Wales, in front of their home fans will throw everything at this one and I expect them to cover the -28 handicap at 19/20. It might take a while but they’ll get there.
The big news was the axing of Scotland’s most creative player, Finn Russell. Gregor Townsend has a chequered relationship with his fly half. This week relations dipped again as the man who orchestrated Scotland’s win against England made way for the far less experienced Blair Kinghorn. He has pace and will take the ball to the Irish gain line (Russell does have a tendency to sometimes drift across the field) but those perfect late pop passes and the array of defence confusing chips will be missed. Maybe Scotland’s prime concern is shoring up their defence.
They’ll need to. Ireland and France are significantly better teams than the rest. Ireland have not found their rhythm against 13 and 14 Italians and Englishmen respectively in the last two rounds but they got outside England at outside centre easily. They lost little in defeat in Paris and were wonderful against Wales. In that, the Italian and England game, they started well. Expect the same today with St Patrick’s Day and a clean sweep at Cheltenham yesterday to fuel the atmosphere in the stadium. The Triple Crown is there for the taking.
The championship is out of their hands. They require an England win but what Andy Farrell’s have a superior points difference which reflects the relentlessness of their game when they are on top. The odds on the home win are prohibitive but with those fast starts a good habit, I like the 4-6 available with Fitzdares for Jonny Sexton’s team to win both halves.
As for first tryscorer let’s have a little hedge with Darcy Graham razor sharp on the Scotland wing. He is value at 14-1 as is Caelan Dorris at 16-1. He is never far from the action and picks great running lines. He sees space like a top class centre.
FRANCE vs ENGLAND, Saturday March 19th, 8pm
Best bets
France -8 points @ 19/20
France to win by 11-15 points @ 9/2
view odds
Eddie Jones has made a decisive call in bringing George Furbank into the side at full back and switching Freddie Steward to the right wing. Expect the players to constantly change positions but, essentially, England want to isolate the French pocket rocket, Gabin Villiere, against the 6 foot five inch Tiger. If you are an optimist, it makes the 12-1 on Steward being the first try scorer look a smart punt.
Ben Youngs has been recalled, presumably to ensure England kick and keep it tight. It appears England’s best hope, although one wonders why Jones didn’t go the whole hog and select George Ford, the scrum half’s club partner, at ten instead of Marcus Smith. With England looking to play territory and narrowed rugby, Jamie George is another worth consideration for first try scorer at 20-1.
I’d rather consider the claims of Antoine Dupont however. This is the moment France has been waiting for; a crack at a first Grand Slam in over a decade. France flew out of the blocks in the two homes games against Ireland and Scotland and can do so again tonight. Dupont made the first try in one of those games and scored the other.
English hopes rest on the way Wales made them fight for victory last week. But that was a Friday night in Cardiff, this is a Saturday in Paris. Two very different sets of circumstances. It has not helped England that Mathieu Reynal accepted he got the scrums wrong in the England v Ireland game. That England hinged and Ireland were unjustly penalised.
Jaco Peyper, tonight’s referee, will have seen the comments. Suddenly, life looks a lot harder for Ellis Genge against Uini Atonio then it did at the start of the week. Take England’s scrum dominance (by which I predominantly mean penalties awarded) and the Ireland performance loses its shine.
France have a balance in the centre where England do not, confidence from settled selection where England do not. Everything is in their favour. One weakness in Cardiff was the full back’s handling of the high ball. Ford’s spiral bombs could have been another avenue of attack but Jones hasn’t gone full Eddie with the changes.
Taking all this into account I recommend France at 19/20 to cover -8 points and a small dabble at 9-2 to win by 11-15 points. If you took 100-30 about the Grand Slam pre Six Nations, you might want to back England as an emotional hedge. I wouldn’t waste the money.
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