What price a shock result in the election? Never say never, says Michael Howard, who knows a thing or two about entering a campaign as a rank outsider…
Rishi Sunak’s decision to hold the general election on 4 July took everyone by surprise. That certainly included me. But the initial controversy over his decision has, as was inevitable, subsided and all minds are now focused on the outcome.
As everyone knows, the Conservatives go into this campaign as the underdogs. I have some experience of leading a party into a general election campaign as the underdogs: in 2005 I was leader of the opposition and Tony Blair was the strong favourite to win.
I don’t want to draw too many parallels between the two, not least because I lost and I still very much hope that the Conservatives can win this time round.
And, of course, fighting an election as prime minister is very different from doing so from opposition.
‘It’s a gruelling business, with practically every minute of the day accounted for.’
But what I found – and what I suspect Rishi will find – is that you put the polls out of your mind and focus on doing your very best in the campaign. It’s a gruelling business, with practically every minute of the day accounted for, but I hugely enjoyed it.
As leader of the opposition it’s what you’ve been gearing up for, and I found it rather exhilarating to meet so many people in so many different parts of the country, even though there is obviously a whistlestop element in all that’s involved. So I hope Rishi enjoys it, too.
One of the curious (and little mentioned) things about this election is that, in my view at least, there is a paradox at the heart of it. Many people, and I am one of them, think that the medium- to long-term prospects for our country are very encouraging.
We are particularly well placed to take advantage of the biggest opportunities facing the world over the next few decades.
As the world gets richer and older, its demand for things like financial services, new medicines and cultural and sporting pursuits will grow exponentially. The United Kingdom is one of the two great financial centres in the world and the biggest exporter of those services.
Our pharmaceutical sector is also one of the world’s powerhouses, and our creative arts sector sets the standard for so many others. We have a significant capability in technology and artificial intelligence. In sport, the Premier League is watched with passion everywhere and supporters of our leading clubs can be found in large numbers on every continent.
But the short-term fiscal outlook for any future government is undoubtedly very challenging. This is because the cost of the furlough scheme, which helped so many businesses to survive the pandemic, and the cost of helping people with their energy bills, which have soared as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have led to a considerable increase in government borrowing and taxation.
These policies, which, for good or ill – and I and most people would, I think, recognise as being for good – were the responsibility of Rishi Sunak, first as chancellor and then as prime minister. But most of those, including the Labour Party, who were critical at the time wanted more, not less, spent on these schemes.
As a result there are constraints on public spending, which will mean that whoever forms the government after the election will have very little room for manoeuvre.
‘One of the curious things about this election is that there is a paradox at the heart of it.’
Labour have promised not to increase income tax or national insurance, but will they increase property taxes, possibly by introducing new and higher bands for council tax? Perhaps this will become clearer during the campaign.
Both parties acknowledge that the holy grail is economic growth. And the very latest figures show that we are growing faster than most comparable countries, including even the United States. But economists always warn against reading too much into one quarter’s figures.
What everyone recognises is that economic growth depends on the performance of our wealth-creating private sector. It is far from clear that Labour’s proposals for enhancing workers’ rights will help to achieve this very desirable outcome.
If you make it easier to strike and more difficult for employers to run their businesses, you are hardly creating the environment in which economic growth is likely.
The other great issue, which has rarely featured in previous election campaigns, is defence. Everyone agrees that we are living in a very dangerous world, and there is a clear difference in the commitment of the parties to take action in this area.
Are there differences which might particularly affect clients of Fitzdares? Both parties seem committed to the establishment of the football regulator, and the election is unlikely to influence the future of the Financial Fair Play rules which many of us – and I confess I speak as a Liverpool fan – would like to see strictly enforced.
But almost every other area of our national life will be affected by the outcome of the election. We only have a few more weeks before we know our fate.
Michael Howard, Lord Howard of Lympne, was leader of the Conservative Party 2003-2005.
