Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 11/4
Green Bay Packers @ 11/2
Los Angeles Rams @ 6/1
San Francisco 49ers @ 6/1
Seattle Seahawks @ 10/1
Dallas Cowboys @ 14/1
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Out of all the major sporting leagues around the world, the NFL navigated the complex operational challenges presented by Covid-19 better than most. The season ran on time, relatively few teams were affected significantly, and although the TV ratings for Super Bowl LV were the lowest since 2007, we’re still talking over 96 million viewers tuning in stateside, let alone the rest of us watching from afar.
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By far the biggest problem that all teams faced was the wholly unorthodox pre-season, fragmented, dislocated, and remote – affecting how teams could ingratiate new faces and incorporate new ideas. This time around, with the season kicking off in a week’s time, there have been no such issues with training camps back to near normality, as 31 teams scheme and plot to unseat the reigning Super Bowl champions the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led once again, by the remarkable Tom Brady, who, at 44 years old, showing no signs of slowing.
It’s very difficult for a team to post Super Bowl wins in back-to-back years, not least because the salary cap mechanic within the NFL means that retention of players is complex. Additionally, Super Bowl winning co-ordinators are inevitably in high demand for a head coaching role with also ran teams looking to bottle some of the magic from a championship winning side.
The fact that Tampa Bay have retained all 22 of their starters from last season, as well as Head Coach Bruce Arians, and co-ordinators Todd Bowles (Defense) & Byron Leftwich (Offensive) is both mightily impressive and wholly unorthodox and explains why they return as favourites to win the NFC conference and challenge for the Vince Lombardi trophy in LA next February.
Consider the potential potency of an offense led by Brady, who threw 50 touchdowns last season (including the playoffs) with all the weapons he has at his disposal, 18 months of developing the playbook with Arians, and a full pre-season to lock in his supporting cast on the same page. And a what a collection of offensive talent it is.
Receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin & Antonio Brown are all game changers, the evergreen Rob Gronkowski (who still offers Brady enough as an offensive threat to complement his highly efficient blocking), a solid running game (enhanced by the signing of veteran Gio Bernard) and some elite protection on the offensive line including Tristan Wirfs and Ali Marpet.
Defensively, the personnel that so effectively undid Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs returns in the Super Bowl. It’s a balanced unit – Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh bring power and strength, speed and agility further back in the pacy linebacking corps led by Devin White and Shaq Barrett and a secondary that features Antoine Winfield in his sophomore season, maturing & developing well.
There’s no doubt that the Bucs will present a formidable defense of their crown. So, who are the serious contenders in the NFC to challenge them?
Another key factor in the Bucs heading the pile in the NFC is the relative weakness of their division, the NFC South, particularly compared to recent years. The New Orleans Saints begin life without Hall of Fame bound quarterback Drew Brees, with the much-maligned former Buc Jameis Winston stepping in. Winston has already flexed in pre-season, showing that he can re-introduce the deep ball to a Saints offense that’s been missing it in the latter years of Brees, and the upside for the former number one overall pick is significant if Sean Payton can teach him to limit the turnovers that have plagued his professional career to date. But the Saints, who pose the biggest threat divisionally to Tampa Bay are less of a force than in recent years.
Atlanta is in rebuild mode, and whilst they’ll entertain and land some blows with Calvin Ridley emerging as their number one receiver, rookie sensation Kyle Pitts teaming up with veteran Matt Ryan, whose demise is overstated, they can’t be viewed as serious contenders, even with a defense that should improve year on year. Carolina is the most intriguing of the four, with Jets cast off, former number three overall pick Sam Darnold commencing his redemption campaign in new digs. Head Coach Matt Rhule is highly regarded from his college days, but the Panthers will most likely represent a work in progress as opposed to a team that can land a playoff spot, though some see them as one of those teams that emerges, every year, from a losing record to the postseason.
More likely to fill that spot are the NFC East’s Dallas Cowboys, who celebrate the return of franchise QB Dak Prescott, injured for most last season, and freshly signed to a long-term deal. Like Brady, Prescott has an impressive group around him, though the Cowboys offensive line isn’t as dominant as previous iterations we’ve seen in Texas over the last decade. Nevertheless, Dallas will be able to move the ball easily against most teams so the question is whether they can contain their opposition with a young, untested defense. Expect shootouts galore, and a highly watchable team, who, like Tampa Bay, will benefit from a weak division.
Philly have moved on from Super Bowl winning Head Coach Doug Pederson and former starting QB Carson Wentz and are another team in flux. The New York Giants have gone all-in on Daniel Jones, their first round QB who’s in a make or break season, adding highly sought after free agent WR Kenny Golladay to the ranks, and remain an interesting proposition under second year Head Coach Joe Judge, particularly if returning superstar running back Saquon Barkley can stay healthy, but it’s Washington that are most likely to run Dallas closest, shaped by their visceral defense front, but enhancing their offense year on year, with the addition of veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who’ll inject more life into proceedings than his most recent predecessors, particularly with wideouts Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin.
In the North, Green Bay could possibly be the most dangerous of all the rivals to the Super Bowl champs, not least because the relentless speculation around the future of their MVP QB Aaron Rodgers has only recently been put to bed, and the drama has somewhat masked the talent the Packers possess.
Rodgers returns to a dangerous offense. Last year, on his way to the league MVP award, he set career highs for TD’s (48) and completion percentage (70.7) and assuming his young receivers support number one WR Davante Adams and develop as the Packers clearly expect them to, choosing not to take a receiver in the first round of either of the last two drafts, then expect more of the same from the Green Bay offense this year. Defensively, they’ve shored up some obvious holes – including in the secondary with first round pick Eric Stokes, a highly rated CB from Georgia, and expect them to contend once again.
Chicago will be fascinating if they start rookie sensation Justin Fields at quarterback as everyone is clamouring for them to do, though the smart play could be for veteran Andy Dalton to steer things for a while, and let Fields observe and learn, much like the Chiefs Patrick Mahomes did under Alex Smith during his early days in Kansas City.
The West is once against the strongest division in the conference, with each of the 4 teams having have a credible shot at winning. Seattle has a much more balanced side than they did going into last season, where they still won the division with a 12-4 record. Like Rodgers in Green Bay, Russell Wilson is an exceptional talent that’s been increasingly unsettled at the only team he’s ever played for but returns with a solid cast of supporting characters and will hope that he gets more protection from a porous offensive line, bolstered by the addition of Gabe Jackson from the Raiders. Defensively, Seattle has some major playmakers including Jamal Adams & Quandre Diggs, and Bobby Wagner is the consummate defensive pro, and it’s a unit that is better than many credit.
It needs to be in a division that sees the Rams go all-in with a win now deal that’s brought Matthew Stafford in at QB, and it’ll be interesting to see how offensive whizz Sean McVay leverages a deep arm that he just didn’t have with Stafford’s predecessor Jared Goff. Defensively, playmakers like Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald make the Rams box office again, though the loss of Michael Brockers is a blow.
Arizona – and the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray coach/QB tag-team find themselves in a prove-it situation. They had a boom-and-bust season last time around – starting strongly, fading fast. In the NFC East, they’d be the favourites, in the West, they’re the outsiders. San Francisco are another team, like the Bears, to have drafted a dynamic young quarterback (Trey Lance) who could happily sit, watch, and learn whilst the incumbent veteran, the talented but injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo leads them. Jimmy G is underrated, and the 49’ers have a host of elite players returning after a season riddled with injury and will feel that a deep playoff run is a realistic ambition.
