It has been a funny old Six Nations. Ireland, despite their defeat at the hands of England, are the tournament’s outstanding side. It will be a minor miracle if they don’t finish the season off as champions with the erratic Scots visiting Dublin…but then again…it has been quite the rugby roller coaster.
France @ 4/11
Draw @ 20/1
England @ 23/10
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England have been more ambitious in their play but the loss at Murrayfield was a severe setback, not in terms of how they tried to play, but in the appalling inaccuracy of their attacking game. One week later they clicked; the bludgeon of the pack, the precision of the offensive play and the ubiquitous Ben Earl.
They play France in Lyon. It’s a match which merits a Gallic shrug. Does anyone know what is set to happen. The form lines have been useless. As France were – by their standards – until the second half against Wales last week. Suddenly they were all about monstrous power.
The impetus England must surely have gained against Ireland would have made them firm favourites against a France team missing their first choice 9, 10 and 12 were the match at Twickenham.
France may have scored 50 points at Twickenham in 2023, but that was before the crushing failure in the World Cup and their desperate dip in form. Yes, they pummelled Wales in the 2nd half but Wales are 0 for 4 and struggling to convince even themselves.
Before round three I tipped up Tomas Ramos as top points scorer. It all went wrong against Italy and he drifted from 11/8 to out of sight. Then he scored 20 points in Cardiff and is back at the top of the market at 5/4. Which is a roundabout way of saying England need to keep their discipline.
France will be looking for a finale to wipe away the memories of opening night v Ireland in Marseilles. Fabien Galthie now has the right choice of scrum half in Nolann Le Garrec but he’s inexperienced and England will target him. The English counter attack game will force France to think about where they kick in open play.
As for the set piece, the much mentioned bulk of the home pack will test England at the scrum but with Ollie Chessum the shrewdest of switches to blind side and the beefy George Martin in at 2nd row, England can hold their own.
If England play with the same balance, accuracy and determination, they have a great chance against the French behemoths.
21/10 for an away win isn’t a patriotic punt, it is a realistic price….no, it’s a generous price. Tipping England to win in France sort of sums up the madness of the 2024 Six Nations. It was great to watch last week, expect more of the same on Saturday.
Verdict — ENGLAND to beat France @ 21/10
Wales @ 4/11
Draw @ 20/1
Italy @ 23/10
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Wales are at home to Italy. There’s no Grand Slam on the line but Wales could claim a Wooden Spoon with 5 straight losses. Warren Gatland has made development the key word for the campaign, a rebuild towards the next World Cup but there are days when nothing but winning matters. I would suggest Italy at home is such a day.
And Italy, what an improvement in the balance of their game. The backs are still capable but the forwards are much improved. So too is the mood. Kieran Crowley tried to get them playing like New Zealand but forgot to legislate for the Latin mindset. Gonzalo Quesada, the former Argentina fly half and experienced coach in Paris and with the Jaguars in Super Rugby is a good fit as Italy’s coach.
If Italy win in Cardiff, they win my vote as the team of the tournament. Ireland’s back to back Grand Slams would have trumped the Italians but two wins and a draw in France is some going. Can they do it? They did in Cardiff two years ago. The memories are fresh. These young Welsh players know little bar losing. George North bows out after an illustrious career but they won’t sway the game.
Gatland’s team lack heft up front and cutting edge behind. Cam Winnitt and Rio Dyer have done well in defeat but there’s really not anything to frighten Italy. Paolo Garbisi rebounded well from THAT (missed) kick to beat France. He can steer Italy to a famous win.
At 23/10 they are definitely worth a small punt to win outright. Neither would I put you off backing Italy with an 8 point start at evens. Wales are not hugely incisive and Italy will be desperate to do enough to consign some other team to the bottom of the pile.
Verdict — ITALY to beat Wales @ 23/10
Ireland @ 1/10
Draw @ 25/1
Scotland @ 7/1
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I like Ireland giving Scotland 15 points at 10/11. The men in green will be determined to make up for missing out on the Slam. It’s worth reiterating, Ireland were not bad, England were very good.
Scotland are all over the place this campaign. Finn Russell is kicking more than anyone else and with it Scotland are not challenging with ball in hand as much as experts expected.
The team are not getting into good enough positions to show that of which they are capable. We saw glimmers in the first half against Wales and even more in the hulking shape of hat trick hero, Duhan Van der Merwe against England.
Ireland are tactically very cute and won’t let Scotland play in the parts of the pitch in which Scotland and their talismanic ten are comfortable. Ireland should win with something to spare and deservedly win the Six Nations title. They can cover 15 points with something to spare.
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