MEN’S RUGBY WORLD CUP 2023
8th September – 28th October
New Zealand @ 11/4
France @ 3/1
South Africa @ 10/3
Ireland @ 9/2
Australia @ 11/1
England @ 14/1
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Folks, Fitzdares have excelled themselves with just about every market you could possibly want ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France. I could spend days picking out best bets but unfortunately there’s a plane to catch for Paris.
So let’s focus on ‘the Big Four Punts’. Who will win? Who will be Player of the Tournament? Who will top the try charts and – one for the opening weekend – who deserves to be favourites when England and Argentina face off in Marseilles? Let’s start with the most important of the quartet, who will win?
1. Stick with France to win the trophy. 4 years ago I fancied South Africa throughout the calendar year – until England demolished New Zealand in the semi finals; the same New Zealand that beat the Springboks at pool stage. DON’T CHANGE YOUR MIND.
Ireland were a confident Grand Slam choice this season and you regulars will know France were tipped for Grand Slam glory in 2022. Both countries remain serious contenders but France has the home advantage that helped them last year and Ireland this year.
This is the 10th World Cup. In the previous 9 home advantage has counted on 3 occasions. One home winner every 3 competitions. 3-1. France are trading at 3-1. Yet examine deeper and the case for the home team becomes a compelling one. Of the 3 winners, the All Blacks were expected to prevail in 1987 and 2011. They duly did but had the 2011 final against France been anywhere but New Zealand, the result might have been very different. The refereeing wasn’t biased but there is undoubtedly a psychological pressure that assists the team with 80,000 fans rooting for them. That’s just human nature.
And South Africa wouldn’t have won against the All Blacks in 1995 had there not been something akin to otherworldly atmosphere in Johannesburg as the presence of Nelson Mandela lifted the roof off Ellis Park, Johannesburg.
So much for the 3 winners. In 1991 England had a pack to win it but failed in their Twickenham final. That’s a cross against home advantage. Wales had no hope in 1999; England had been the world’s best for years in 2003. Australia just getting to extra time was testimony to that certain something that comes with your own crowd.
France were never going to be good enough in 2007, nor were England and Japan in more recent tournaments. Eliminate the 4 historical no hopers and we have 3 winners and 2 runners up from the 5 fancied hosts. The odds are on this outstanding French team making the final, even with injury concerns ahead of Friday night’s game with New Zealand.
The All Blacks are 11-4 favourites despite the loss to South Africa. The bookmakers have sensibly not overreacted to recent events at Twickenham but they buy too much into this summer’s Rugby Championship where the Springbok team was in experimental mode. At 100-30 South Africa are a better bet than New Zealand; so too Ireland at 9-2.
In this book only 3 teams can win. The All Blacks are not well enough lead, on or off the field, to put together a World winning sequence of performances. France, with the significance of home advantage are the strong tip at 3-1, although the opening night could be tight.
2. For player of the tournament look no further than Antoine Dupont. He’s the 7-1 favourite. With the world united in its belief that he’s the best rugby player on the planet, when he lifts the Webb Ellis trophy as captain of France it will be very hard to look away from the skipper. He has not been at full throttle through the warm ups but he exudes an air of control. Can you imagine NOT backing him at 7-1 when Paris erupts?
You can? Well, in this case there are two South African alternatives. Siya Kolisi was a great leader in 2019. After injuries that made him a doubt for selection this time, he has won his race against injury and looks better than ever. Kolisi is a massive personality within the game and central to his team. At 12-1 he is 2nd favourite. However, the most amazing value comes in the vast shape of the world’s best tight forward, Eben Etzebeth.
A colossus of the game, a figure the TV cameras are drawn to (important as an influencer for an award that is purely subjective) he is a ludicrous price at 66-1. He is the first and foremost saver. Should South Africa win, he could easily be the man.
A smaller saver should be invested on another Frenchman, Thomas Ramos. He’s flamboyant, plays with the vision of a fly half from full back and will not be afraid to do the unorthodox. Another one the cameras adore. He also happens to be a metronomic goal kicker. A points machine with a touch of magic. And he too is 66-1.
3. Top try scorer: Beauden Barrett is set to play against Ramos on opening night. He’s now New Zealand’s full back. He might well play fly half against Namibia, in which case he could help himself to a wheelbarrow full of tries. New Zealand are not my idea of World Cup winners but if they and Barrett catch fire, he could be a wild price at 80-1. The other picks for top try scorer are Andrew Kellaway, the Australian full back. Eddie Jones team have great attacking power and with the possibility of 80 minutes against Portugal and a run to the semi finals, there’s good reason for a tiny wager at 66-1.
Premiership watchers will know all about Mateo Carreras. Newcastle were at the wrong end of the table but he finished top try scorer and has continued to score his way into Argentina’s starting line up. 40-1 is a tease.
4. And finally…..England and Argentina are Evens at time of writing. Argentina have not been brilliant in the build up but Michael Cheika knows how to prepare a team for a World Cup. Does this England management?
If England were renamed `Italy’ and played in blue instead of white with a red rose, would you think they had the same chance as Argentina? The odds are wrong. Maybe Steve Borthwick’s boys have been keeping their weapons secret but on all known evidence – and that is all we have to go on – the Pumas should be strong favourites. If you are driven by your heart, don’t bet. If the head rules, Argentina are the weekend’s best bet at Evens.
Whatever happens, enjoy. It’s a celebration of rugby not jingoistic nonsense. Catch up in France!
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