Can’t start a fire without a spark

There are certain truisms about international championships that are worth remembering at the end of this very fraught group stage for Gareth Southgate’s team. “You can’t win the Euros in the first three games; you can just lose them.”

If you think that’s disproportionately optimistic given what England have put their fans through thus far in Germany, then I would point you to the events of November 22 2022 in Qatar. That day, Saudi Arabia pulled off one of the greatest shocks in the finals of the World Cup when they beat Argentina 2-1.

Pictures of a disconsolate Leo Messi bounced around the globe as the chances of his capping his sensational career with a World Cup win receded dramatically. In fact I remember vividly presenting ITV’s coverage of Argentina’s next group match, against Mexico, and opening with the words that if Argentina lost today then “arguably the greatest player the world has ever seen will never win the World Cup.”

My point is the winners rarely travel in a linear straight line through a four week tournament. There’s often a road hump to negotiate, whether that be in the shape of form, system, injury or suspension. Negotiating a smooth transit through a championship is as unlikely as a trouble free journey on German trains. (Avanti, South West Trains, Great Western Railways – you have a Teutonic cousin with whom you share so much.)

In 2010, on a freezing cold day in Johannesburg, I wrapped up warm in a square to watch Spain lose their opener a 1-0 defeat to Switzerland on a giant screen. A month later, Spain were celebrating their first ever World Cup triumph.

A cursory look at England’s World Cup adventures under the late Sir Bobby Robson also bears this out. In 1986, injury to Bryan Robson and a suspension for Ray Wilkins meant the midfield had to be rejigged ahead of the final group game against Poland. Robson balanced off midfield with the introduction of Peter Reid, Peter Beardsley replaced Mark Hateley as Gary Lineker’s partner and England – and Lineker’s career – had lift off.

Fast forward four years to Italia 90, and after a drab 1-1 draw with the Republic of Ireland, England switched to three at the back after a frank discussion between the squad and the manager, and England were ultimately a post away from reaching the World Cup final. Gareth Southgate himself switched formations at the last Euros, between four and three at the back when the occasion demanded.

You get the drift. England haven’t yet been sucked into the vortex of doom but they’re in serious danger of being so. What needs to happen now is a mind shift as much as anything else.

The England players need to take a leaf out of their predecessors book in Italy 34 years ago and talk honestly to the manager, tell him they’re not enjoying the way they’re playing, they’re not getting the best out of the huge offensive options they have and they have to free up their minds in the knock out stages.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a deeper seam of attacking England players at a tournament than this one and that’s with several more, Grealish, Sancho and Rashford, left at home. How can the sum be so much less than the individual parts?

Gareth Southgate will leave his post either after this Euros or the next World Cup, so now is the time to be brave, to embolden his players, to let the big dogs off the porch. He’s a centre-half so his subconscious, his instinct, is always going to be a defensive one but at the moment he’s over promising and under delivering.

Of course that can only happen with a properly balanced midfield and Kobbie Mainoo showed he needs to be alongside Declan Rice but the England players need to be active participants in this mental change, not bystanders just waiting for the coach’s instructions.

I would also find a place for Cole Palmer, without doubt. He has the confidence, the insouciance, the “who are we playing? I’ll take them on” attitude which lifts teams – and the fans. His 15  minute cameo in Cologne was the best thing that’s happened all tournament.

The great thing about football is that it can all turn in an instant. The draw has opened up for England in the most advantageous way. Portugal didn’t even win a single group game at Euro 2016 and were still cavorting down the Champs Elysees a fortnight later after beating France in the final.

Don’t die wondering, England. It’s time to be brave – on the ball, with your attitude, with your approach because there’s no way this current approach is going to end fifty eight years of hurt.