Best bets
1.5pts each-way Billy Horschel @ 28/1
1.5pts each-way Adam Scott @ 18/1
1pt each-way Eddie Pepperell @ 66/1
0.5pt each-way Aaron Rai @ 25/1
0.5pt each-way Min Woo Lee @ 18/1
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The USA retreated to 5/6, their biggest price since they obliterated Europe 19-9 in the last Ryder Cup, after Luke Donald unveiled his “secret weapon”, the newly crowned European Masters champion Ludvig Aberg, as his final wild card for the big showdown in Rome at the end of the month.
The emergence of the 23-year-old Swede, rated best amateur in the world only a few months back, as a potential world-beater after only 75 days as a professional, has given underdogs Europe heart that they might turn around that overwhelming defeat at Whistling Straits two years ago.
Nobody had ever played in the Ryder Cup before competing in a Major until Aberg came along and overhauled longtime leader Matt Fitzpatrick with a four-birdie swoop, just what captain Donald hoped he would do when he invited the US-based Aberg to play in these last two counting tournaments, in Prague and Crans-sur-Sierre.
And when the new kid on the block responded with a T4 at the Czech Masters and a spectacular victory in the Swiss Alps, the already-impressed Donald had the final piece of the jigsaw.
Already on the stats as the No. 1 driver in the world, ahead of even Rory McIlroy, and an ice-cool temperament to go with the hot shot-making, Aberg doesn’t seem to feel the pressure and that is what Europe will need in the white-hot cauldron of the Marco Simone golf course on September 29-October 1.
With a comparable college golfing CV to Jon Rahm and the new FedEx Cup champion Viktor Hovland, Aberg arrived with plenty of hype but he has emphatically lived up to it and Donald sees him as a “generational” golfer, one of who will become the leader of the pack and a Ryder Cup player many, many times over.
He is not even the youngest golfer in the team. Donald surprised many by selecting 22-year-old Nicolai Hojgaard ahead of Adrian Meronk, a winner on the Ryder Cup course, but the Danish twin’s superiority the last two weeks (third in the Czech Republic and T5 in Switzerland), the latter on a quirky little course not suited to his big power game, earned him the call along with fellow Ryder rookies Aberg and Sepp Straka.
While concerned about Hojgaard’s short puttting – he misses too many as does another wild card Shane Lowry – his exceptional length off the tee produces eagles galore and makes him a potential dream fourball partner.
Donald has done the best with what is available, giving a pick to the oldest man on either side, 43-year-old Justin Rose, and finding a spot for Open runner-up Straka, but before rushing off to back this new-look Europe – Fitzdares have brought the home side in to 13/10 – a look at the combined world rankings provides a reality check.
The Americans, with their greater depth, are more than 200 points ahead, 156 to 360. Their lowest-ranked player is Rickie Fowler as world No. 26 whereas Europe have five between 34 and 90. Sunnier side up, Europe boasts three of the top four in McIlroy, Rahm and Hovland. Besides, the Ryder Cup is 18-hole matchplay, the rankings are based on 72-hole strokeplay, a totally different animal.
Three Ryder Cup members, McIlroy, Shane Lowry and Tyrrell Hatton, head the betting for this week’s Irish Open at the K Club in Co.Kildare where Europe memorably won the 2006 Ryder Cup by nine and McIlroy memorably won the 2016 Irish Open, snatching the prize away from the faltering Russell Knox with a birdie on 16 and tap-in eagle at 18.
With the PGA Tour not resuming until after the Ryder Cup, there are a number of golfers who normally play in the States taking part, among them Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Aaron Rai, Thomas Detry and Tom Hoge and it will come as a surprise if the winner does not come from that group.
McIlroy is the obvious favourite but had a minor lower-back injury when fourth at the Tour Championship, yet another high finish to add to his collection. The back improved as the week wore on but with the Ryder Cup so close, he may be swinging a little more gingerly than usual this week. He may still win by a street but the 7/2 odds don’t seem to have built that scare into the price.
Lowry won this title at a different course as a 300/1 amateur back in the day but was only 23rd behind Rory when the Irish Open came to the K Club seven years ago. He is more likely to be a factor next week at Wentworth, a course where he has a tip-top record, not least last year when he edged out Rory and Rahm in an all-star finish.
Hatton, sixth to Rory at the K Club seven years ago, deserves a win but that doesn’t mean he’s going to get one and there’s little juice in a 10/1 quote for a guy who wins so rarely. It’s getting on for three years since he last did so.
Better value is the 28/1 about popular American raider Horschel who will be in high spirits as his beloved West Ham have started the season so well.
Winner of the prestigious BMW PGA at Wentworth on a previous visit, Horschel has a game that clearly travels well. The Floridian has just emerged from the worst slump of his career but with his silky game back on track after fourth place at the Wyndham and an encouraging 13th at the 3M, he’s my main bet to follow up last week’s 16/1 winner.
The 2014 FedEx Cup winner will feel at home on the well-bunkered Arnold Palmer-design parkland course, a 7350-yard par 72 test by the River Liffey that gives everyone, long, medium or short, a chance to be competitive.
In 2016 McIlroy was the only player to finish double digits under par so the K Club (short for Kildare Country Club) is a serious examination. It will host the Irish Open again in 2025 and 2027.
Waving the flag for the over-40s, Aussie evergreen Scott has given himself a late-career boost courtesy of notable improvement on the greens and this classy performer, a world No. 1 in his prime, looks sure to take a hand as should his exciting young compatriot Min Woo Lee, fifth at the US Open and sixth at the Players Championship. The best is still to come with him.
Also worth an interest is England’s Eddie Pepperell whose eighth at Crans on Sunday mirrored his finishing position at the K Club in 2016. That solid European Masters effort followed a World Invitational third in Northern Ireland and, judging from past results, the autumn is his time of year.
Fairways-and-greens machine Alex Bjork’s second to Aberg at the week was the best of a fistful of top tens this campaign. He finds winning difficult but is a good one for a Top 10 punt as is Aaron Rai, an Englishman who makes a good living in the States without pulling up any trees. A third in the Canadian Open and plenty of other eyecatching efforts mark Rai down as each-way material at 25/1.
Others I considered were Joost Luiten, Antoine Rozner and local hero Padraig Harrington, still playing great golf at 52, only seven behind winner Aberg on Sunday and likely to be inspired by huge home support.
The weather forecast for Straffan is mixed, hot but showery on Thursday, fine on Friday and Saturday but thundery with possible disruptions on Sunday.
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