Jannik Sinner 8/5
Carlos Alcaraz @ 9/5
Novak Djokovic @ 13/5
Hubert Hurcacz @ 14/1
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Aryna Sabalenka @ 14/5
Iga Swiatek @ 17/5
Elena Rybakina @ 9/2
Coco Gauff @ 6/1
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It’s the dawn of Wimbledon 2024. It feels like we’ve been talking about the changing of the guard in men’s tennis for about 5 years. Are we there yet? Might we finish a season Fedalokovic-less in terms of Grand Slam titles for the first time since 2002? 21 years of dominance. Twenty-one.
In July 2003, I was twelve years old. The iPhone was still 4 years away from being invented. I would have spent much of my time playing snake on a Nokia 6310i. The Summer before Ronaldinho had scored that ridiculous free kick against England. Roger Federer had long hair tied up in a bun and fell to his knees as he beat Mark Philippoussis for his maiden slam to set this insane dynasty of sporting greatness and rivalry into motion. And now, has it come to an end?
Well, it’s looking more and more likely.
Two names are paving the way and making it happen. They have shared the first two grand slams of the year between them: Incumbent world number one Jannik Sinner and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz are brilliant co-favourites and would deliver a mouth-watering final should they land on opposite sides of the draw and progress all the way to the second Sunday. Tennis gods, please make it so.
It’s almost impossible to choose between them as to who will win this tournament. Sinner won his first slam down under to kick off an extraordinary season, having claimed a further three titles since then. Just when it was announced that he would become the world number one, the first Italian in history to do so, Alcaraz beat him in the semis at Roland Garros in five gruelling sets. These two are neck and neck.
They are no longer the next gen, these two are this generation in men’s tennis, here and now. Alcaraz said of Sinner, prior to their French Open clash, ‘I think he’s the best player in the world’ and then beat him. #humblealcaraz or gamesmanship?
On the grass, Sinner has lost only to Djokovic in his last two Wimbledon outings, and Alcaraz managed to beat the all-conquering Serb in a topsy turvy final last year, which happened to be the first time Novak lost on that court in a decade. Sinner just won in Halle whereas Carlos lost to Jack Draper in the second round at Queens. Despite their evident closeness in level, my head says Sinner, and my heart says Sinner, even my wallet might say Sinner by Monday. Don’t really know why. They both play fearlessly, with the same devastating level of intensity and passion for the game. It just feels like his time.
For those more interested in backing ‘the field’, despite making it to the end of June without a trophy for the first time since 2006 (the iPhone had nearly arrived by then) globally certified GOAT Novak Djokovic is still 3rd in the betting at 4/1. It would take something Herculean for a meniscus injury which caused a Djokovic withdrawal from his French Open quarter final and surgery earlier this month to last seven matches, but if anyone can do it, of course it’s him. Best of the rest might include big serving Hubert Hurkacz and 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini. Queen’s champion earlier in the week Tommy Paul makes for an intriguing proposition at 50/1.
On the ladies side picking likely finalists is more challenging. French Open champion for the fourth time in five years, Iga Swiatek has yet to manage the same consistency on the grass at SW19 as on the clay. Aryna Sabalenka is favourite at 14/5, despite announcing she will skip the Paris Olympics to focus on her health, and Ons Jabeur has had troubles with injury too.
If Aryna plays at her best though, she has a fantastic chance of winning. You could also make an argument for one of the leading pack from the USA: Danielle Collins is retiring at the end of the season, but could easily go out on a high having played much of the best tennis in her career this year, amassing two titles in the process.
Jessica Pegula broke her QF/SF curse and won a tournament for the first time in a long old while on the grass in Berlin, so will be feeling confident she can go deep.
Coco Gauff is best of all. She has a US Open title to her name and will fear no one. We have seen her grow from cub to lion in recent years, a Symba who has finally and fully realised they are a Mufasa in the making (or the Nala equivalent). She is reaching her potential impressively and roaring loudly.
On the domestic front British hopes are slim but certainly not zero when you consider our national number one Jack Draper had that win over Alcaraz at Queens and won a grass court tournament the week before in Stuttgart, he’s @ 20/1.
If you fancy Emma Raducanu to repeat her phenomenal run from a covid hit Flushing Meadows in 2021 and lift the Venus Rosewater dish, it’s 28/1. Katie Boulter is in form having won 5 matches and the tournament in Nottingham. With the Wimbledon crowd passionately behind her she is a very decent price @ 50/1.
Cam Norrie has dropped to number 44 in the world and is 100/1 to go two better than his semi final loss to Djokovic two years ago and win the Gent’s singles. Go on Cam bring it home.
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