Best bets
2pts each-way Aaron Rai @ 14/1
3pts win Tom Kim @ 17/2
1pt each-way Alexander Bjork @ 18/1
1pt each-way Connor Syme @ 40/1
0.5pt each-way Marcel Siem @ 80/1
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The BMW PGA went against us at Wentworth as Ludvig Aberg and Tyrrell Hatton both had the lead on the final day and Viktor Hovland was lurking but it was 40/1 Ryan Fox who won the day with an unstoppable birdie blitz after losing a ball at the third.
The financial pain was only temporary because Sahith Theegala came to the rescue later in the day by dotting up at 18/1 in California for his breakthrough victory, surely the first of many for this hugely popular 25-year-old who wears his heart on his sleeve.
Many of those involved at Wentworth, including PGA Tour stars Tom Kim and Billy Horschel and winner Fox, are teeing it up in the French Open at Le Golf National, half an hour from the centre of Paris and the venue of the 2018 Ryder Cup where Europe won by a wide margin. Let’s hope that’s an omen for what lies ahead in Rome next week.
Kiwis know how to celebrate and the burly Fox is no exception. Whether he has enough adrenaline left after landing the biggest prize of his career on a course where he has never featured before who knows but he’s as strong as an ox, dancing every dance last year to get to No. 2, giving best only to Rory McIlroy in the final standings.
He has a bit of form in Paris, much more than he had at Wentworth, sixth to Tommy Fleetwood in 2017 his best on a 7247 yards par 71 course with only three par fives but a thrill-packed finish, two long par fours with treacherous water awaiting anything less than the perfect shot. At Le National it’s never over till it’s over.
When Guido Migliozzi won last year’s renewal, it looked for all the world as if he would be the one Italian to make Rome for a Ryder Cup debut but it was not to be. Just one top-ten all year makes a successful title defence hard to imagine even if there have been a couple of decent recent efforts.
Much preferred is Alexander Bjork, the Swedish money machine who seems to be on leaderboards every week. Yet another good finish, T18 with Horschel and Kim at Wentworth, plus some sound course form, T3 in 2017 and T8 the following year, marks him down as an each-way play. He needs to find the killer instinct for win purposes.
My admiration for Tom Kim knows no bounds, a dual winner on the PGA Tour in his rookie year and in great form this campaign with a T2 at the Open, sixth at the Scottish and heading for another top-ten at Wentworth until a few late disappointments, this lovable 21-year-old makes the game look fun.
Not the longest off the tee but with a wonderful array of iron shots and a forever sunny disposition, his accuracy could see him a winner on his French debut though he will have to cut out the missed putts that held him back at Wentworth.
Just as talented is the dazzling Min Woo Lee but his brilliance is too often spoilt by careless mistakes. He should be winning more and is becoming expensive to follow. Although far less gifted, Aaron Rai’s game has a consistency that Min Woo lacks. Although not showing much on past visits to Le National, that long spell in the States has made him a tougher competitor.
Fox said he couldn’t have won at Wentworth had he not had a good week at the Irish Open to restore confidence and it could be the same with Rai, the quiet guy from Wolverhampton who bids to follow up his T2 at Wentworth with his first W since the 2020 Scottish Open.
Adrian Meronk, Rasmus Hojgaard and Yannik Paul will be out to show how unlucky they were not to get a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup and all three have French form, Hojgaard beaten just a shot by Migliozzi last year, Paul a fair T8 and Meronk T11.
Paul’s compatriot Marcel Siem is a course winner – champion in 2012 – and is enjoying a big renaissance this year, not only as the Indian Open winner but a more frequent name on leaderboards. Only Tom McKibbin finished ahead of him at the European Open in Hamburg and at 80/1 he could be a good-value outsider.
The French will be looking for a home winner so Victor Perez, Antoine Rozner and Romain Langasgue will be expected to get into the mix. That is extra pressure and Perez in particular could do without it as his recent efforts – cuts missed at Crans and Wentworth – have not been encouraging. Not making the Ryder Cup team after being a front-runner for so long has doubtless hit him hard.
Bob MacIntyre is the only member of the team going to Rome using the French for his Ryder Cup warm-up but he has plenty on his mind and if there’s to be a Scottish winner Connor Syme looks the better bet at 15 points longer. Tenth at all-star Wentworth followed a 7-3-4 spurt at the K Club, Crans and Galgorm Castle, he’s right to keep going while his game is in such great shape.
Paris is set for a wet couple of days but a dry weekend with temperatures in the mid-60s.
Best bets
3pts Lilia Vu top US points @ 11/2
2pts Celine Boutier top European points @ 6/1
1pt Charley Hull top European points @ 11/2
1pt a 14-14 tie @ 12/1
1pt US to win 14.5-13.5 @ 11/1
1pt Europe to win 14.5-13.5 @ 11/1
1pt a hole in one @ 3/1
It’s ladies first in a two-week feast of matchplay golf teeing off on Friday with the Solheim Cup in southern Spain and if Europe’s finest can come away with their third victory in a row it will be an enormous positive for the Ryder Cup men to take into battle when the action switches to Rome next week.
The idea of the American raiders going home with nothing is tremendously appealing but it’s a big ask and a 1-1 scoreline after two mouth-watering encounters is more realistic. The worst scenario, 2-0 to the visitors, is by no means out of the question.
Fitzdares narrowly favour Europe at 19/20 with the USA at 23/20 and 12/1 the tie (or draw as some call it) – and the closeness of the two latest encounters, 15-13 and 14.5-13.5, both in Europe’s favour, mirrors those prices. All three results are on the cards and as a lifetime fence-sitter, I’ll be taking the 12/1 for a dead-heat and the numbers either side of a 14-14 scoreline.
If forced to pick a team, the 23/20 for the USA rates the better value as they have three rookies with immaculate credentials, one, Lilia Vu, who has won two Majors this year, one, Allisen Corpuz, who not only won the US Open but was 54-hole leader in another major, and 20-year-old Rose Zhang, a five-star amateur who won on her pro debut, loves the big occasion and could be the best of the lot.
Set this trio alongside arguably the best golfer in the women’s game, Korda, and you have a fearless quartette who hold the key to the match. If they all click – and Korda’s appearances may be rationed in view of the back problems that have disrupted her year – Europe may have to play second fiddle at gorgeous Finca Cortesan, an American-style layout by Cabell Robinson not far from the border with Gibraltar.
But don’t expect European stars Celine Boutier, Charley Hull and Leona Maguire (whose 4.5 from 5 on debut in Ohio last time was the difference between victory and defeat) to lie down. Hull, runner-up in the US Open and the British equivalent, is in the form of her life and loves matchplay while the underrated Boutier has just won her first major, the Evian, in her native France in a three-win campaign that has elevated her to world No. 5.
Much will be expected of classy Swede Linn Grant whose nine-shot victory over the men in a mixed-sex tournament last year caused a stir, as did her speedy breakthrough when she joined the LPGA Tour but while Suzann Pettersen’s team has strength at the top, it looks vulnerable lower down the order.
Two wild-card picks Emily Kristine Pedersen and Caroline Hedwall stand well outside the world’s top 100 – it’s ten years since Hedwall peaked with five out of five in Europe’s runaway 18-10 triumph in Colorado – and another wild card, Madelene Sagstrom, like Pedersen, has only one top-ten beside her name for 2023.
But this is 18-hole matchplay not 72-hole medal play so world rankings lose much of their meaning. If your betting is ruled by them (it shouldn’t be), you have to be with the Americans whose cumulative rankings total of 296 puts them 212 spots ahead of the Europeans. That sounds a lot. It is a lot. But this will be a tight one and a thriller.
The format is the same as for the Ryder Cup. At stake are 28 points, the USA needs 14.5 to regain the Cup, Europe keeps the trophy if it’s 14-14. It’s foursomes and fourballs (in that order), 36 holes a day for the first two days with 12 singles on Sunday.
Finca Cortisan hosted three Volvo World Match Play Championships back in the day and, with five par fives and five par threes, plus a couple of drivable par fours, is a perfect course for matchplay although not many would want to play it twice in a day.
At 6903 yards par 72 and temperatures in the 80s, only the fittest will be playing in all five series so if you’re thinking of backing Korda for top scorer, be aware the No. 1 American, given her recent health record, is unlikely to be asked to dance every dance.
Anyone who saw the composed, clinical way Vu put the AIG Open to bed at Walton Heath will look no further for their US Top Points Scorer punt while Boutier (5-1-1) and Hull (6-1-2 on European soil, 5-1-1 in foursomes) are in such sublime form that one will surely top-score for Europe although great friends Grant and Maja Stark could well run up a sequence if paired together.
With five par threes and a couple of drivable par fours, it might be worth tossing some loose change at the 3/1 about a hole in one. Yes, I know there’s only 24 runners instead of the 156 in regular strokeplay tournaments so opportunities are limited. It’s a tall order as there has been only one in Solheim Cup history. Anna Nordqvist did it in Colorado in 2013. Time for another!
Best bets
3pts each-way Cameron Smith @ 8/1
1pt each-way Patrick Reed @ 14/1
1pt each-way Joaquin Niemann @ 18/1
Go to the Windy City for the best bet of the week when defending champion Cameron Smith lines up for LIV Chicago as a tasty 8/1 shot for his third victory of a lucrative year.
There’s nothing windy about the Aussie grafter who ran riot at Bedminster last time out for a seven-shot demolition job on his 47 opponents and was almost as dominant when cleaning up 12 months ago on this week’s course, Rich Harvest Farms, 50 miles south-west of the city.
The incentive is there because a third 2023 win would wrap up Player of the Year honours (as long as Talor Gooch, his big rival, doesn’t finish in the top three) and that would be another $18m to stick on his bulging LIV stack.
The 2022 Open champion, one of LIV’s most expensive signings, enjoyed the 7401-yard par 71 last year when dismissing Dustin Johnson and Peter Uihlein to a share of second place and there’s no reason why he should not do so again.
Ace putter Smith is one of only seven in a field of 48 to have chalked up a victory this campaign and serious opposition can be expected from Brooks Koepka in what is, in effect, the PGA champion’s final prep for the Ryder Cup where he is the lone LIV representative.
Koepka and recent winner Bryson DeChambeau apart, big performances can be expected from three LIV non-winners Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Joaquin Niemann. Garcia and Niemann shared fourth place last year while Reed did well to get up to 12th after a poor start. ‘Captan America’ has posted five top-fives from 11 starts in 2023 and is overdue a first win under the LIV banner.
Nobody relishes the team aspect more than Reed or indeed the whole concept – a Friday start, 54 holes instead of 72, no cut so everybody gets paid, shotgun start so it doesn’t take up the whole day, purses so outrageous they need bigger barrows to wheel the loot away, beery pop concerts after play, the sideshows and the razzamatazz. It’s not golf as old fogeys know it but if you don’t approve of Saudi involvement or dislike the format, you don’t have to watch or bet on it.
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