Best bets
3pts each-way Justin Thomas @ 11/1
3pts win Xander Schauffele @ 11/2
1pt each-way Akshay Bhatia @ 28/1
1pt each-way Sahith Theegala @ 25/1
1pt each-way Ludvig Aberg @ 14/1
view odds
Place FIVE pre-tournament bets and get an in-play matched FREE BET! T&Cs apply.
They’re off! Well, most of them are, though not the injured Scottie Scheffler, as the PGA Tour tees off at Kapalua with its traditional pipe-opener in Hawaii, the Sentry – what used to be called the Tournament of Champions – on the blissful island of Maui.
Scheffler cut his right hand on a broken glass, puncturing the palm, while preparing the Christmas feast, needed surgery and is in a race against time to make the American Express in two weeks, his next intended appearance.
While the withdrawal of the world No. 1 from the first of eight £20m Signature events on the PGA’s 39-tour-stop journey is a major body blow to fans and sponsor, the sighs of relief from the 60 left in the tournament were audible as this nine-time 2024 winner would have started a very warm favourite. The Olympic gold medalist and Masters champion is fast approaching Tiger Woods status.
Now the $3.6m first prize is up for grabs on the wide-open, fast-rolling Plantation course, a rare par 73 with five par fives where birdies are freely available to a field limited to 2024 tour winners and those who finished in the FedEx Cup top 50.
In the absence of not only Scheffler but also Rory McIlroy and LIV high-flyers Jon Rahm and US Open champion Bryson DeChambeau, the mantle of favourite automatically falls on double 2024 Major winner Xander Schauffele.
Deservedly so as he lost the unwanted tag of “best player not to win a Major” in spectacular style by landing the 2024 PGA Championship-Open double, thus ridding himself of the negative thoughts which had often marred his game on Sundays and cost him dear.
Not only did Schauffele win the Sentry under its old name six years ago, his Kapalua record since has been admirable, just failing to defend successfully the following year (pipped in a playoff) and racking up finishes of fifth, 12th and tenth in three completed attempts since.
He is the man to beat but at the prices I’m keener on Justin Thomas making it a happy New Year for Fitzdares punters.
JT has a cracking record at Kapalua, even more compelling than Schauffele’s – winner in 2017 and 2020, third in 2019 and 2021, fifth in 2022. His game dipped for the next two years and he didn’t even qualify in 2024 but he’s back in the old familiar JT groove now, showing he had worked out his problems, both in driving and putting, with second place in the ZOZO in Japan at the back-end of the season, followed by third to Scheffler in the Hero World Challenge in The Bahamas.
It’s reassuring that January was a good month for him last year (3rd at AmEx, 6th at Pebble Beach ) particularly after a drab winless run since the 2022 PGA Championship and I sense in this Ryder Cup year we shall be hearing a lot from the 31-year-old from Kentucky who is one of classiest acts the Americans have when firing on all cylinders.
With early-week rain stretching into Thursday taking any sting out of the course and minimal wind on an exposed layout which needs it to blow to protect it, the Plantation is once again there for the taking. Scoring can be phenomenally low. Cameron Smith’s 34-under 258 in 2022, averaging 64.8 per round, was mind-boggling.
Last year big outsider Chris Kirk got it done with 29 under and it is a set-up where anyone with a hot putter and pinpoint approach shots can spring an upset. I’ll never forget Swedish journeyman Daniel Chopra having the week of his life in 2008, holing everything to beat Steve Stricker in a playoff. He never won again.
Victory this week for Nico Echevarria, Max Greyserman, Davis Thompson or Taylor Pendrith would come into the Chopra category but I wouldn’t put you off any of them for an each-way punt. Sentry debutant Greyserman, a top-20 performer in the second half of the year with three second places and zero missed cuts, could turn out to be the best of them.
More logically, Sahith Theegala, Sweden’s Ludvig Aberg and Akshay Bhatia look more like to trouble Thomas and Schauffele. Theegala was runner-up to Kirk on his Kapalua debut and finished third at the Tour Championship. In between, a series of quality performances yet he finished the year without a win.
He has strengthened his back and core and is now longer and straighter off the tee, up to 27th from the 90s in that category. He also finished the year strongly though not quite as impressively as Bhatia, who is only 22, was a winner in Texas, and has greater scope for improvement. Switching to a broomhandle-style putter has lifted one of the tour’s previously most fragile performers on the greens, from 183rd place to 33rd and in the top ten from 10ft in.
He also made an eyecatching Kapalua debut last January, entering the final round with a winning chance before the flat stick let him down and he faded to 14th. Now possessing far more self-belief, the Los Angeles youngster looks set for an even better year.
With Viktor Hovland not a certain starter after injuring his toe in a freak Christmas accident, Europe’s main challengers look to be Aberg, Bob MacIntyre, Arron Rai and, if back to his best after a grim 2024, Matt Fitzpatrick.
It was a surprise that Aberg failed to win but his season stalled with a knee problem that flared up in May and required surgery. He waited until after the Tour Championship to have it done, playing in discomfort throughout the summer.
I would be inclined to ignore his relative lack of success during that period while admitting that finishing only 47th on his Kapalua bow is slightly off-putting. Yet now he’s fully fit again you ignore him at your peril.
Last but not least, the Asian challenge may be missing the exciting Tom Kim, but Sungjae Im has strong course credentials (6-13-8-5 the past four years), Ben An finally got it done, edging out Kim in a DP World Tour playoff in Korea , Si Woo Kim must never be underrated and Hideki Matsuyama still has plenty of petrol left in the tank. With US Ryder Cup aces Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa likely to be to the fore as well, stand by for a flying start to 2025!
For all your bets on the DP World Tour, visit our dedicated golf betting page.
