Best bets
4pts win Rory McIlroy @ 100/30
2pts each-way Tyrrell Hatton @ 9/1
1pt each-way Adam Scott @ 18/1
0.5pt each-way Paul Waring @ 80/1
0.5pt each-way Robert MacIntyre @ 18/1
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With the GB & Ireland contingent in high spirits after their annihilation of Continental Europe in a Ryder Cup rehearsal in nearby Abu Dhabi, expect a strong follow-up from Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and fellow Brits in what looks a deluxe edition the Dubai Desert Classic at the Emirates club, the pioneer of big-time golf in the Gulf.
When the Classic first teed off back in 1989, it was on its own. Now there are six Arab states pouring money into the game and what would the DP World Tour, sponsored as it is by Dubai Ports containers, be without them?
The oil-rich sheiks paid a small fortune to bring over Tiger Woods in his pomp to grace the early Desert Classics. He won twice, after famously blowing it in 2001, to join great names of the past like Seve Ballesteros and Ernie Els on the distinguished Emirates roll of honour.
But none has achieved the mastery of this immaculate 7428-yard par 72 masterpiece, long one of most popular ports of call on the circuit, to the extent of McIlroy who is chasing his third victory in a row there and his fifth in all.
Mr Box Office is in his element in Dubai. As a former resident – he bought a property there ten years ago for tax reasons – Rory has so many fine memories not only of the Desert Classic but of the three DP World Tour Championships and six Race To Dubai crowns he has wrapped up in the UAE.
He didn’t play in Abu Dhabi last week – had he done so the 17-8 humiliation of the Continentals might have been even more embarrassing – but top scorer Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton were both unbeaten and looked different class to the rest. They will prove serious rivals as will Hatton’s fellow LIV star Jon Rahm as the Spaniard makes a rare DP World Tour appearance, one of five he needs to make to qualify for Ryder Cup selection.
Meanwhile McIlroy has been busy preparing for what he hopes will be the year he completes a career Slam at Augusta and, with The Open back in his native Northern Ireland at Royal Portrush and the USPGA at Quail Hollow, where he has won four times, 2025 could truly be a vintage one.
A haul of only four Majors does not do full justice to an immense talent. He knows he should have more – last year’s US Open a case in point – and it is bugging him. While the presence of Rahm, who finally came good with two late wins for the outrageous $400m for which the Saudis signed him up, plus the dominance of Fleetwood and Hatton in Abu Dhabi, plus visiting Americans like Akshay Bhatia and Patrick Reed, and classy Aussie Adam Scott, means this is a big ask, it would be madness not to include Rory in any staking plan, stingy though the price might be. If you think 100/30 is terrible value, don’t have a bet. It’s not obligatory.
He was after all beaten first time out in the Dubai Invitational last year, narrowly by Fleetwood but at a different course, Dubai Creek, before going on to reverse the form emphatically at the Emirates the following week (Fleetwood 14th) but while the Southport man shouldn’t be as far away this time, he does not possess the same Emirates form as Hatton who was twice third there before finishing T4 behind Viktor Hovland in 2022. Everyone knows what a fan I am of Hatton and he is the big danger man. This could be a year to remember for this volatile talent.
Hovland is there this week rebuilding after a disastrous 2024 and we know how good he is. Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald will be looking for reassurance that one of the main stars of the Rome triumph is on his way back encouragingly but the Norwegian may need more time.
It is somewhat off-putting that Fleetwood has never really contended in his many Classic attempts (6th best) and for Rahm it’s a trip into the unknown as he is a first-timer at the Emirates. Nor has he played competitive golf for a while.
Last year’s runner-up Adrian Meronk seems to have gone backwards since joining LIV, Rasmus Hojgaard scored only half a point for the Continentals last week and was a major disappointment. Twin brother Nicolai pulled out of that match with the flu but was seen supporting his battered side on Sunday, not the ideal preparation, and I’d sooner back greybeard Englishman Paul Waring.
Winning the Abu Dhabi Championship in November appears to have turned a journeyman into a force to be reckoned with judging from his three and a half points out of four in the Team Cup. His putting was electric. This late bloomer could make the places as could Adam Scott and Bob MacIntyre.
Scotty has been in compelling form though victory is proving elusive. He tied for seventh last year, was ninth in 2022 and he seems at 45 to be reinvigorated by solving the putting problems which dogged him for years after his 2013 Masters triumph. He should have won the previous year’s Open too from four ahead with four to play but I’m ,glad he blew it as the beneficiary, Els, backed at 80/1 and 50/1, landed me the biggest win of my life. Take no prisoners this week, Adam!
Second places in the Scottish Open and BMW Championship followed by fourth at the Tour Championship climaxed a highly successful second half of 2024 for Scott and he opened 2025 with three good rounds at The Sentry in Kapalua before a closing 70 sent him sliding back to 15th. At 44 there is clearly still plenty of petrol in the tank.
When MacIntyre was third to Paul Casey in the 2021 edition, he was a raw talent and has come on a bundle since then. Although only 15th in The Sentry and down the field in the Sony, there was enough good stuff to suggest he’s ripe and ready to go in what could be an epic week. Min Woo Lee and Laurie Canter (T4 in 2022 and hot stuff for GB & I at the weekend) are also worthy of consideration.
And there won’t be a cloud in the sky until Saturday (a bit of a breeze then too) and it will be lovely and warm in the high 20s. Wish you were there?
Best bets
2pts each-way Nick Dunlap @ 40/1
1pt each-way Sam Burns @ 14/1
1pt each-way Justin Thomas @ 11/1
1pt each-way Tom Kim @ 25/1
0.5pt each-way Matt McCarty @ 125/1
0.5pt each-way Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 60/1
Top Continental European
1pt each-way Matteo Manassero @ 12/1
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After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour hits the mainland with the three-course pro-am we old ‘uns knew as the Bob Hope Classic but which is now in its sixth year at La Quinta under the AmEx banner – and with a 300/1 amateur, Nick Dunlap, beating all the pros last year it is a tournament punters should treat with caution.
That was not by any means the only complete outsider you couldn’t make a case for has bled punters dry in the Californian desert. It is only a few years since Adam Long and Andrew Landry won back to back and where are they now? Who were they anyway – barely household names in their own households. But for one golden week in the Golden State they ruled the golfing world.
So too in years gone by did such mystery men as Hudson Swafford, Keith Fergus, DJ Trahan and Ed Fiori in what is always a lottery with birdies flying around everywhere on three flattering par-72 resort courses, La Quinta, and two a drive away at PGA West, the Nicklaus and the Pete Dye Stadium course.
It is on the Stadium that the final round will be played on Sunday after the 54-hole cut and the pro-am part of proceedings is done and dusted. At 7210 yards, it is the longest of the trio but all three are gettable, as Justin Thomas proved when shooting a 61 last year and Dunlap’s 29-under 259 broke the 72-hole scoring record.
Dunlap, only 20 when he won, didn’t get a nickel for it as an amateur and it cost him $1.5m, the first prize money going to the runner-up, South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout. But we saw when he got it up and down at the last for the win what a gutsy golfer he is and it came as no surprise when he turned pro a week later and filled his boots financially later with victory in the Barracuda among a shoal of other smart efforts.
The Alabama youngster warmed up perfectly for this title defence with a top-ten at Waialae at the weekend and at 40/1 looks sound each-way material in a field not overloaded with stars.
It had been 33 years since an amateur had won on the PGA Tour and that was Phil Mickelson so I fancy Dunlap could be a bit special. He even trumped Phil by becoming the first amateur to win as a pro in the same year.
Dual 2024 Major hero Xander Schauffele is a late withdrawal leaving steady Sungjae Im, third in the season opener at Kapalua, and classy Justin Thiomas as Fitzdares’ 11/1 co-favourites in a tournament where the form does not often repay study. Only one of the last five editions went remotely in punters’ favour and that was when Jon Rahm won two years ago, in a classier field than usual with Scottie Scheffler and Schauffele among the opposition.
Maybe the trick is to back a few at three-figure odds and pray you’re on the right ones! Maybe Italy’s Matteo Manassero on his PGA Tour debut (although he played four US Opens) will pop up at 250/1. Top four in a better tournament than this, the BMW PGA at Wentworth, he was good enough to score a rare point for Europe by beating Tom McKibbin in the recent Team Cup and his lack of length is no problem on these easy courses.
I like him best each-way at 12/1 on Fitzdares’ top Continental European market where Austria’s Sepp Straka is a beatable favourite after letting a good position slip away last week. Others of interest at three-figure odds are Matt Kuchar and new boy Matt McCarty at 125/ 1, left-hander McCarty already a winner on only his third PGA start after three Ws in a year earned him promotion from the Korn Ferry circuit. He makes birdies for fun and looks just the type to do well in a pro-am environment.
Justin Thomas and Tom Kim have been disappointing headline selections for the Hawaii tournaments but both had their moments, JT with a Sunday 63 at Kapalua, Kim with a second-day 65 at Waialae, and as they finished last year with big form upsurges after sticky campaigns, they deserve second chances as two of the few class acts in the line-up. Kim was a good sixth here in a stronger field two years ago.
This was Bezuidenhout’s lucky tournament in a way last year even though he left rueing still being a non-winner on the PGA Tour. As he had also been a tidy 11th the previous year, this could be the place where this quietly smooth operator gets his nose in front.
Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns and Tony Finau have decent AmEx records – Cantlay runner-up to Si Woo Kim four years ago – but 2023 Open champion Wyndham Clark has not posted a single top ten in seven visits.
Burns who was co-leader with two to play last year and finished with a pair of double bogeys to T6 could be the best of that quartet if he can get that nightmare out of his mind. This birdie machine, T6 also in 2020, began 2025 brightly with a T8 in Kapalua.
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