Best bets
If Rory McIlroy wins the 89th Masters at Augusta National this weekend, I’ll be crying tears of joy. Not only on the course with his thrilling, charismatic play but off it too as a passionate spokesman for the game, he’s long been a beacon of light. Nobody deserves to win a Green Jacket more or to complete the career Slam that has proved so elusive since 2014. But I won’t be backing him.
No sports pundit likes being wrong but I would cheerfully face the brickbats and the ire, all the ‘couldn’t tip shit out of a shovel’ jibes, if the Northern Irishman could somehow pull it off at last to join the elite quintet of Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Tiger Woods who have won all four Majors. But there’s just too much baggage.
Just a few facts: this is McIlroy’s 17th Masters and he’s never really looked like winning any of them. Sure, he was runner-up to Scottie Scheffler three years ago but that was flattering, a stunning final round enabling him to jump from nowhere over toiling rivals but never with a realistic chance of catching the emphatic three-shot winner.
And, of course, as a tousle-haired 21-year-old he led them a merry dance in 2011 when he built up a four-shot advantage going into the final round, only to embarrass himself with one of the greatest collapses in Masters history.
The lead lasted just 34 minutes after eventual winner Charl Schwartzel opened with spectacular figures but Rory was still very much in it and one ahead when he arrived at the tenth. His hooked tee shot there would be the pivotal shot of the Masters.
And if the pressure of landing that first Masters was not enough, it doubled when he captured the US Open, the PGA Championship and our Open in the next three years to set himself for that longed-for Slam, the accolade which would cement his place among golf’s immortals.
Yet while ten attempts at the Slam since that 2014 Open triumph have produced six top-tens, there have always been signs of weakness, not just at Augusta but at all four Majors. It has been a very long time between drinks – and time is running out. We thought the drought was over last year until he missed two tiny putts on the final day of the US Open and gifted it to Bryson DeChambeau.
Yet here he is this week as the form horse, a victor on two championship courses, Pebble Beach and Sawgrass, and although I believe that, mentally and physically, he is the right frame of mind to win a Major, I fear it won’t be this one.
If world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler fails to make it three Green Jackets in four years, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t apart from the fact that he has failed to win in six starts since an injury delay, then it could be a LIV breakaway star who derails him rather than McIlroy – and that would be rubbing salt into the wound knowing Rory’s distaste for the Saudi rebel group.
Because of the obsession that this year it’s match-up between Scheffler and McIlroy with the rest just bit players, the price of Jon Rahm, world No. 1 not so long ago, Masters champion in 2023 and with five top-ten finishes from eight Augusta attempts, has become attractive and at 16/1looks an each-way snip with Fitzdares paying down to eighth place.
True, the big Spaniard has failed to win this year but has yet to finish outside the top ten and was still contending at a very demanding Doral on Sunday until a wretched bounce derailed him and he ran up a quadruple-bogey eight. The quality of his shot-making is still out of the top drawer.
Don’t rule out his compatriot Sergio Garcia either. At 45 there’s still plenty of fire in his belly and after a couple of years when he looked as if he was just going through the motions, he has reinvented himself. Since that LIV victory at his beloved Valderrama last July, Garcia has given himself a good talking-to. He has also had a chat with captain Luke Donald about what he needs to do to make a return to the Ryder Cup where’s he’s leading points scorer.
Victory on Sunday would settle all arguments and he is a course winner, getting up to beat Justin Rose in a photo-finish in 2017. To back him, you have to gloss over his five missed cuts at Augusta since, but watching his all-round game closely on two of his latest LIV starts, winner in Singapore, third in Miami, was an education in shot creativity and even his often-suspect putting held up to close inspection. The 80/1 looks generous.
Tyrrell Hatton and Chilean win machine Joaquin Niemann are two jokers from the LIV pack who could also come up trumps. Hatton’s ninth last year was his best Masters and he is one of the few whose game has improved since signing for LIV. Three wins since, one with LIV, two on the DP World Tour, make impressive reading. But the temperament may not match the ability.
Niemann is LIV top dog at the moment, is a double winner this year and has encouraging recent 16-22 Augusta form. He is preferred to DeChambeau who was brash enough in his younger days to say Augusta’s real par for him was 67 and he would destroy it. We are still waiting and last year’s sixth was far and away his best performance. He led LIV Miami going into Sunday but played laughably badly under pressure.
Theoretically, Augusta’s wide-open 7555 yards should suit him to a T although it looks a little different after Hurricane Helene’s assault on some of the trees last year. But Amen Corner is just as frightening as it ever was and the entertainment provided for the patrons (don’t call them fans or you’ll be out) by the highs and lows of the short, watery 12th and those rich risk-and-reward par fives, the 13th and 15th, gives them enough to talk about for a lifetime.
Viktor Hovland’s totally unexpected victory at the Valspar after 18 months in the doldrums adds yet another bow to an already-strong Euro challenge. The drought was punishment for trying to improve on a swing that was working so well that many regarded the Tour Championship winner as the best golfer in the world at the end of 2023.
Some people are never satisfied but perfectionist Hovland is finally winning the battle … for the time being. Who knows what will follow? It could be a first Major or he could slump back to where he was a year ago. Looking at it positively, I’m expecting the Norwegian to be a big factor. He was seventh two years ago and you can forget last year’s missed cut as his mind was all over the place.
Tommy Fleetwood’s third last year was easily his best and he’s now made seven Masters cuts in a row but the place to back him is probably on the top-ten market. It’s the same with top Scot Bob MacIntyre who has impressed on both Augusta visits If it came to winning, Jordan Spieth, a real Augusta specialist and past champion, is preferred. Like Ludvig Aberg, he was Masters runner-up on debut. Can Aberg do what Spieth did the following year and go one better? Definitely but the Swede may not short-putt well enough on these glassy greens to justify his shortish price.
Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley and Min Woo Lee are all 2025 winners with a squeak, the Japanese No. 1 in particular.
He has a long record of excellence with his pinpoint iron play and it’s interesting to note he wasn’t playing great in the build-up to his 2021 triumph. The same could be said about his game now.
With only 95 runners (and 60 of those with little or no chance) going to post for the only Major played on the same course every year, this should be a week for punting and your best chance of making money out of the Majors.
Storms at the start of the week may have hindered practice rounds but all looks set fair for the tournament proper with maybe a bit of rain on Friday but a sunny weekend with temperatures in the low 20s and not enough wind to be a bother.
We haven’t had a real surprise since Danny Willett in 2016 and the roll of honour the last six years with Woods-Johnson-Matsuyama-Scheffler-Rahm-Scheffler ruling the roost tells you all you need to know about the qualities required in an Augusta champion. Class, class and more class. Bring it on!
Best bets
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