REAL MADRID vs MAN CITY
Tuesday 9th April, 8:00pm
Real Madrid @ 17/10
Draw @ 12/5
Man City @ 11/8
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The most exciting Premier League title race in a generation has an added layer of intrigue this season because two of the protagonists are not only involved in glamorous Champions League quarter-finals ties but could also then meet in the last four.
This is what makes the challenge ahead for both Arsenal and Manchester City so fascinating. Taking the holders first and that they’re now course and distance winners in the European Cup cannot be underestimated when it comes to their self-belief as they head to Real Madrid on Wednesday.
Two years ago my flabber was as gasted as everyone else’s inside the Bernabeu when City did a Devon Loch in the semi finals when in complete control but twelve months ago at the same stage they showed they’d learnt that painful lesson and they pulverised Real at the Etihad, their first half performance amongst the most complete European football has ever seen.
So City know they can beat Real, they know they can now win the Champions League and with a lightly raced Kevin de Bruyne – he’s only started 8 league matches this season – looking in great form at the weekend, Pep Guardiola has his match winners available just when he needs them.
Phil Foden has been in magnificent form playing as a number ten but with the Belgian superstar back, the England man could be shifted to flank Erling Haaland alongside Jack Grealish, who looked like he had some ginger in him at long last at Selhurst Park.
Real have got issues in defence with ‘keeper Thibout Courtois and defender David Alaba both out for the season and Eder Militao just coming back from injury but a midfield of Kroos, Camavinga, Valverde and Jude Bellingham covers every canvass in the colours of the rainbow – goals, experience, nous, legs and technical expertise. And Vinicius Junior’s speed at Wembley in a Brazil shirt was enough to make even Kyle Walker’s hamstrings twang and he’ll miss out as a result. Rico Lewis better be sleeping well.
Real will almost certainly win La Liga, City are in the ultimate dogfight in the Premier League and chasing another Treble but Pep Guardiola can draw deeply on one of his famous cigars safe in the knowledge his team have been at this base camp before and scaled the summit. They should be two electrifying games and I put the tie genuinely at 50-50.
ARSENAL vs BAYERN
Tuesday 9th April, 8:00pm
Arsenal @ 8/11
Draw @ 14/5
Bayern @ 10/3
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The winner will play the victors of the Arsenal-Bayern Munich tie in the semi-finals. The Germans have all the European heritage and trophies, and have won their last three meetings 5-1 on every occasion, but as ABC sung four decades ago “That Was Then But This is Now.”
Arsenal are the form team in England, their confidence is sky high, their defence is parsimony personified and no Bayern fans are allowed into Arsenal after they threw fireworks onto the pitch against Lazio.
It’s fashionable and lazy to deride The Emirates as a library but it was noisy and passionate against Porto and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. The Arsenal fans recognise Mikel Arteta has, in three seasons, taken their club from the backwaters (for them…) of eighth in the league and no European football to dining at the continent’s top table and genuinely challenging for the title. Their throats will be well lubricated.
The most impressive thing about Arsenal’s win over Porto in the round of 16 was their patience. Roy Keane is often saying in the studio, “you have to find a way to win,” and they did just that. If it takes penalties, then so be it.
Harry Kane is the obvious threat and he has 14 goals in 19 appearances against his old enemy, half of them penalties, but instead of the well calibrated machine that regularly motored to the Bundesliga title, this Bayern iteration resembles more an international team at a World Cup – excellent players undoubtedly but hoping their match winners can inspire rather than the structure and DNA of the team being the winning strong point.
Arsenal are much better without the ball, and in Gabriel and Saliba have centre halves to envy – but they need to stay fit. Witness their collapse twelve months ago when the Frenchmen was injured in a Europa League tie.
Bayern had a fistful of players, including the experienced keeper Manuel Neuer, train on Monday after missing at the weekend when they gave up a 2 goal lead against Hedenheim but Arsenal will never have a better chance to beat the Bavarians.
A first leg lead, carefully crafted, is the least we should expect of the Premier League leaders. Manchester City can juggle the demands of the competing competitors. Time to peer deep into Arsenal’s soul and see if they can do the same.
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