SOUTH AFRICA vs BRITISH & IRISH LIONS
First Test, Saturday August 7th, 5pm
South Africa @ 4/6
Draw @ 16/1
British & Irish Lions @ 11/8
view odds
Six alterations to the starting personnel and three to the bench. Warren Gatland has been ringing the changes in the wake of last Saturday’s heavy defeat. Yet a bunch of fresh faces will not be enough. If they cannot come up with anything but another imitation of the heavyweight world champions, they are destined to lose. The only question being the scale of the loss.
We get it – that the test game is kick heavy. We understand that South Africa are a mighty defensive team but there remains room for variety. Or are we saying that within the entirety of Lions land, there is no one with the temerity to take on the Springboks (without throwing the ball and caution to the winds.) Unless questioned, this green machine is likely to produce exclamation mark like tackles. The fear becomes a fact, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But hang on; we are jumping the gun – or the endless referee’s whistle – it starts up front where the Springboks finished the second test in charge but not such complete control that the Lions cannot turn matters around. Wyn Jones was the chosen loose head for the first test. Injury hit him and the Lions scrum. He is the best technician available to Gatland and decent in the loose too. His return is good news.
The scrum has the look of a priority with another tough Welshman, Ken Owens starting. He is a tough scrummager and knows Jones’s ‘little tricks’ inside out. From a scrum perspective it makes sense but I fear for the line out where the Springboks start with three second rows littering the line out. Owens has been known to struggle under pressure. The touch line is not an obvious option for the visitors. I would have liked to see Jamie George, the 2017 test hooker, play. He is the most reliable thrower. For whatever reason he has not made the 23 for any of the tests.
Where South Africa gain in the tight they might lose in the loose with Franco Mostert not as experienced as Courtney Lawes switching from second to back row. The Saint – superb in the first test – was more subdued in the second but here’s an area where the Lions can look for an edge.
Behind the respective packs it is all change at scrum half. Ali Price regains the scrum half shirt. He was quick and accurate in the first test but needs to hassle his opposite man more. In this instance it is not Faf de Klerk but former Northampton scrum half, Cobus Reinach.
The Lions will be relieved to see the back of the blonde tearaway but Reinach is a different sort of threat. One of the quickest, of mind and foot, when it comes to spotting a half gap, the Lions will have to ensure the fringes are even more shored up than usual. I remember Reinach getting a rare start for his country in the World Cup. He scored a hat trick.
This man is dangerous and if he simply holds the Lions defence around the fringe, I can see Handre Pollard running and bringing his back line into play. South Africa may be conservative by nature but this is a three quarter line loaded with power in the centre and pace out wide. From a neutral perspective the possibility of Cheslin Kolbe and Makazole Mapimpi getting their hands on some ball is appealing.
I can’t help but think Van der Merwe versus Kolbe is a mismatch waiting to happen. The Lions have less threat ball in hand than the Springboks. Bundee Aki is tough but unsubtle, although he and Robbie Henshaw do know each other’s game well. In three tests this is the 3rd centre partnership. That is not the mark of confident selection.
In contrast, Dan Biggar starts a third straight test. He has played to orders and looked a poorer player for it. Standing way too deep, he has telegraphed the Lions kicking game. The kicks have been decent but South Africa has been waiting for them. Gregor Townsend – the attack coach – played it flat but he wasn’t anywhere near as good a kicker as the Welshman whilst being infinitely superior as a playmaker.
Biggar has to play from positions where South Africa are unsure what comes next.
Which brings us nicely to Finn Russell. He has been selected ahead of Owen Farrell after a few weeks injured. His instinct is to play flatter and mix the variety of his game. If the Lions are losing he must be given enough time to turn it around.
The reality is that if the South Africans have the score board lead and momentum with them going into the second half, a lot more than the erratic genius of Russell and the belated selections of Josh Adams, in particular, and Liam Williams, will be required to stop the Springbok steamroller.
Logic tells me South Africa hold the aces. I thought they would win last week but not with quite the margin and dominance. It will take one of the great Lions efforts to arrest the momentum. Seven days – however – is a long time in rugby union. I can’t see the visitors winning but I can see the margin of victory being no more than 10 points with Adams a teasing bet for 1st try scorer, whatever his odds.
The good news for Lions fans is the crystal ball is a little bit murky on the Barnes shelf. I hope you enjoy the game. It won’t be remembered as a great series, whatever happens, but one great game would be wonderful, wouldn’t it?
Especially if you are British or Irish. Good luck to everyone and, especially, the French referee, Mathieu Raynal. Here’s to less TMO, more on field whistle.
