Best bets
5pts win Scottie Scheffler @ 4/1
2.5pts each-way Rory McIlroy @ 13/2
1pt each-way Byeong Hun An @ 50/1
1pt each-way Brooks Koepka @ 14/1
0.5pt each-way Joaquin Niemann @ 28/1
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If ever a golfer laid his cards on the table and said, ‘Right, let’s see what you’ve got,’ it was Rory McIlroy after some of the most thrilling golf of his career, demolishing Xander Schauffele, winning for the fourth time at his beloved Quail Hollow, and throwing down the gauntlet to the world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, on the eve of the second Major of the year, the USPGA Championship.
What a showdown it’s going to be at Valhalla in Muhammad Ali country at Louisville, Kentucky, this week. Never mind Fury v Usyk in Riyadh on Saturday; this is Scheffler v McIlroy for the heavyweight championship of golf. And Rory has taken the first round already: he’s a course winner.
Hard to credit, but the 2014 PGA at Valhalla was the last Major he won — the third leg of a magical 21-day spell when he became, at 25, a young folk hero after capturing the Open Championship at Hoylake and his first World Golf Championship, the Bridgestone at Firestone, in a mind-blowing surge that had the great Jack Nicklaus, a man not given to rash predictions, declaring: “Rory is an unbelievable talent with the opportunity to win 15 or 20 Majors or whatever he wants to do.”
Yet ten years on, the Northern Irishman from Holywood still has only four Majors. How could Nicklaus, and everyone else, have got it so wrong? Yet he’s still a magnificent golfer who has done many great things, on and off the course, a man who cares deeply for the game, and oh how we would love it if he could end that ten-year drought this weekend.
The heart says he will, the head says that Scheffler, with an astonishing four victories in his last five starts including the Masters and the Players Championship — and only a whisker away from winning all five — will wear him down with his incredible consistency and unflappable temperament. He’s the hottest golfer on the planet since Tiger Woods was in his pomp two decades ago. Scheffler and Schauffele may have similar names, but they are very different beasts — one knows how to win, the other has a flaw, a mental block, that doesn’t surface until Sundays.
It has affected McIlroy on the big occasion too, and the longer he goes without that fifth Major, the bigger the barrier becomes. So whereas the 7/1 about him winning the Wells Fargo was a very fair price without Scheffler to beat on an occasion when all the stars were aligning — which is why a six-point investment was recommended — similar odds with not only Scheffler but Jon Rahm, defending champion Brooks Koepka (who has won more Majors than McIlroy), and the rest of the LIV hierarchy to beat AND the ten-year Majors chip on his shoulder must have less appeal on the score of value.
Yet just as partnering his pal Shane Lowry to victory in New Orleans, a team tournament he’d never have entered but for a handshake made at a boozy Ryder Cup celebration, inspired the Quail Hollow supershow that tore the heart out of Schauffele (and even Scheffler would have struggled to resist), so might the “Rory, Rory, Rory!” roars from Charlotte carry him forward to Louisville ready to “float like a butterfly, sting like a bee”. How galling it must have been for Schauffele to hear so many more Americans shouting for a Northern Irishman than for one of their own.
Pro punters might jib at backing both the front two in the market, particularly at 4/1 and 13/2, but when they stand out so far from the crowd, there is surely a case for making an exception although you have to run the risk of looking ridiculous when some no-name like Shaun Micheel, the 2003 champion who never won another tournament, has a career week with everything clicking and every putt dropping.
And in a trying year when more 300/1 shots have won than favourites, Rory owes the faithful as it’s 35 Majors since he last hit the bull’s-eye and he’s been a single-figure poke for most. Don’t go expecting a fiendishly difficult golf course which sorts the men out from the boys even if it did when Rory won there.
Sadly for punters we have no Valhalla form since although, pre-Rory, the hammering Nick Faldo’s Europe took there in the 2008 Ryder Cup is still a dirty memory. Ten years ago when the 7609-yard par 71 Nicklaus layout of today measured 151 yards less, McIlroy shot 66-67-67-68 for a 16-under 268 in a damp, weather-delayed championship in which 58 players finished under par.
The extra yardage is nothing as players hit it even further these days but the 2021 agronomy switch from bentgrass to zoysia fairways could be relevant because zoysia is firmer and faster, the ball rolls further and accuracy off the tee becomes more important.
New dad Scheffler — first child Bennett arrived last Wednesday we are told — is so solid in every department tee to green he ticks all the boxes and there’s no sense of a rushed preparation. More likely he’ll be inspired to even greater heights — a frightening thought.
As this is the Major run by the club arm of the game, uniquely with the 20 top shop professionals joining the party, the PGA of America will not want their own to be embarrassed so don’t look for too hairy an examination, just some very long par fours and one eye-popping par three that measures 255 yards. Birdies are there to be had and rain-softened fairways will help keep the ball in play.
It was a similar scenario in 2014 even though the championship was played at a different time of year, in August, when Jim Furyk, one of the shortest drivers in the field, was able to contend. Bottom line: everyone will have a chance but power will count.
So who do we fancy outside the Big Two? Hard man Koepka specializes in Majors, loves this one as a triple PGA champion, and was a winner last time out at LIV Singapore. He rates a bigger threat than LIV’s priciest signing Rahm who is 0 from 7 since he started batting for the Saudis, 0 from 8 if you include a miserable T45 in defence of his Masters title.
More LIV stars have been included than at Augusta making this the best field of the year and it’s good to see their 2023 Player of the Year Talor Gooch get a spot. Louis Oosthuizen was apparently invited but declined. Joaquin Niemann, twice a winner on the LIV circuit (shot a 59 at Mayakoba), Australian Open champion, long and consistent too, shouldn’t be far away and Bryson DeChambeau could do anything, particularly with so many big PGA Tour names not really firing.
Patrick Cantlay likes Nicklaus courses and Bentgrass greens but question marks hang over Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Louisville native Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, Will Zalatoris (27 shots behind McIlroy on Sunday after poor weeks in Houston and New Orleans – is he okay?) and Collin Morikawa.
And one who has been playing beautiful golf, Schauffele, with two runner-up spots among eight top-tens from 12 starts, will surely not be able to erase the scars from Sunday’s humiliating capitulation. Enjoying his best year since gatecrashing the scene to run away with the European PGA at Wentworth nine years ago, Byeong Hun (Ben) An is trending brilliantly, fourth at the Byron Nelson and one place better at Quail Hollow.
He is far too talented a player, particularly now his putting has so markedly improved, to be winless on the PGA circuit after 193 attempts. He is just the sort of Rich Beem, YE Yang, Jason Dufner type who emerges from almost nowhere to surprise in this most minor of the Majors. Jason Day is also short-listed for place money as a past winner whose current form is encouraging.
Fourth at Quail Hollow was too error-prone for the Aussie to challenge seriously but that’s five top-tens this year for the 2015 champion. He is not quite the force he was a decade ago and will need to be as there’s no hiding place when Scheffler’s on the case.
Possibilities too about classy Max Homa, eighth at Quail Hollow after third at the Masters and such a force last year, and Brits Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood. All three are hungry for a first Major, long overdue in Fleetwood’s case. He turned in another decent effort last week but has a touch of what affects Schauffele when it comes to finishing the job off. Health warnings about first-timer Ludvig Aberg who was a late WD last week with a knee problem and Hideki Matsuyama whose back is an almost constant worry. He too pulled out at Wells Fargo but how much of that was precautionary we are left to guess.
This one is going to be a bit special. A pain-free Tiger making the cut would help make it so. It will need to be special to surpass last week’s riveting duel between McIlroy and Schauffele. How much more riveting will McIlroy and Scheffler be … or will it end in an early knockout? Bring it on and let’s find out!
Best bets
3pts Koepka to beat Schauffele 72 holes @ 6/5
2pts Young to beat Hovland 72 holes @ Evens
1pt each-way Taylor Pendrith Top Debutant @ 18/1
2pts Byeong Hun An Top Asian @ 4/1
1pt Will Zalatoris to miss the cut @ 8/5
1pt Padraig Harrington Top Senior @ 9/5
1pt Jason Day Top Australian @ 13/5
Finding value among the myriad of PGA Championship specials offered by Fitzdares can be daunting, but there’s plenty of each-way appeal in the 18/1 odds for Canadian bomber Taylor Pendrith in the Top Debutant market now that he’s finally gotten off the mark. His breakthrough, particularly in a competitive field at the Byron Nelson in San Antonio, has shed much of the self-doubt that plagued the 32-year-old in his initial years on the main tour, especially concerning his putting.
The newfound confidence on the greens was further validated with a top-ten finish at Quail Hollow, albeit a considerable distance behind Rory McIlroy. Two 11th-place finishes at Corales and in New Orleans, where he partnered fellow Canadian Corey Conners, preceded Pendrith’s success at the Nelson, forming a solid foundation of recent form. As one of the longest drivers on tour, his power will certainly be an asset on a wet course playing at its full length.
Ryder Cup Swede Ludvig Åberg, who made a sensational runner-up debut at the Masters last month, withdrew from the Wells Fargo last week due to a sore knee, though he insists it was precautionary. Despite this, his preparation remains interrupted, potentially impacting his sharpness. If he’s at full strength, Åberg is undoubtedly a strong contender, but Pendrith seems determined to give him a run for his money.
Another player showing marked improvement in putting is Byeong Hun An, better known as Ben, who is in excellent form and ready to challenge favorite Hideki Matsuyama for Top Asian honours at 4/1 odds. Matsuyama withdrew from Wells Fargo with a back injury just minutes before his tee-time last week. Even if fully fit, he would face a tough challenge against An, whose game is currently in better shape.
Among the 72-hole match bets, defending champion Brooks Koepka stands out at 6/5 against Xander Schauffele, who will need to display mental toughness to rebound from Sunday’s collapse and tentative putting. Koepka, with three PGA wins and a recent victory at LIV, holds a strong advantage over Schauffele, who hasn’t won a Major in two years and may not be in the best mindset.
I also fancy betting against two out-of-form players, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris. Hovland, despite being hailed as a potential No.1, has struggled this year, making him an easy target for even-money Cameron Young in their match bet. Zalatoris, who struggled at Quail Hollow and in recent tournaments, faces an uphill battle and is priced at 8/5 to miss the cut.
Additionally, I’ll be placing a wager on Padraig Harrington at 9/5 to outperform Phil Mickelson in the Top Senior category, as both past PGA champions exhibit a strong work ethic and determination to excel even in their fifties. Similarly, I expect Jason Day, the 2015 champion, to emerge as the Top Australian after his impressive fourth-place finish against McIlroy. In a field with no recent course guidance, current form becomes even more crucial.
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