SIX NATIONS 2024
Three away wins in the first round and the Grand Slam theory that worked for the previous two years falls at the first hurdle. France, with home advantage, were supposed to utilise Marseilles and edge the premature Grand Slam decider against Ireland.
As it was – with a little bit of help from two yellow cards – Ireland trounced France and delivered one of their finest performances of the Andy Farrell era. And that is saying something. We’ll come back to Ireland later but where does that leave France? The answer is with a nasty looking trip to Murrayfield.
Scotland vs France
Scotland @ 17/10
Draw @ 18/1
France @ 8/15
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Scotland have given France some tough games, even through the recent period of French ascendancy, and have a victory in Cardiff to boost their confidence ahead of the weekend’s starter game…
….well, at least theoretically. At 27-0 up against Wales at 42 minutes, Finn Russell and friends were turning the screws on Wales. And then everything changed. The visitors began to concede penalties; Wales finally found a degree of territorial control and Scotland were left hanging on by a single point.
It is an impossible game from which to plot a punt. The pluses were some superb running rugby for 45 minutes and a 1st win in Cardiff in 11 efforts. That should be a psychological boost but the 2nd half can’t have left Gregor Townsend’s boys feeling good.
On paper, the odds on Scotland winning appear generous. 7/4 against a shell shocked French team – in Edinburgh – why not? I cannot tip France to win at 8/15 after the cataclysmic opening Friday but France have class acts and can we really dismiss them after one admittedly dreadful performance? The fact that Maxime Lucu retains his place at scrum half ahead of the excellent Nolann le Garrec is a nervous decision on the part of French manager, Fabien Galthie.
If you have to bet on this game I would say that Scotland are far more value at 7/4 but France will shade it. How about focusing on the last try scorer? It is the theme of this week. The catch and drive line out is a potent weapon. Julien Marchand, the replacement hooker from Toulouse, will be on when the game may tighten. He is an expert scorer from close range and looks great value at 20/1.
I also wouldn’t put anyone off a saver for Damien Penaud to score the last try at 11/1. He’s too classy to keep bottled up and, if France do rediscover their fire, he’ll be popping up in all sorts of attacking positions.
England vs Wales
England @ 1/5
Draw @ 22/1
Wales @ 7/2
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Game two of the weekend is the one in which the majority of fans will be interested. England versus Wales is one of the great rivalries within rugby union. Great rivalry, yes, but what about great teams? England finished 3rd in the World Cup and opened their Six Nations campaign with an away win in Italy (is that any big deal though?) while Wales lost to a team they never lose to in Cardiff, Scotland.
Yet England went to sleep in the final 20 minutes in Rome and Wales were wonderful. Is the losing team heading to Twickenham with the momentum? England have selected an unchanged team and Wales have made seven changes after what Warren Gatland viewed as a match losing first half of ineptitude.
I must admit, sharp as he is around the fringes, scrum half, Gareth Davies doesn’t control or read a game half as well as Tomos Williams. George North’s return adds extra punch in a midfield where Nick Tompkins is never less than an industrious burrower. Italy’s midfield found plenty of space between the English forwards and midfield. Wales may have spotted some space against the rushed but not controlled English defence.
I am glad Steve Borthwick has been cautious in selection. Not because they were impressive in Rome, but because they were creeping away from their one dimensional rugby of the World Cup and need some time to evolve. George Ford didn’t take it to the gain line and looked rusty but the case for starting with the same 15 is a fair one. Tommy Freeman was keen and created a try but England need to get ball in his hands. That should be a priority.
Wales have a poor recent record at Twickenham but I have a hunch the recent deaths of JPR Williams and Barry John will inspire and ignite the red dragons. England….with home advantage, should win but England have to find the currently missing conviction before anyone should be backing them at 2/11. Wales are the underdogs but no way a 4/1 shot. If you are Welsh a small wager at 4s is fair enough but keep it small, England are favourites.
My pick of the punts at Twickenham is to back reserve hooker, Theo Dan, to take the reigns from skipper, Jamie George in the last 25 minutes or so and cross for the last try of the game at 16/1. Hookers are, after all, the new wingers. His counterpart, Ryan Elias, who drops to the bench, is 25-1 to be the final scorer for Wales. Not as mobile as Dan but he and Wales have shown they know their way to the line from short range set pieces.
The final bet from Twickenham is to back Freddie Steward to score at anytime at 7/4. He looked sharper than I have seen him for a while in Rome. He and Freeman can make things happen for others and themselves in the midfield.
Ireland vs Italy
Ireland @ 1/50
Draw @ 40/1
England @ 18/1
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The final game between Ireland and Italy kicks off Sunday. At the time of writing, we have no teams announced but Ireland are obviously impossibly short to support. Scouring through the early shows, the one possible bet to catch my eye was Italy to lead at half time and Ireland full time.
Here’s the logic. It will be hard for Ireland not to be complacent after France. Italy showed enough against England to be able to take advantage of lax defence….they could be three up at half time and lose by 30…it’s 11/1 so only a tiny bet is required if you want some fun. I can see the temptation of the odds but it is a fun bet, not one for profit…and is there any fun in losing even the fewest of quid?
Bet of the weekend
Theo Dan to be last try scorer, England v Wales at 16/1 (minimum stakes for all weekend bets). Good luck and here’s to the return of a little logic!
For all your bets on the Rugby World Cup, visit our dedicated rugby page.
