Best bets
2.5pts each-way Ludvig Aberg @ 12/1
1pt each-way Maverick McNealy @ 40/1
1pt each-way Shane Lowry @ 33/1
0.5pt each-way Russell Henley @ 33/1
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Golf punters are tearing out what was left of their hair after a pair of insane results at the weekend tested their sanity and their pockets. Can world No.1 Scottie Scheffler, the super-popular Rory McIlroy or rising superstar Ludvig Aberg ride to their rescue in this week’s $20m showcase, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, at Arnie’s old Florida stamping ground, Bay Hill?
If anyone had done the double of Dylan Naidoo at 275/1 for the South African Open in Durban, and Joe Highsmith at 100/1 for the Cognizant Classic in Florida, they’d be looking at the thick end of a 27,600/1 payout. But of course nobody did. In truth, few punters will ever have heard of either of them.
We thought the unknown Brian Campbell winning in Mexico and serial loser Jacques Kruyswijk finally knocking one off in Kenya the previous weekend was bad enough but the latest carnage was far, far worse.
Will sanity to golf punting be restored at Arnie’s Place in Orlando where Tiger Woods won eight times between 2000 and 2013? There’s no Woods there this week but the creme de la creme of world golf is with the exception of the barred LIV stars who in any case have a tournament of their own in Hong Kong and big-name non-exempt Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler.
At last Xander Schauffele, last year’s double Major winner, is back, the torn inter-costal stomach muscles that have kept him out since he aggravated the problem by turning out for the season opener at Kapalua in the first week of the year. That’s a long time out of competitive golf and a watching brief is advised.
After three somewhat disappointing outings (9-25-3) since recovering from the hand injury he suffered from a broken glass on Christmas Day, near-namesake Scheffler is now ready to rock and roll as defending champion. With two Bay Hill wins and a fourth in the last three years, he has the best record in the elite line-up and is the best golfer.
Do I think he will win? Yes! Am I going to back him at 3/1? No – but don’t let me put you off. With seven PGA Tour victories, an Olympic gold and victory in the unofficial Hero World Challenge last campaign, the Texan is (usually) Mr Reliable. Both driver and putter were less than reliable at the Genesis last time out though and he gave himself just too much to do.
Last year he fought his way into a share of the 54-hole lead with Shane Lowry at Bay Hill and played with such Sunday brilliance he simply left everyone else for dead. It was his first W in almost a year. It opened the floodgates to an annus mirabilis the rest could only dream about, playing with the ball and distance control we had not seen the like of since Tiger’s heyday.
No excuses either for McIlroy, who is a course winner back in 2018 and runner-up to 2023 shocker Kurt Kitayama. After the brilliance of Pebble Beach, he was back to some of his bad old ways when T17 at Torrey Pines where his driving left much to be desired and his putting in round three was the worst in the field. Bay Hill, at 7466 yards par 72, is one of the toughest on the circuit and he will need to sharpen up if he is don the winner’s red cardigan on Sunday.
Ludvig Aberg, fresh from a spectacular last-time-out victory, pulling out the birdies in the nick of time to foil Maverick McNealy, could easily click again. His long, straight driving is a thing of beauty, he played nicely for T25 on first sight of Bay Hill last year and might well have won the Farmers in January but for the mystery stomach illness that floored him after an opening 63. He looked as white as a sheet after that and barely completed the tournament.
Before Torrey he’d toured the final 36 at Kapalua in 129 for fifth place after a slow start and the only thing that worries me is he’s not the greatest short putter in the world. But then neither is Scottie or Rory.
With Collin Morikawa’s two 17th places at Pebble and Torrey not looking good enough despite the fact that his accuracy off the tee and fine iron play makes him an ideal fit for the course and Patrick Cantlay lurking but looking unreliable under pressure, my other three to note are McNealy, Shane Lowry and Russell Henley.
McNealy arrived on the pro scene with a big reputation and has always looked a class act but confidence was missing until his belated breakthrough on his final 2024 start at Sea Island. With that monkey off his back, he has come out in 2025 like a lion with top-tens at Kapalua and Phoenix and that agonising near-miss at the Genesis.
Lowry let us down a bit last week but 11the place was still a strong showing and a good follow-up to his second to Rory at Pebble Beach, the Irishman was great for three days at Bay Hill last time (third despite a bogey-riddled final round) so don’t give up on him.
Sixth place at the Cognizant was Russell Henley’s third top ten out of five. Looking at that and his T4 here last year and a run for your money looks guaranteed with this persistent performer. Only 71 to beat and there’s a halfway cut with 50+ survivors. There’s bad weather around this part of Florida but the early-week downpours should have given way to sunshine by Thursday. Sunny until Sunday when there may be more showers.
Best bets
1.5pts each-way Darren Fichardt @ 60/1
1pt each-way Jayden Schaper @ 16/1
1pt each-way Sam Bairstow @ 28/1
1pt each-way Dan Brown @ 28/1
0.5pt each-way Dan Bradbury @ 33/1
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Yet another bodyblow for punters as big outsider Dylan Naidoo became the seventh consecutive home-grown winner of the South African Open. We said it would be a South African but picked the wrong one!
To rub salt into the wound, the local hero defeated one of our picks, Laurie Canter, in a playoff forced upon the organisers by a torrential deluge that made Durban Country Club unplayable. With no guarantee it would recover by Monday, the DP World Tour decided to scrub the final round, settle the placings on the 54-hole scores while sending Naidoo and Canter, the overnight co-leaders, out for a sudden-death shootout on a hole which was playable.
The 26-year-old from Johannesburg settled it quickly with a birdie for a breakthrough victory that certainly had the bookies chirping. It qualified him for the Open too and opens other doors for the young man whose only noteworthy DPWT performance was as runner-up to John Parry at the Mauritius Open before Christmas.
For those who had backed players right behind the front two and were counting on their selection overhauling the joint leaders, there was nothing to chirp about: they‘d lost the win part of the wager without a ball being struck. But we go again this week with the action moving up-country to the Houghton club for the long-established Joburg Open, won when last played in November 2023 by Dean Burmester who can’t defend because he’s needed for LIV duty in Hong Kong where the money, $20m, is decidedly more appealing even if they’d given him the choice.
It’s Joburg’s bad luck that the LIV trio from Durban – Burmester, Charl Schwartzel and Branden Grace – are required elsewhere but, in theory, that makes the task easier for those who played well last week, Naidoo, Canter, Shaun Norris, Darren Fichardt, Marco Penge, Jayden Schaper and others.
At 7153 yards with a par of 70, Houghton is a bit longer but a tad less demanding than glorious Durban – it’s a strategic, undulating test dotted with ponds and dams and thickly tree-lined. Jack Nicklaus revamped the original which dates back to 1926. It has a rich pedigree, having first hosted the SA Open in 1951 and eight more since, as well as an Alfred Dunhill Championship and this week’s event for the past two editions.
The first was won wire to wire by Englishman Dan Bradbury who made an excellent defence 15 months ago when third to Burmester but done little since. One for horses-for-courses punters. Now the tournament has a new date, switched from November to March. But though Bradbury, Sam Bairstow and Dale Whitnell, sixth in 2022 and rare scorer of two holes in one and the same round when T7 in Durban, are respected.
Bairstow led the SA Open at one stage on Saturday but crumbled rather alarmingly to finish T9. He is generally in better form than most of the opposition and still rates an each-way punt although this was not the first time he has flattered to deceive. He is a winner in waiting.
The same goes for Schaper, another nearly man with plenty of talent. He was ninth at Houghton last time and showed enough when 16th on Sunday following up from top fives in Qatar and Kenya to suggest he can improve on that.
Like many South Africans, he’s happiest playing at home.
One who has done it, been there, got the T-shirt is Fichardt, champion in 2017 (different course) and Joburg runner-up last time. This canny old operator is fresh from a T4 in Durban. Even at 49 he’s a difficult man to beat on tracks that suit him. Houghton, a thinker’s course, comes into that category.
Jordan Smith and Johannes Veerman are close behind Schaper in an open market but I’m not convinced either is at the top of his game and preference is for solid Dan Brown who has shone in far better company. The bearded Yorkshireman is nicely rested after tenth in Qatar and second in Bahrain and was a decent 17th on his last visit to Houghton.
The dreadful weather which hit Durban last weekend is thankfully not heading to Houghton where four dry, if cloudy days are forecast after early-week showers so every chance of a winning score in the vicinity of Burmester’s 21 under 15 months ago.
Best bets
2pts each-way Ben Campbell @ 40/1
2pts each-way Abraham Ancer @ 18/1
2pts win Joaquin Niemann @ 13/2
2pts Ancer @ 19/20 to beat David Puig
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Never confuse short with easy. LIV’s golf stars tackle the shortest course on their 14-tournament roster in Hong Kong this weekend. Fiddly Fanling at just 6710 yards will test the best. As one of the best, former Open champion Cameron Smith, says: “It’s a smart person’s golf course”.
Another major winner, Patrick Reed, shot a 59 there in November on the way to Hong Kong Open glory in an Asian Tour event, adds: “I love the way it makes you think. You have to be creative.”
With a number of doglegs, old Fanling – it’s been around since 1889 – requires shrewd club selection and shot-shaping. There’s no advantage in being a bomber. A look at past Hong Kong Open winners there like Wade Ormsby, Aaron Rai, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Ian Poulter tells you the type who relishes this specialists’ track. Although Rory McIlroy has won there, he’s also been beaten by plodders not in his class.
You can’t see LIV’s multi-millionaires Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson or Brooks Koepka feeling comfortable there. Even Jon Rahm, never out of the top ten since signing for LIV, will feel frustrated.
When LIV made its Hong Kong debut 12 months ago, it was cute players like Abraham Ancer and Cammie Smith who prospered most, Ancer winning a three-way playoff with Smith and Paul Casey. Right behind came another shot-maker in Joaquin Niemann who is the man everyone has to beat. A prolific winner and a dark horse for the Masters where he’s been 12th and 16th the last twice, the slim Chilean is at the peak of his powers at 26 when many of his rivals have seen better days.
Mexico’s Ancer looked for all the world like winning LIV Adelaide last time out but got mugged by Niemann on the run-in. His lack of power is not a problem at Fanling.
Ancer is one of four course winners in this 54-hole, shotgun-start circus which tees off at 4.15am our time on Friday. The others: Reed, Poulter and Ben Campbell, a 33-year-old LIV recruit from New Zealand not to be confused with Brian Campbell, the recent shock winner on the PGA Tour.
This Campbell adores Fanling. Why shouldn’t he? Two of his best results have come there on the Asian Tour – Hong Kong Open champion in 2023 and runner-up to the flying Reed in the same event last year. The opposition was not as strong as he faces now but each time he shot 19 under par. A repeat of that would surely at least put him in the frame and make 40/1 a stonking each-way bet.
Reed, so brilliant at Fanling three months ago, would be a snip at 28/1 if you can forgive his first two LIV efforts this year, out with the washing in Riyadh and Adelaide. His short game does not seem as secure as it used to be. Smith has also been disappointing this campaign and let his army of Aussie fans down badly when only 30th last time.
Not a great week for weather – plenty of rain for the first two days, little sign of sunshine and pretty windy. Should be fun!
Best bets
2pts each-way Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen @ 28/1
1pt each-way Brice Garnett @ 33/1
1pt each-way Adrien Dumont de Chassart @ 40/1
1pt each-way Taylor Montgomery @ 66/1
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While the big boys chase the big bucks at Bay Hill, the leftovers travel to Puerto Rico for gainful employment. It may only be a $4m pot but even a small-beer victory opens doors and the competition at Rio Grande will be every bit as intense as Orlando.
Brice Garnett, 41 now, has a decent chance of a successful defence on this long but generous 7506-yard par 72. Looking at his last four performances, 48-30-34-67, you wouldn’t rate him but he’s 34 under par for that stretch which makes it sound much better. As he was also T5 in 2021, he tees off with great course vibes.
For three rounds Taylor Montgomery putted the eyes out of PGA National last week and although he faded away on Sunday, he’s a big talent lacking only self-belief and should feel more at home with this drop in class. A third American, Hayden Springer, did well here last year (T3) and started this campaign brightly with sixth at Torrey Pines but there are DP World Tour regulars to consider too.
Belgium’s Adrien Dumont de Chassart, only two shots short of a playoff last time, went on to be third in Bermuda and started 2025 with an eyecatching top-ten in Qatar while Denmark’s Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen has been peppering leaderboards ever since graduating to the main tour with three wins and was runner-up to Haotong Li in Qatar. He’s some prospect and will only get better.
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