France @ 3/1
Ireland @ 3/1
New Zealand @ 7/2
South Africa @ 7/2
England @ 11/1
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Where do we start? Paris hosts what could arguably be two of the great quarter finals while down in Marseille there’s an argument that these two matches could be amongst the weakest of games at this stage of the tournament.
The world’s top four battle it out in the French capital. In varying ways all these teams have caught the eye for positive reasons. On the Med the ‘other 4’ have caught the eye for very different reasons. Wales, who kick off the quarter finals against Argentina, have been the best and most consistent of the lesser quarter finalists.
They play a simple version of the game. An aggressive breakdown and an improving set piece; behind the scrum, they have scored some good tries. The way they opened the Wallabies up in the 1st minute in Lyon was memorable and Louis Rees-Zammit is cementing a reputation as one of the world’s sharpest finishers.
In contrast, Argentina have struggled ever since Ben Earl knocked Santiago Carreras backwards against England and their 14 men. Japan gave them a game from first to last on Sunday but at least their was some grunt from the pack and incision in the shape of the bustling Newcastle Falcon winger, Mateo Carreras.
On known form, Wales are a reasonable bet at 8/15 to win but the tournament ending injury to Taulupe Faletau is a major blow to a back row that has been very good. On the Argentine front, if they opt for Nicholas Sanchez to play 10, we could see improvements behind the scrum. Santiago Carreras is a fine player but has been off his game in France. Sanchez gives shape and a deadly boot if he starts at 10.
If he is named in the starting line up, all bets are off. With Faletau out Argentina might just make another semi as they did in France, 2007.
Verdict – NO BET
Next up, one of the big ones. Ireland will expect to be beat New Zealand. Yes, they expect to beat the All Blacks and with good reason. New Zealand are rugby’s ‘aura’ team. The back jersey is enough to scare the life out of most teams. Ireland went 28 games without a win against them but since a groundbreaking win in Chicago have won 5 of their 8 meetings, including a series in New Zealand.
Under Ian Foster the Kiwis have become used to losing. Ireland, on a long winning run, are the serial winners. The best match in the tournament to date was Ireland’s narrow win against South Africa. The line out won’t malfunction as badly as this again and with Johnny Sexton sending his runners powering over the gain line, they produced the best 40 minutes of the entire competition as they smashed Scotland. They look every inch the world’s best team.
Ah but New Zealand were imperious in attack against Italy and they produced their unique brand of attacking magic against Namibia and Uruguay. But these were teams beaten at the breakdown. New Zealand are the world’s best at turning defence into attack. Ireland are as good as any at maintaining possession. Ireland can starve them off the turnover they thrive upon.
The All Blacks wilted against the physical power of South Africa at Twickenham and a French team with plenty in hand in Paris. Supporters can be blinded by the lights of the All Blacks but Ireland have a tactical and psychological edge over them.
Verdict: BACK IRELAND AT 8/11
England v Fiji isn’t easy to call. Fiji have played the best rugby of the two in their efforts against Wales and Australia but – poor as England have been for much of the tournament – the Fijian loss to Portugal eclipsed anything England has managed in terms of the awful stakes.
England, with a line out to trouble the hugely troubled Fiji line out, should be able to play their limited brand of territorial rugby and pressurise their way to the semis. Should. But England were fortunate to beat Samoa and Fiji, on their day, are a far superior team. And they have that recent 1st ever win against England.
What they don’t have is Caleb Muntz, their injured fly half. His absence has been magnified in the last few games. The bridge between Fiji’s backs and forwards isn’t built on firm foundations. Then again, it is impossible for any bar the most blinkered patriot to back such an out of form team as England.
England are 1-3. All evidence tells you to avoid such prohibitive odds against a team with Fiji’s potential. If the Islanders maintain their almost European structure, they’ll come off 2nd best but Samoa showed the way with broken field running that carved England open. Fiji to win is the better bet at 13-5 but only because of the price.
Verdict – NO BET
And finally France versus South Africa. This is an exciting and improving Springbok team. They are better than the 2019 World Cup winning vintage but take the hosts to knock them out. I’ll give 3 reasons.
1) Antoine Dupont. If he has made a magical recovery to face the Springboks, the atmosphere within the French camp will sweep them to victory.
2) Antoine Dupont. If he isn’t fit in time, the rest of the squad will not dare to lose for the sake of their potentially all time great leader.
3) The atmosphere. Sitting high in the stands when France cruised home against New Zealand, the intensity of the noise struck me. Against Italy, the underdogs seemed to score when 60-0 behind. The French team pointed to a possible Italian knock on; the crowd saw the protests on the big screen and booed until the referee reversed the decision. Last Saturday, Samoan team made a point regarding subconscious bias against the smaller teams. There’s an equally subconscious bias against the visiting side, especially if you are refereeing amidst the crazed cacophony of Stade du France. Everyone’s visitors when they face France in this World Cup.
It could be tight. If it is, one or two small decisions could have massive consequences. In France’s favour.
Verdict – BACK FRANCE AT 3/4
Other bets – FRANCE TO PLAY IRELAND IN THE FINAL AT 15/2
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