Best bets
They have one Major apiece – Rory the Masters, Scottie the USPGA – plus the Players and Pebble Beach in the McIlroy column and the CJ Cup and Memorial on Scheffler’s side of the ledger. The one notable difference is the huge margin of the Scheffler victories, by eight, five and four shots, whereas McIlroy required extra time to land the Players and Masters.
Can Rory put his nose back in front at the Canadian Open this week before the Big Two renew hostilities at the US Open? What a golden year this is turning out to be and such a crying shame that LIV giants Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm are barred from joining the fun except for the Majors.
McIlroy has already won two Canadian Opens, but the waters are muddied as far as course form is concerned as it is a new one this year, the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, the 38th venue in the tournament’s 114-year history. This is a 7389-yard par 71 designed by Doug Carrick in 1992 inspired by a visit to Portmarnock and renovated in 2023.
Just as the great Nicklaus said at the weekend that Scheffler was in a different class to the rivals presented to him at Muirfield Village and would play even better when the opposition was more worthy, so it is with McIlroy in Canada, only more so because he does not have so many of the next wave facing him, no Schauffele, no Morikawa, no Cantlay, no Matsuyama, no Straka, no Fleetwood. Rory at his best versus the rest? It should be straightforward even if the Northern Irishman tends to make it difficult for himself.
The betting says Ludvig Aberg is his chief rival, yet the young Swede has been far from his best since finishing seventh to Rory at the Masters. Next in the betting is the big home hope Corey Conners, classy and wonderfully consistent but a man who doesn’t know how to win.
In the same boat is McIlroy’s bosom buddy Shane Lowry, playing super golf tee to green but falling short time and again at the business end.
He could still give McIlroy trouble as he did at Pebble Beach but the man least likely to stall if he gets into a battle is the defending champion Bob MacIntyre who has such an emotional attachment to the Canadian Open as he had his dad caddying for him for last year’s breakthrough triumph and he had the beating of McIlroy in last year’s Scottish Open too.
Sixth at Colonial and 20th at Memorial, ‘Bobby Mac’ has a game that is trending the right way and at 28/1 can push the favourite all the way.
Pick of the Americans could be Sam Burns who has had some tough months but is starting to emerge as the serious threat he used to be. A bunch of prominent performances include a fifth at the CJ Cup, 13th at Heritage, 19th at the PGA and 12th at Memorial.
The Canadians are mob-handed but rarely figure in their national Open. Nick Taylor ended a 69-year Canada drought when he sank that huge eagle putt in the 2023 playoff to beat Tommy Fleetwood just when we thought our Tommy was finally going to get his first PGA Tour victory. Taylor played a blinder for fourth at Memorial last week and if that testing course has not exhausted him, he could well pip Conners for Top Canadian honours.
It could be a big week for the European contingent who have already struck eight times on the PGA Tour and the year is only five months old. Not only McIlroy, MacIntyre, Aberg and Lowry but the Hojgaard twins, Thomas Detry and Alex Noren shouldn’t be far away either.
Heavy early-week rain should soften the course for a cloudy but dry weekend.
If there are any DP World Tour punters left after a seemingly unending series of hammer blows, the 150/1 victory of unheralded Nicolai Von Dellingshausen in the Austrian Open could have been the final straw that broke the camel’s back.
In a catalogue of disaster starting with Elvis Smylie winning the Aussie PGA, we have watched glassy eyed as Ryggs Johnston, Shaun Norris, Alejandro del Rey, Jacques Kruyswijk, Dean Naidoo, Calum Hill, Marco Penge, Martin Couvra, Kristoffer Reitan and now the redoubtable Herr Von Dellingshausen, one after the other and none of them household names outside their own front doors, have pulled off victories that have been almost impossible to explain away.
With only one top-20 to his name all year, you could say the 32-year-old German was able to raise his game because he was close to home, had lots of fan support and felt comfortable playing with a good friend, Marcel Schneider, for both weekend rounds. That might also partly explain why Schneider was able to produce a personal best in finishing T2. But it was a real head-shaker.
We’ll see if that ‘home comfort’ theory holds water this week when another neighbour, Holland, stages the KLM Open at The International club in Amsterdam. Both Von Dellingshausen and Schneider go again in a field similar to last week and the locals will be cheering on home stars Joost Luiten and Darius Van Driel. As a two-time Dutch champion, though not on this week’s course, veteran Luiten is of particular interest. There have only been two Opens at The International and Luiten has finished tenth and 15th in tournaments won by Sergio Garcia and Guido Migliozzi on this 6914-yard par 71.
Although a little past his best, this six-time winner still has plenty going for him. If you forgive last week’s missed cut, he’s been in decent form with a third in India, fifth in Turkey, 14th in China and 16th in Belgium. Luiten should be in the mix again, but preference is for two Englishmen who took last week off to arrive fresh and raring to go.
Sheffield left-hander Sam Bairstow is cock-a-hoop at earning a place in next week’s US Open by placing fifth in last week’s qualifying competition at Walton Heath and a first victory cannot be far away for the 26-year-old ex-amateur star who was seventh in Turkey, eighth at Hainan and 16th in Antwerp.
Canter was punching above his weight when missing the cut in the Masters, USPGA and Players Championship but is now back in calmer waters. He started the year brilliantly by placing third in Dubai, winning in Bahrain and finishing runner-up in the SA Open. If back in that sort of form, he will take some stopping.
When a player is on a roll like Reitan, there’s no saying when it will end. The 27-year-old Norwegian closed with a flamboyant 60 for a share of second place in Austria on Sunday, shot a 62 when winning in Belgium and was T2 in Hainan before that. Nobody will be teeing up with more confidence on Thursday.
Defending champion Migliozzi is hard to predict and much of his golf this year has been underwhelming but he did finish second in the US Open qualifier and has good vibes for the Amsterdam course having beaten Marcus Kinhult and Joe Dean in last year’s playoff.
Haotong Li, Eugenio Chacarra and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen let us down last week, but all three are very capable at this level.
A rainy weekend in store and hopefully not another 150/1 winner!
With their 12 best players off to Oakmont next week for the US Open, LIV’s tournament on the Robert Trent Jones course at Gainesville, Virginia, takes on more significance than usual as punters look for a late steer for the year’s third Major.
As reigning US Open champion, Bryson DeChambeau is LIV’s flag-bearer as well as their biggest box-office draw, but LIV has other big bullets to fire in former world No. 1 Jon Rahm and their top money-winner this year, Joaquin Niemann.
DeChambeau has gone close in the first two Majors and belatedly opened his account for the year in LIV Korea. He is in cracking form and the man to beat. LIV had a good PGA with DeChambeau T2 and Rahm and Niemann in the top ten.
Rahm is getting agitated about not winning this year, but he put up a terrific show after a bad start at the Masters, then made top ten at Quail Hollow and his consistency, never out of the top ten in seven LIV outings, may finally reap its reward. He looks like a cast-iron each-way bet.
Sergio Garcia has finally paid his fines to the DP World Tour so is now eligible for a Ryder Cup return. We shall soon be seeing him again in European tournaments trying to impress captain Luke Donald. With so many Europeans winning on the PGA Tour, five and counting, Luke will struggle to find a place for the man who has won more points than any other European.
The RTJ course, a 7354-yard par 71, has a distinguished pedigree having hosted four Presidents Cups and the last Solheim Cup. LlV’s fading superstar Phil Mickelson played in all four Presidents Cup there, winning nine and losing five. Those winning days are long over.
Globetrotting Patrick Reed has five top-tens in his last eight starts, including a brilliant third to Rory at Augusta. He looks each-way value at 16/1.
Hitting greens in regulation is key this week and that should suit Rahm and Niemann who has been working on his putting and gained half a shot per round in that department.
It’s a Friday shotgun start over 54 holes with the usual field of 54. Temperatures around 30C and a bit of rain expected on Saturday.
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