share of third place on home ground on Sunday.
He and the Americans Gooch, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson are much feared, particularly Reed who continued his impressive run of near-misses at the weekend. With a third and fourth on his latest LIV outings sandwiching a superb fourth at the Masters, it has to be his turn soon.
Also knocking on the door for a LIV breakthrough is Anirban Lahiri who followed up second place in an Asian Tour event in Vietnam with another runners-up spot in Oz. It could be a hat-trick of seconds for the classy Indian who stands 34 under par for those last seven rounds.
But is this finally the week for the European rebels, pitiful for the most part ever since they were lured away by the Saudi mega-bucks, to show they can actually still play the game?
True, Henrik Stenson won on debut last summer but that seems to have been a one-off and latest signing Thomas Pieters has yet to punch his weight. It is embarrassing to see great players like Graeme McDowell quoted at 250/1 and Lee Westwood at 125/1. but they have done little more than making up the numbers.
Westwood turned 50 this week but Phil Mickelson, two years his senior, proved age is just a number when joint runner-up at the Masters.
I haven’t given up yet on Sergio Garcia and as he is a course winner at Sentosa – by five in the 2018 Singapore Open – this is the obvious time to put him up in a week when there could easily be a Spanish double, Jon Rahm having an outstanding chance of a Mexico Open encore.
But at ten times Rahm’s odds, Sergio may hold more appeal, particularly for punters who like to bet each-way. A respectable 11th in Adelaide, sixth before that in Tucson and fifth when moonlighting to Oman on the Asian Tour, he is tasked with raising the flagging European profile by pulling off what would only be their second LIV victory in 12 attempts.
Whatever he does this week, Garcia must be licking his lips at the prospect of LIV’s June visit to his beloved Valderrama, a course where he’s a three-time winner.
Also a winner at Sentosa is Ian Poulter. He won the 2009 Singapore Open but has been dismissed as a 100/1 no-hoper, probably with good reason. He, birthday boy Westwood and G-Mac, who was fifth to Poulter on this scenically spectacular 7401-yard par 71 back in the day, need to get their acts together – none of the them finished in the top 25 in Adelaide – before their Saudi paymasters lose patience.
Best bets
1pt each-way Grant Forrest @ 33/1
1pt each-way Callum Hill @ 33/1
1pt each-way Robert MacIntyre @ 18/1
1pt each-way Yannik Paul @ 20/1
It’s a shame none of the exciting Korean talent on the PGA Tour – Sungjae Im, Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim are all out of the top drawer – could be tempted over for the DP World Tour’s inaugural Korea Championship at Incheon this week as writing about the usual suspects week after week gets a little repetitive.
The tour’s debut in The Land of the Rising Sun brought out a welcome number of new faces from the Japan Tour to spice up last week’s action but this first Korean visit for a decade sadly lacks a similar injection of star names from the home country.
Nor has Lucas Herbert, a somewhat lucky 22/1 winner in Japan for Fittdares Times followers thanks to a friendly bounce out of the woods in the playoff, stayed on to sample the delights of the handsome Jack Nicklaus Golf Club, where one of the more competitive Presidents Cups resulted in a 14.5 to 13.5 victory for the USA over the Internationals in 2015.
It’s a typical Nicklaus course, generous off the tee, demanding with its approaches to far-from-straightforward greens, long at 7470 yards but offering plenty of birdie chances to golfers who put their drives in the right positions.
Big hitters have an advantage but not unfairly so and with only Korean Tour events having been played there in the past, there’s little to help the punter in his winner-finding quest apart from the knowledge that the weather is set fair.
Ryder Cup hopefuls head Fitzdares’ list at 16/1 with Rasmus Hojgaard and Jordan Smith at that price and Bob MacIntyre and Adrian Meronk, last seen missing the cut on his masters debut, a couple of points longer. Not one of them has won this year and Hojgaard has been barely seen because of injury.
The young Dane’s 16th last week in the ISPS Handa confirmed his well-being but, based on the most recent available form, I’m looking for the Scots to have a big say in the outcome in what is the final tournament before the tour returns to its European roots next week for the Italian Open.
But which one? BobbyMac was a fast-finishing sixth on Sunday but that was only good enough to make him third-best Scot as Callum Hill was third and Grant Forrest fourth.
Also in the mix were the ever-consistent Smith and Yannik Paul, who shared sixth spot with MacIntyre.
That was Hill’s best showing since he came back from almost a year of illness hell. A seemingly innocuous insect bite wrecked his immune system and he was diagnosed with nerve hypersensitivity. Golf was put on the back-burner as the 2021 Cazoo Classic winner fought his way back to full fitness but he’s back playing playing a full schedule.
He showed with 13th place in Dubai at the start of the year that everything’s shipshape and Japan was further proof that quality striker will be a force at this level.
At 33/1 he’s a sporting each-way choice while at the same odds the booming power of the long-hitting Forrest appeal at this venue. Since teaming up with caddie Davy Kenny, Forrest has acquired a new consistency as a run of 4-11-13-6 from his four latest starts testify. A second tour success cannot be far away for the 29-year-old who won the Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews in 2021.
MacIntyre will want to save his best for the defence of his Italian Open title but equally hopes to build on his sixth in Japan, so he could complete a Scottish 1-2-3.
Jorge Campillo and Antoine Rozner, both winners in the recent past, are seen as dangers along with Paul, the fast-improving German, and classy Hojgaard.
Paul in particular is throwing his hat into the Ryder Cup ring by shooting 44 under in finishing sixth, second and second in Japan, India and Thailand. He was a first-time winner in Majorca which seems to have set him off and he’s quickly building up an impressively cosmopolitan CV. All countries seem to come alike to Yannik, so no reason for his birdie spree to end.
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