SIX NATIONS 2025
It’s that time of the year again…where I am accosted for my lack of patriotism. Rugby has always trumped King and country in this particular book….so sorry to the hard core of England fans waiting for what feels like a miracle to come. It would stun me were England to win the title. Three wins seems about right for any assessment based purely upon results.
Ireland v England
First Try Scorer
Caelan Doris @ 11/1
England handicap Plus 3.5 half time @ 4/5
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Ireland are 4/11 to beat Steve Borthwick’s boys on Saturday. Now, I know that 4/11 shots get beaten; indeed that 4/11 winning bets are simply not worth the agony. Flash back to 2009 (I think) Champion Chase, standing alone, high in the Queen Mother’s Stand….the money down on Master Minded.
If he jumped them clear, I thought he was extravagant, wasting energy. If he flicked perfectly through the top of a fence, I held my breath expecting him to fall. A big bet, a decent win, a miserable ten minutes that I have and will not complete. So avoid 4/11….and frankly, stay away from England who are around 5/2.
I’ve just seen Beauden Barrett saying the All Blacks caught Ireland at the `right time,’ Ireland’s first game of the Autumn. In the first game of the 2024 Six Nations they stunned France (minus Antoine Dupont) in Marseilles. Until the New Zealand loss, Ireland had racked up 19 straight home wins….the record stands now at 22 from 23. I’d think twice, maybe thrice before betting against them, against anyone at home. Including the mighty Springboks.
I like the look of the England bench and their trio of impact men in the back row. They have struggled to turn opportunities into wins against the best teams. They have gone some way to addressing the bench and those final 20 minutes which keeps costing them. Certainly, in terms of personnel but in the process, the three open sides selected to start in the back row looks too obvious a plan to scupper Ireland who will have learned after their `breakdown breakdown’ against the All Blacks.
While they were sneaking unconvincing wins against Argentina and Australia, England were losing narrowly to Australia. Knowing how to win counts. That, together with home advantage tells me an optimistic 5/2 against for an England win should be ignored whilst 4/11 should always be avoided bar for the professional high rollers who won’t be taking advice from me….but if you would like to I would recommend a minimum stakes bet on skipper Caelan Doris to be first try scorer at 11/1.
Ireland are my tip for first try scorer but with Marcus Smith growing into a reliable test match boot, I wouldn’t put you off backing England plus 3.5 at 4/5 for half time score. For the Englishman who just HAS to have a patriotic punt.
France v Wales
Antoine Dupont top try scorer @ 5/1
French Grand Slam @ 7/2
France handicap -14.5 at half time @ Evs
France handicap -28 at Full time @ Evs
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So much for the biggest game of the weekend (it won’t be if Italy or Wales win) but Wales are 50/1 in places. That is rude but my friends from west of the Severn have forgotten what winning is. France on a Friday night is no way for a team with a debutant fly half to be blooded. In contrast, the tournament favourites may have lost Damien Penaud (who would have been my tip for top try scorer) for the Wales clash but the Toulouse half backs are back.
Romain Ntmack and Mathieu Jalibert are two superb operators at 10 but all pale into insignificance next to the world’s best player, the French captain, Antoine Dupont. Watching the 2024 tournament back, it was plain to see how badly he was missed. Since he suffered his facial injury which definitely did impact upon him in the World Cup, he has gone from sevens rookie to man of the Olympic final gold medal winner against the incredible Fijians.
He also captained Toulouse to the rare feat of Top 14 (French) and Champions Cup (European) champions. There is nothing he cannot do. The teams he plays for are beginning to revolve ever more around him. There’s my tip at an admittedly skinny 5/1 for the top scorer in the tournament.
France face Ireland in Dublin and England in Twickenham. That stiffens the challenge of winning the tournament, let alone the Grand Slam but they can write off the ignominy of their 13-13 draw with Italy last year and take the Grand Slam. Don’t go crazy but Toulouse, who have half the team, are developing into one of the great teams capable of changing how the game is played. 7/2 is a fair price for a French Grand Slam. I also like France -14.5 at evens for half time and better still -28 at evens for full time.
Scotland v Italy
Italy plus 18 full time @ 19/20
Italy plus 9.5 half time @ 4/5
1st try scorers
Ange Capuozzo @ 10/1
Blair Kinghorn @ 8/1
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Scotland seem to be everyone’s quiet fancy. In Finn Russell they have the most controlled ten in the tournament. They are capable of great spells but equally conducive to a sloppy ten minutes or so. In the last few weeks they have suffered a few injuries. Scotland do not have the strength in depth like France and the loss of their inside centre and skipper, Sione Tuipolutu is a hammer blow. His running lines and rugby nous are impressive. He’s an ideal foil for Russell. Scotland are lessened with his loss.
Meanwhile, Italy quietly improve. Benetton’s qualification for the last 16 in the Champions Cup is testimony to their growth. They are as strong as any side when it comes to first phase moves and their spirit is superb. Last year they missed Ange Cappuozzo for much of the competition. Now he is fit and playing regular first team rugby with Toulouse.
With the strike power Italy possess and the loss of Scotland’s captain an 18 point start might just be generous and I’d quietly recommend Italy on the handicap plus 18 at 19/20 as well as a wager on them plus 9.5 at 4/5 half time.
To keep with the Toulouse theme of earlier Blair Kinghorn at 8/1 and Ange Capuozzo at 10/1 could deliver some more Toulouse magic on weekend one of the Six Nations
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