France @ 5/4
Ireland @ 7/4
England @ 6/1
Scotland @ 6/1
Wales @ 50/1
Italy @ 1000/1
view odds
Were Wales absolutely awful or Ireland outstanding? And what about the events in Edinburgh? Scotland travel to Cardiff in high expectations after another win against England. Ditto the first question. Are Scotland potentially superb or was a narrow home win against a ragged England team a sign of a team set to struggle, especially away from Murrayfield?
Wales meet Scotland first up this weekend. Neither Ireland nor England will have offered any form lines. So what do we know? Well, Wales will almost certainly be better in Cardiff than they were in Dublin. Forget the opposition, the stadium is at least a seven point lift for Wales. I keep reading that Scotland have a terrible record in Cardiff. In the Six Nations the record stands 9-1 to Wales this century; ah but there again Scotland won the last Six Nations fixture in Wales, albeit it was staged in Llanelli.
Gregor Townsend will use the fact to counter Wales `winning’ record at home. At the time of writing, Scotland are 4/6 favourites. It’s tight enough, given home advantage has to be worth between a 5 and 10 point start. If that swings the verdict away from Scotland, selection sways it back in the visitors favour. The decision to start Sione Tuipulotu in the midfield strengthens Scotland on the gain line.
The hard running Glasgow centre can thrive off Finn Russell’s ability to play what’s in front of him as late as possible. Wales had problems with the bewildering nature of the Irish midfield. They could find the resurgent power of the Scotland midfield equally difficult. It could well be a very smart move to have made the complete change in the front row.
Wales scrummage was the best part of their game in Dublin. Starting the less mobile South African props will not add so much around the field but it will stabilise a set piece and if Scotland gain parity up front, they have the guile and firepower behind to win this game, even with the Millennium Stadium factored into the equation. 4-6 is my main recommendation while a handicap of -3 is within Scottish powers at 19-20.
The main course comes later Saturday afternoon. France v Ireland is most definitely NOT the title decider but whoever wins will have taken a major step towards a potential Grand Slam. France and Ireland both beat the All Blacks but it was Ireland who maintained momentum last weekend. They have won 9 straight games but the headline news is the absence of Jonny Sexton. He has been in sparkling form for Ireland but Joey Carbery performed with assurance against Argentina and has always looked the part coming off the bench. The injury is a blow but not the end of Ireland’s hopes.
France are 4-9 favourites. They have a home crowd right behind them and some world class players. They didn’t need to get out of 3rd gear against Italy. Expect a different performance in what should be the game of the tournament. Antoine Dupont will be in overdrive and Cameron Woki leaping all over the Parisian sky. Whether Ireland can keep this pair in check will go a long way to deciding the fate of the game.
Ireland have a decent record of late in Paris. I think venue edges this one France’s way but there’s little appeal in backing France at such skinny prices against such a fine team. For those of you who have backed them at 100-30 to win the Grand Slam, stick with the bet and enjoy what should be a fabulous game of rugby.
For a little punting interest, the prolific try scoring run of Damien Penaud makes him the man to back as first try scorer at …….while Gary Ringrose is an in form Irish alternative at…..
A key tactical issue; how France adapt to the loss of Jonathan Danty at inside centre could be crucial with 21 year old Yoram Maefano an experienced but exciting replacement. Inside centre is an area of great interest on Saturday.
From the tension of Saturday to the expectation of a one sided match in Rome. Italy have never beaten England and, no matter what the state of this radically changed England team, they are massive odds not to do so again.
Italy have a 25 point handicap start at 19/20 with Fitzdares. Victory would be one of the greatest shocks in Five or Six Nations history. Yet Italy were arguably the biggest improving nation from an unconvincing Autumn to a determined first half against France. It was only late in the half that France scored a superb try to supply breathing space at 18-10. There is no other team in the tournament with the balance of back line brilliance to create Gabin Villiere’s first try.
The second half was inevitably one sided but remember France were at home and playing with far more confidence than England. And France won – in rotten conditions admittedly – by 27 points. England, under a degree of pressure and away from home are asked to give a 25 point start.
In Paolo Garbisi Italy have an extremely composed fly half. He made their solitary try on Sunday and kicked his penalties with assurance. The Montpellier man will take most chances that come his way. England were well disciplined in Edinburgh but with the expectations weighing on them, it isn’t entirely impossible that Tom Curry and company will be twitchy early on and present scoring opportunities to Garbisi.
Who knows, Italy may even make it to half time with a lead before the weakness in their squad depth sees England eventually pull away. At 7-1, Italy to lead at half time is worth a small punt.
Weekend best bets
Scotland to win @ 4/6
Scotland -3 to win @ 19/20
Damien Penaud first try scorer @ 10/1
Gary Ringrose first try scorer @ 20/1
Italy to lead half time @ 7/1
Italy plus 25 @ 19/20
