Best bets
2.5pts each-way Adam Scott @ 33/1
1.5pts each-way Justin Thomas @ 16/1
1pt each-way Viktor Hovland @ 12/1
1pt each-way Sam Burns @ 22/1
1pt each-way Ludvig Aberg @ 18/1
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Whenever the Tiger Woods circus comes to town, as it does this week just a drive and five-iron away from Sunset Boulevard at plush Riviera Country Club, where the stars of Hollywood come out to play, the actual golf inevitably plays second fiddle to one of sport’s all-time legends.
Not only is Tiger one of the elite 72 competing for $20m in the third of eight special Signature events, the Genesis Invitational, he is also the tournament host on the famed 7261-yard par 71 where, against the odds, he made the cut last year in finishing T45 while still clearly in pain. He was walking much better when we last saw him, in the Hero World Challenge before Christmas, and although he finished 18th of 20, expect him to make the weekend at Riviera – there’s a cut even though it’s a smaller-than-usual field.
It’s a course he has never conquered, his second to Ernie Els in 1999 the closest he’s come in 11 attempts as a pro. It probably won’t happen now but with a genius you just never know …
Tiger’s problems have mainly come on Riviera’s small, slopy greens rather than off the tee. The course has always favoured faders of the ball which is his shot. But his flat-stick stats vary from average to horrendous. One year he wielded the putter 114 times which, in effect, means he gifted his rivals a six-shot start or more.
Woods will take great encouragement from the extraordinary effort of Charley Hoffman, at 47 only 12 months younger than the great 15-time Major champion. He got within one putt of winning the Phoenix Open and adding another 300/1 upset to the weekly woes piling up on punters since the turn of the year.
Hoffman, a four-time winner a long time ago but without even a top-ten for 20 months and regarded as well past his sell-by, broke the heart of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler who suddenly missed three short putts – but it didn’t stop putting wizard Nick Taylor and the two longshots provided a finish that will long be remembered.
The dogged Canadian birdied five of the last six, including the two-hole playoff, to spring a three-figure shock of his own but a lesser one as he had finished runner-up to Scheffler last year and gone on to pip our own Tommy Fleetwood in a Canadian Open playoff in the summer.
‘It probably won’t happen now but with a genius you just never know…’
Hoffman’s consolation was a place in the Riviera line-up, the final spot in which went to Justin Thomas who, after a dismal 2023 had failed to qualify but gets in because Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, one of those any-price-you-like winners who had been giving punters so much grief, surprisingly said “No thank you” to the chance of a $3.6m payday.
Last-man-in Thomas, 12th at Phoenix followed even better efforts at AmEx (3rd) and Pebble Beach (6th) and is perfectly capable of making the most of this gifted opportunity. Could the last be first? Most definitely. JT was Riviera runner-up in 2019 and sixth two years ago.
Yet this is the best field of the year. Everybody who matters is there bar, of course, Rahm himself and the other LIV giants, not least the great Dustin Johnson who came back with a vengeance to land the breakaway tour’s second 54-holer of the year in Las Vegas, much helped, as Joaquin Niemann was the previous week, by star attraction Rahm bogeying the final two holes.
Heading the Genesis market inevitably are Scheffler, 12th and seventh the last two years, and Rory McIlroy, T4 in 2019, T5 in 2020 and T10 in 2022, but at single-figure odds I am in no rush to back either. They have never put their stamp on this tournament and the greens will be a serious test for both, particularly Scheffler.
My main bet to beat them is Aussie long-server Adam Scott, an each-way snip at a working man’s price on course and current form. “I love the place,” he once declared. “It’s my favourite stop on the tour.” No wonder – he’s a two-time champion there, first in 2005 when the rain-soaked tournament had to be cut to 36 holes, then in 2020 in a high-scoring renewal in windy conditions when he was the only player in a decent field to finish double figures under par.
And just look at the way he’s golfing his ball right now! Since November, the 2013 Masters hero has rarely had a poor week … fifth in Bermuda, fourth and sixth in the Australian PGA and Open, seventh in Dubai, 20th and eighth at Pebble Beach and Phoenix, two perfect US warm-ups for the week he’s been building up to since Christmas.
Only slow starts (72s) have stopped him being a serious challenger these past two weeks and his putting, for so long his Achilles heel, has been awesome, particularly from long range. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s not bang there on Sunday afternoon.
FedEx Cup-winner Viktor Hovland, fifth in 2021 and T4 with Scott the following year, is a future world No. 1 and will be hard to beat as will Max Homa, champion three years ago after a playoff with Tony Finau and runner-up to Rahm last year. Always to be feared in his home state, yet Homa’s 2024 form has been a bit undercooked, no top tens in four starts and a missed cut at Scottsdale – not what you want to see if you’re punting him.
Jordan Spieth on the other hand is in bright form, has been all year, but there’s nothing special about his Riviera CV. So although I’m not a great fan of Sam Burns, he gets a place in the staking plan as we know his current form is rock-solid. Third at Riviera just a shot out of the playoff in 2021, Burns has opened the year with some eyecatching efforts, the latest last week when just coming up short in Phoenix. That share of third spot with Scheffler had been on the cards after top-tens in the two pro-ams at La Quinta and Pebble so play it again, Sam, only better.
Finau, twice a Riviera runner-up, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa all have a shout as does first-timer Ludvig Aberg, just a shot behind Wyndham Clark when Pebble Beach had to be abandoned early and fancied to be a Major winner sooner rather than later. He seems to have all the tools for Riviera, a classic club which has not only hosted what used to be called the Los Angeles Open for six decades but also a US Open and two PGA Championships.
We’re set for a cool, cloudy few days with the rain likely to hold off until Monday when, with luck, we’ll be celebrating, Hollywood style, an Aussie victory.
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