ATP MADRID
Apr 22th – May 5th
Carlos Alcaraz 23/10
Jannik Sinner @ 5/2
Alexander Zverev @ 15/2
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 10/1
Casper Ruud @ 13/1
Rafa Nadal @ 14/1
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For the next 10 days the greatest showmen and women of the travelling circus that is world tennis will pitch their tents in the Spanish capital; specifically, the appropriately-named Caja Mágica (or Magic Box) sports complex.
The Madrid Open is a sizeable stepping stone on the clay-bricked road that leads to Roland Garros; and a tournament that has developed a reputation for being much more unpredictable than other major tennis events. For one thing, despite being a clay-court tournament, located in Spain; Rafael Nadal has only won it 5 times.
Now, many excellent players would fandango deliriously into the night if they managed to lift a big trophy on so many occasions. But when you consider that the bionic Majorcan has won the Italian Open in Rome 10 times; the Monte Carlo Masters 11 times; the Barcelona Open 12 times; and, of course, the French Open 14 times; it’s clear there is something different in the air in el foro.
In fact, it is precisely the quality of the air that sets Madrid apart – the city’s much higher altitude results in a much lower air pressure. And, as a consequence, the tennis balls move much more quickly – an environment which, in theory, favours forward-moving, attacking players; rather than the big, bludgeoning, behind-the-baseline wallopers.
‘It is precisely the quality of the air that sets Madrid apart.’
This air of unpredictability is compounded by the fact that the men’s game is currently undergoing a significant period of change. The dynasty that has ruthlessly ruled the sport for 20 years is finally coming to an end; and the transition into a new reign is well underway.
Madrid will get to witness the return of the King of Clay, but no-one expects him to add to his paltry 5 titles. A more likely historic scenario is that 2024 is the last time Nadal ever plays the tournament. He was beaten in straight sets by Alex de Minaur in Barcelona last Wednesday, and is set to meet the Australian again in the 2nd round this week.
Speculation, perhaps of a foolish variety, also surrounds fellow Big Three stalwart, Novak Djokovic. No tournament wins so far this year, a waning level of intensity, coach Goran Ivanišević recently dismissed; and the superlative Serb has chosen to eschew this 1000 event altogether. Are we really nearing his endgame too?
Already firmly established as successors, and very well-equipped to provide stability in this interregnum of shifting sands; Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz arrive in Madrid seeded #1 and #2, respectively.
Will the reign in Spain fall on Alcaraz again? The Real Madrid fan will be hoping to complete his own hat-trick of tournament wins in the Iberian capital – a lingering forearm injury, and the presence of Alexander Zverev in his half of the draw represent the biggest obstacles to reaching the final.
For Sinner, the outstanding clay form of Caspar Ruud could make for a daunting quarter-final, and a suddenly resurgent Stefanos Tsitsipas may await in the semis; ahead of a potential final to determine who currently gets to wear the crown in the sport’s new dawn.
A Big Three of sorts currently exists in the women’s division, but its grip on the silverware is not quite as vice-like. Basically, you can be fairly confident that at least one of Iga Świątek, Elena Rybakina, and Aryna Sabalenka will make it to the semi-finals of every major tournament they play. Who gets anointed the winner, however, can still be something of a surprise; there is always hope for an in-form outsider.
Świątek was defeated by Rybakina at the semi-final stage on indoor clay in Stuttgart last week, but finds herself alone in the top half of the draw in Madrid; away from her two biggest rivals. The Pole will be keen to take this opportunity to gild her position at the altitudinous summit of her sport; her reign as World #1 has now reached a landmark 100 weeks.
For all your bets on the Madrid Open, visit our dedicated tennis betting page.
