Ireland @ 5/4
France @ 15/8
England @ 4/1
Wales @ 11/1
Scotland @ 20/1
Italy @ 500/1
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ENGLAND vs SCOTLAND, Saturday February 4th, 4:45pm
Best bets
Scotland to win @ 3/1
Scotland to win by 1-5 points @ 6/1
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England unveil Steve Borthwick as they face Scotland in the first round of the Six Nations. There was a time when England would be nailed on to win this Calcutta Cup tie at Twickenham but not any more. Scotland have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 5 encounters with England, including victory in 2021 and 2022.
They may have lost to both Australia (last kick of the game) and New Zealand (the better team for an hour) but their performance levels were high. Their Finn Russell inspired demolition of Argentina is striking form line when one thinks back to the England loss against the South Americans.
There are signs of Scottish confidence. Chris Harris is the best defensive centre in the UK yet Scotland coach, Gregor Townsend, has omitted him from the starting XV. His outside centre position goes to Huw Jones, a beautifully balanced attacking player who tore England to pieces in 2018. Townsend has a reputation for caution. This looks a bold selection.
England, under Borthwick, will have worked assiduously on their set piece but with two South African born titans at prop, the Bristol duo of Kyle Sinckler and Ellis Genge may find their legs wobbly early in the 2nd half. Scotland also look strong in the back row. Edinburgh and Glasgow, the core of their side are going well and then there is Finn Russell at half back with London Irish scrum half, Ben White, the sharpest scrum half in the Premiership. There is a lot to like about this Scotland side.
And yet England, with the usual patriotic passion are 1-4. What will be so different between the last two meetings of these nations and the Autumn? The answer is a new management, a fresh approach and a squad not in fear of failure. There will have been extensive work on the set piece but this is decent Scotland pack. Marcus Smith and Owen Farrell remains a work in progress and only quick phase ball will bring them into the game on the gain line.
The loss of Tom Curry, perhaps the non selection of Tom Willis, and Henry Slade’s injury all hurt the side. If I take venue – which won’t frighten this Scotland team – and the once historic certainty that the visitors cannon conquer Twickenham out of the equation it’s easy to make Scotland favourites.
1-4 is prohibitive for even for the most patriotic of Englishman. Far more appealing is Scotland at 3-1 with a little saver on the draw at 22-1. It should be tight. If you go with the notion of a narrow away win, 6-1 on Scotland to win by a margin of 1-5 points is interesting too. If you must back England, back them to win by the narrowest margin.
As many of you reading this are English this advice will go unheeded. If you are Scottish, well, don’t be afraid. The rugby markets are normally sharp, this one looks a little skewed, perhaps by the expected bounce of the new manager. There’s no guarantee.
WALES vs IRELAND, Saturday February 4th, 2:15pm
Best bets
Ireland to win the Grand Slam @ 3/1
Wales HT/Ireland FT @ 13/2
Ireland to win by 6-10 points @ 100/30
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The tournament kicks off in Cardiff with Warren Gatland returning to Wales. So often an alchemist, this time around, his tricks are not expected to stop Ireland…..have I mentioned Ireland for the Grand Slam yet? I will now. They may not have won in Wales since 2013 but this is a limited and ageing Welsh side and a slick, confident Irish one. World Rugby has rated Ireland No 1 in the world before to my confusion. This time they deserve to be near the top. I tipped France for the Slam last season because they faced Ireland in Paris. With the Big Two facing off in Dublin, I recommend 3-1 the Irish Grand Slam. They can overcome the loss of Tadhg Furlong.
Wales, with vast experience and the motivational skills of their old coach could come out like a furnace of fired up Dragons but Ireland are smart enough to stay in touch and pull away in the latter stages. 13/2 for Wales at half time and Ireland at full time is my tentative tip with an even smaller side bet on Ireland to win by 6-10 points at 100-30.
ITALY vs FRANCE, Sunday February 5th, 3pm
Best bets
France -21 points @ 19/20
Ange Capuozzo first try scorer @ 20/1
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Italy are probably the most improved of the Six Nations sides. Then again they had plenty of room to improve. They had that epic win in Cardiff last season and a narrow, historic first ever win against Australia which ties their form lines in with Scotland and Ireland. A win is expected in the 2023 Six Nations but not against a France team which won every one of its test matches in 2022 and showed a crucial capacity to eke out wins when not at their best. If forced into a handicap bet I would take France at -21 to win at 19/20.
If France are slow out of their blocks there are worse fun bets than the World Breakthrough Player of the Year, Ange Capuozzo to be 1st try scorer in Sunday’s game @ 20/1.
For all your bets on the Six Nations, visit our dedicated Rugby Union betting page.
