Best bets
5pts win Jon Rahm @ 11/4
1pts each-way David Puig @ 20/1
1pts each-way Thorbjorn Olesen @ 18/1
1pt each-way Yannik Paul @ 28/1
0.5pt each-way Jeff Winther @ 66/1
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The presence of LIV superstar Jon Rahm adds gloss to an otherwise humdrum field for the Andalusia Masters at gorgeous Royal Sotogrande but do you want to lump on after he let backers down on his last Spanish mission three weeks ago?
That’s the question facing punters as last year’s US Masters champion arrives at this upmarket Andalusian venue as an inevitably short-priced favourite.
To be fair, he did everything but win last month, losing out in a playoff to fellow Spaniard and massive underdog Angel Hidalgo. And in the bizarre circumstances – a new baby, an illness that forced him out of the LIV Team event, a delayed arrival in Madrid missing the pro-am – the bounding Basque was understandably proud of his performance and his commitment to Spanish golf.
This third European assignment in four weeks looks a lot less fraught although he won’t know Sotogrande as well as Madrid’s Club de Campo where he won two Spanish Opens.
‘The main danger may still come from a LIV player…’
In between Spanish gigs, a T7 at the Dunhill Links kept Rahm’s eye in but six-hour pro-am rounds in chilly October are not really his thing and I’m taking him to wipe the floor with his rivals on home ground. There’s no Tyrrell Hatton to beat this week yet the main danger may still come from a LIV player, the young Catalan David Puig, who hits the ball a country mile despite his slim frame.
Only 22, Puig looks one of LIV’s cleverest signings as he played with them first as a five-star amateur. Although still without a victory on that breakaway circuit, he did win an Asian Tour event in Singapore last year, leading from wire to wire, and he’s put up two smashing efforts on the DP World Tour – T3 at the Spanish Open and T4 in the Dunhill Pro-Am – while seeming to struggle at the business end, first at the Olympics, then in Madrid.
Congrats to all who backed 125/1 French Open winner Dan Bradbury at the weekend – the Wakefield 25-year-old’s switch from orthodox putter to long-handle paying off in spades. He was hard to find as his best previous 2024 finish had been tenth. The jovial Yorkshireman is 55/1 with Fitzdares to go back to back. It’s not impossible – he was T13 at Sotogrande last year, the first time since the famed Robert Trent Jones layout (7101 yards, par 72), the American’s first venture in Europe in 1964, had hosted a major pro tournament since 1966.
When Valderrama, just down the road, came along in 1974, that fabulous course sold itself so well it became a Ryder Cup venue in 1997 and had hosted eight Andalusia Masters until LIV signed up the course for its 2023 schedule. The DP World Tour ditched it and turned to Royal Sotogrande, as it is has been known since being granted the king’s patronage.
Adrian Meronk, now with LIV but not defending, was the first winner there last year, his 16-under score getting him home by one from Matti Schmid. It is 50 years since I played it. The nightmare speed of the greens when even three-putting was a result and a relief will stay in my memory forever. It’s not a long course but a cunning one.
Thorbjorn Olesen, joint runner-up to Bradbury in Paris and T9 at Sotogrande last year, looks third best.
Fellow Dane Jeff Winther, T6 last year, has course and current form too as he shared second spot with Olesen and Yannik Paul on Sunday.
While Paul, Victor Perez, T9 last year, Rasmus Hojgaard and Matt Wallace are more obvious choices to make life tough for Rahm, at 66/1 Winther is a more exciting proposition. But I’m also putting up Paul after Sunday’s near miss. With top-20s at Wentworth and St Andrews and a top-25 in Madrid, this is looking the German’s best spell of the year.
Best bets
2pts each-way Adam Hadwin @ 33/1
1.5pts each-way Tom Kim @ 12/1
1pt each-way Matt McCarty @ 33/1
1pt each-way Davis Thompson @ 25/1
1pt each-way Stephan Jaeger @ 25/1
0.5pt each-way Daniel Berger @ 66/1
We’re in Sin City this week for the Shriners, the tournament best known for being the first of Tiger Woods’s 82 PGA Tour victories in 1996 when it was known as the Las Vegas Invitational and played over five rounds. Will he ever get No. 83 to take the record on his own?
Tiger was a mere stripling of 20 – and so was that breath of fresh air, Tom Kim, when he rocked up at TPC Summerlin in October 2022 and blew everybody away with a record-equalling 24-under-par score. Then in October 2023 the chirpy, chattering Korean, a great crowd favourite, did it again, again finishing 62-66 on the weekend, this time for 20 under, just enough to see off Canada’s Adam Hadwin.
‘Results suggest otherwise, 2024 his first year on tour without a W … so far.’
Forty-four under par for 144 holes – how can you bet against a Kim hat-trick on the course he clearly adores? He’s not long but neither is Summerlin and it’s at altitude too which realistically brings it down to under 7000 yards, a paradise for dead-eye putters and straight drivers. Shoot at least 20 under or you won’t be in the conversation.
But is Kim as good with the flat stick as he was during that meteoric rise to success? Results suggest otherwise, 2024 his first year on tour without a W … so far. True, there have been magical moments, notably going head to head with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler all final day at the Travelers, only to miss a shortish birdie putt at the first sudden-death hole and bow out. There were good showings at the Olympics and Presidents Cup too but on balance he would probably have to be disappointed with his achievements.
You can’t leave him out though and he’s at an each-way price but don’t be surprised if Hadwin takes his revenge. Taking only 33/1 about a man who has lost 268 out of 269 starts (and that one win coming seven long years ago) is usually a recipe for disaster but this is not a strong field and, boy, does the man from Moose Jaw putt these greens well!
Hadwin has averaged 17 under for his last six visits with -20 his best. He will have to do at least as well as that to contend but, narked by being omitted from the Presidents Cup while three countrymen made the squad, the motivation to step up to the plate is there.
Winning one out of two is a far more compelling stat and that’s what Matt McCarty has done. He captured the Black Desert Championship on Sunday on only his second main-tour start after gaining battleground promotion for his trio of Korn Ferry Tour victories in July and August.
No wonder he looked at home in the Utah desert as he hails from Scottsdale, Arizona. It’s desert golf again this week and here is a young man with no fear, no baggage, no memories of missed putts at the wrong time pulling him back. This lefty may not be a world-beater but we do know he won’t be frightened when he next gets into contention, and you can’t say that about many, especially those needing a big finish to save their 2025 playing privileges.
Both Woods and Kim won this on first acquaintance so the course takes little knowing and McCarty should not be unduly inconvenienced by lack of Summerlin savvy.
Davis Thompson and Stephan Jaeger rate big dangers.
Thompson won the John Deere, was second in Detroit, top-tenned at the US Open and has made his last nine cuts. Jaeger beat the great Scheffler to end the world No. 1’s winning run at six in Houston and got closest to McCarty in Utah.
Both should be in the mix along with recent winners Kevin Yu and Patton Kizzire. Ace putters Brendon Todd and JT Poston also come into the conversation, while comeback men Rickie Fowler and Daniel Berger showed enough last week not to be discounted. High early-week temperatures will drop and it will be quite cool by Vegas standards for the weekend.
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