SIX NATIONS 2024
Anyone else thinking, ‘oh, for a decent Six Nations long shot?’ It’s going to be bad enough with Willie Mullins’s cavalry at Cheltenham next week but don’t lose faith. I think there’s a 14/1 Six Nations bet worth a punt…
Located in the Player Of The Tournament category, Tadhg Beirne is worth serious consideration. The magnificent Irish second row with the skills to waltz into any test team as a back row forward produced what I rate the performance of the tournament to date when Ireland thrashed France on the first Friday of the Six Nations.
He was ubiquitous. Not just everywhere but doing everything superbly.
I know Duhan van der Merwe is the stuff of headlines and Dan Sheehan a prolific front row try scorer but if you think Ireland will make history and win back to back Grand Slams, it will be a surprise to see anyone other than an Irish winner. Sheehan is 2/1 and the easy pick but if we get into the `how do they do it?’ debate, Beirne epitomises what makes Andy Farrell’s men tick.
He has one great performance to his name already. This weekend, he is up against Maro Itoje, the England lock and high profile performer. If Beirne eclipses him in the headline match of round 4, people will be chattering about the Munster forward. Thereafter, his next game – bar injury – will be the huge occasion of the back to back Grand Slam game against Scotland in Ireland.
He might not have the usual profile for a player of the tournament award but a few more of those 50.22 kicks, some scything runs and endless turnovers (not to forget the basics of his line out and link play) could see the second row receiving the acclaim he deserves. At 14/1 you don’t have to risk too much but the reward in backing Tadhg Beirne could be extremely worthwhile.
ENGLAND vs IRELAND
Obviously, the previous few paragraphs suggest that I fancy Ireland to win the Grand Slam. I do but I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1/5 at Twickenham. Defeat is possible; these things happen but I’d need Ireland to be double the price at 2/5 to back them – with England 7/1 rather than 7/2 to derail Farrell’s men.
England at 7/2 in Twickenham is quite a price but don’t be tempted. It’s still too short when one reflects on the last few years. The home side have been consistent only in their mediocrity; Ireland in their excellence. The favourites have lost just the one game in recent memory.
That was a classic World Cup quarter final encounter against an inspired All Black team. There is no suggestion that England have the capacity to perform anywhere near the level of that quarter final.
Ireland – read this as a reason for optimism if you are Englishmen of faith – have been intermittent in their standards against Italy and Wales. But England at Twickenham is another matter. The atmosphere will lift their game. If I didn’t have the emotional baggage of being an Englishman, I’d say back Ireland at 19/20 giving up a 12 point start.
Miracles don’t happen but sporting shocks do, so avoid Ireland at 1/5. The reward isn’t worth the risk. If Ireland perform near peak, and I suspect they might, it’s likelier to end with a 20 point pasting than a brave and narrow defeat.
Best bet: Ireland -12 @ 19/20.
ITALY vs SCOTLAND
Before Twickenham the weekend gets underway in Rome, where Italy haven’t won in the Six Nations since 2013. The crowd got behind them against England and after one of their great results in the competition – the round 3 draw in France – there’ll be a fair level of belief that the long wait could be coming to an end.
The 4/1 against an Italian win is a teaser. It’s not as if Scotland are a consistent force. If they play for 80 minutes as they did the first 40 in Cardiff this season, they will win by more than 12 points they have to give up. If they play as they did in the 2nd half of that match, the 4/1 is a good thing.
Since then Scotland have beaten England (but does that form amount to anything) and lost narrowly to France – that is a negative looking at France’s effort v Italy. That’s the down side.
The plus side is that Finn Russell has been talking about Scotland kicking less and `having some fun,’ in the build up. Russell is good enough to open up all bar the best defences in this mood. His goal kicking is perfect to date and van der Merwe is the sharpest finisher in the competition. Call it a feeling, but it would not surprise me to see Scotland win a high scoring encounter if the weather holds in Rome.
There’s confidence behind them. As I was writing this column I saw the 1/5 on an outright Scottish win drift to 2/11. Scotland will have to prove their consistency before it is recommended to lump on at such a prohibitive price. 19/20 giving Italy 12 points is the gentle recommendation.
Best bet: Scotland -11 @ 19/20.
WALES vs FRANCE
This leaves us with Sunday’s game. Last week I was guesting on Times Radio and tipped Wales – without a win in 3 games – to beat France. When the Welsh team was announced I was shocked to see both their centres were omitted.
As if experience was a weakness….maybe it is when a team becomes used to losing. Doesn’t sound promising does it? But – here we go – back Wales to beat France. They are 21/10. A two horse race and the other horse is in a terrible state.
One of the best No 8s in the world is injured, the best player in the world is off winning sevens tournaments, their best two fly halves are injured and the inside centre who gets them over the gain line and acts as a 4th flanker at the breakdown, is suspended. The spine of the French team has snapped.
France and their manager are in disarray. Wales at better than 2/1 is worth a flutter, whichever side of the Severn you live.
Enjoy the weekend. It’s quite a warm up for Cheltenham. Ireland expects the festival to start with success on Saturday. I’ll be back with thoughts, hangovers, profundities and, no doubt a few profanities as we battle the bookies at the Festival.
Best bet: Wales to win @ 12/5.
For all your bets on the Six Nations, visit our dedicated Rugby Union betting page.
