While Masters favourites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy didn’t conquer Houston both will be happy enough with their final competitive warm-ups for Augusta in finishing T2 and T5 behind 28/1 winner Min Woo Lee. They are ready to go!
With a better start McIlroy would probably have won but gave himself too much to do; Scheffler will have been pleased to see more putts going in the hole in what was his sixth straight defeat – but best finish – since coming back from a Christmas Day hand injury. If you are backing either superstar, don’t panic. Rory does have a sore elbow but that will soon pass.
The long overdue US breakthrough by the immensely talented and charismatic Min Woo – just the sort of star the game needs – was yet another blow to American morale as the 26-year-old Aussie was the tenth overseas player to win on the PGA Tour (out of 14) and the year is only three months old.
None of that trio is in action this week when the tour stays in the Lone Star State but shifts 200 miles west from Houston to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open, the last-chance saloon for those not qualified for the Masters to get a tee-off time at next week’s eagerly-awaited first Major. Watch this space for some surprise picks!
The trouble with the Masters is that not everyone capable of winning it gets the opportunity to do so. Unlike the other Majors it has a limited field of qualifiers and those, like Joaquin Niemann and Nicolai Hojgaard, who get an invitation. Yet it is still the most loved of the four Majors.
At the moment there are 96 on the list, the winner at San Antonio making it 97 if he’s not already in. High-profile names Rickie Fowler and 2019 US Open champion Gary Woodland, just a shot away from getting into a playoff with Min Woo Lee at the Houston Open, need to be that winner because they are still on the outside looking in.
It would be some fairytale if Woodland were to win on the Oaks course to gain that final place and go on to Augusta glory as it is only 18 months since he had a tumour removed from his brain. That T2 alongside favourite Scottie Scheffler was his first top-five since September 2022.
The greying 40-year-old has not won since that US Open triumph at Pebble Beach almost six years ago but a flying last round of 62 on Sunday has got his juices flowing again and if he is not too exhausted to do himself justice, he could be big value as he had excellent San Antonio form before he got sick – sixth in 2021, fifth the following year.
With even better course credentials is Canadian Corey Conners, a huge talent good enough to have won more than twice, yet both those victories have come in San Antonio, in 2019 and 2023. And just look at the run he’s been on this year: opening with fifth at Kapalua this straight driver has reeled off third at the Palmer, sixth at the Players and sixth again at the Valspar. He’s one of the favourites but it’s a worry he struggles to finish the job off
Aberg is tasked with giving Europe yet another boost in Ryder Cup year. Having already opened his 2025 account, arguably the most talented golfer in the field heads the market. The Genesis winner – and runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in last year’s Masters – will have every chance of going one better at Augusta next week but at the prices I’d sooner be with last year’s winner Akshay Bhatia who was six clear going into the final round and had to withstand a stunning birdie charge from Denny McCarthy before coming out on top. In the end he had to birdie the 72nd to get into a playoff but held his nerve even though handicapped by his shoulder popping out.
Only 23, he is clearly very happy on this tight tree-lined 7435-yard test (designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia and opened in 2010) as he and McCarthy finished nine big shots ahead of the best of the rest of the toiling field. His 2025 form impresses too, two top-tens preceding a standout third place at Sawgrass.
Tommy Fleetwood, T7 a year ago, has been a model of consistency but there’s only top-ten there in six outings (one in Dubai) and the Englishman looks underpriced. Hideki Matsuyama rates better value as his 35 under at Kapalua was nothing short of sensational. After years of niggling health problems, the Japanese superstar is, touch wood, pain free. He tied seventh with Fleetwood last year but is expected to improve on that.
Sam Stevens, a one-shot runner-up to Conners two years ago, filled the same position at Torrey Pines in January and this steady operator could spring a surprise in his home state. Still a tour maiden, he arrives on the back of a top-20 in Houston and is a winner waiting to happen, if not this week then later this year.
Another Texan, Jordan Spieth, is box office and a course winner. He took the 2021 edition, was a decent T10 last year and will have massive local support. But the Masters – he won it in 2017 – is his prime objective.
I’m a great believer in inspiration by association and, on that basis, the best outsider could be old Charley Hoffman. His record, one win and two second places between 2016 and 2021, shows he plays this course better than any and, although 48 now, he still retains enough ability to place top five at the AmEx in January.
Weatherwise it’s going to be a strange week, starting hot and humid (up to 35C) and tapering off to a refreshing 19 by Sunday.
With the 13 best of LIV’s task force bound for Augusta next week, you will arguably get more Masters clues from their Miami tournament than from the clashing Texas Open on the PGA circuit.
And it will be interesting to see the viewing figures for both, with the LIV action now available free-to-air not only on their own channel but also on ITVx. From Friday do we watch Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau crunching it around the famed Blue Monster at Doral or Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood doing battle in San Antonio? Or keep track of both with some nifty use of the remote?
Miami’s shotgun start tees off at 5.15pm our time and it won’t be a fast round if they play it from the tips (7701 yards) – but they won’t as the crowd want birdies to go with the loud music and party razzmatazz that make up the total LIV experience.
With 14 holes involving lakes and water hazards, it’s not called the Blue Monster for nothing and there’s a par five, the 12th, that’s 670 yards – “it’s a big boys’ course” says five-time Major champion Brooks Koepka, “definitely suits length” adds last year’s winner Dean Burmester, “you have to be on your game pretty well every hole” echoes DeChambeau.
Shrewd owner Donald Trump, realising the resort was a magnet for well-heeled macho 12-handicap tourists thinking they could break 90, brought in Gil Hanse for a 2014 redesign that made it even longer, with bigger bunkering and a lot more water. It is not for the faint-hearted but, again, not as fearsome as it is often painted.
Unlike Augusta, it’s flat and an easy-walking course as I discovered when I visited back in 2004 when Craig Parry won by holing a 6-iron from the middle of the 18th fairway to win his playoff with Scott Verplank, the most spectacular finish to a tournament imaginable.
They were two of the shortest hitters in the field but the course was not as long or as tough in those days. More relevant to solving this week’s 54-hole puzzle is last year’s LIV result. Burmester, playoff winner over Sergio Garcia, hits it a country mile, third-placed Matt Wolff hits it even further and fourth-home Jon Rahm is no slouch either.
Conversely, when the LIV team championship was played there in 2023, the best individual scores were returned by Carlos Ortiz and Anirban Lahiri, renowned for finesse rather power. So make of that what you will.
Rahm, Garcia, Joaquin Niemann and Tyrrell Hatton will all want to go to Augusta on a high note as they have realistic chances of donning that Green Jacket, Rahm and Garcia having already done so once.
Given that Garcia has already shown a clean pair of heels to his LIV rivals once this year, is anxious to press his Ryder Cup claims and went so close at Doral last year when not in the confident, carefree state of mind he is exuding this campaign, he’s the main bet on a course that rewards strategy as well as power. Sergio has both.
Compatriot Rahm never strays out of the top ten but needs a timely W to give him that extra confidence for next week’s assault on Scheffler and McIlroy.
He’s a place banker and Niemann third best in a week when the main protagonists will have half an eye on Magnolia Drive.
Expect DeChambeau, Koepka (second to Niemann last month), long hitter David Puig and Burmester to be bang in the mix too in a fascinating hors-d’oeuvre to next week’s main event.
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