Best bets
4pts win Scottie Scheffler @ 15/4
1.5pts each-way Jon Rahm @ 11/1
1.5pts each-way Jordan Spieth @ 18/1
1pt each-way Hideki Matsuyama @ 16/1
1pt each-way Joaquin Niemann @ 22/1
0.5pt each-way Will Zalatoris @ 28/1
0.5pt each-way Justin Rose @ 100/1
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For once; Tiger Woods, legendary holder of five Green Jackets and much, much more, will not be the centre of attention when the 88th Masters tees off at Augusta. Instead, the spotlight will (or should) shine more dazzlingly on the first PGA v LIV showdown of the year and the box-office clash between the game’s current Big Three, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and LIV’s star signing Jon Rahm.
With defending champion Rahm taking a massive bung (maybe as much as $650m) to accept the Saudi shilling a few months later, the Masters and the other Majors are the only tournaments where we’ll see these best of enemies perform on the same stage until this unholy mess is sorted out.
The last thing the PGA Tour wants is a LIV winner and the thought of turncoat Rahm helping another rebel into a Green Jacket in the traditional handing-over ceremony in the Butler Cabin on Sunday must be giving the PGA and the powers-that-be at Augusta National recurring nightmares.
Although Rahm’s victory spared their embarassment 12 months ago before swapping sides, it escaped no-one’s notice that LIV Tour giants Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson shared second place, while bad boy Patrick Reed steamed in behind them for fourth.
Last year the LIV count at Augusta was 18 players but that has dropped significantly to 13 (in a field of 89):because the longer the handbags-at-dawn stalemate goes on, the faster the big names are sliding down the world ratings as their 54-hole format doesn’t carry ranking points.
Even with only 13, LIV holds a very strong hand, not only Rahm but 2020 winner Dustin Johnson, dual runner-up Koepka, man of the LIV season so far Joaquin Niemann, 2022 Open champion Cameron Smith and past Masters Reed and Sergio Garcia have place chances at least.
All however may have to play second and third fiddle to the mighty Scheffler who will win if he can get a decent tune out of his putter. It went like a dream at Sawgrass and Bay Hill but the old faults crept back when the Players champion was chasing a quickfire hat-trick in Houston. It was a shock to watch him miss the six-footer that would have got him a playoff.
That and the slapdash triple-putt from 5ft on day two cost his punters dear but a second Augusta triumph in three years will get losses back with bells on. He and his new mallet-style putter are an item now and punters taking the 15/4 (shortest-priced favourite since Tiger in his pomp) will have fingers and everything else crossed that this is truly a marriage made in heaven.
It’s no secret that the way to beat Augusta – a 7555-yard par 72 of breathtaking beauty and some of the glassiest, trickiest greens on the planet – is to tame the risk-reward par fives, make four pars on the notorious short 12th and not three-putt the cunning 16th when the pin is in the top right-hand corner.
Scheffler’s power is an important asset on a picture-perfect but extremely hilly and tiring course that can play longer than its length but there is more than one way to skin a rabbit as Zach Johnson demonstrated in 2007.
One of the shortest drivers in the field, ZJ never tried to (or couldn’t) reach the par fives in two but finessed wedge and putter to such magical effect that he conjured 11 birdies out of the 16 over the four days.
At 150/1 he, along with Angel Cabrera, Mike Weir and Trevor Immelman, were the least fancied champions since the millennium so while not entirely ruling out a triple-digit winner, it’s worth pointing out that none of the last nine winners was listed at more than 66/1.
Any pundit who puts up a 15/4 shot in a field of 89 as the main bet is asking for abuse. If he wins, punters grumble “any old fool can tip a favourite” and if he flops, the social media after-timers give you hell. Yet Scottie is the only logical choice as so many of his closest rivals are not at their best.
This is McIlroy’s 16th Masters and the tenth when victory would put Rory up there with the gods of the game as a Grand Slam legend. Without a Major of any sort for a decade, he carries too much Masters scar tissue for my money but I’ll be delighted to be proved wrong.
‘Scottie is the only logical choice as so many of his closest rivals are not at their best.’
If he keeps missing greens from the middle of the fairway, he puts additional pressure on the most unreliable club in the bag, the putter. Sunday’s third at San Antonio was his first decent US showing of the year but it was a flattering third, coming after all hope of winning had disappeared.
Rahm is preferred as he comes in under radar after five only so-so performances since joining the LiV gang, all inside the top-ten but with two obvious winning opportunities wasted. Defending champions have a poor record at Augusta. Tiger (who else?) did it in 2002 and Sir Nick Faldo also doubled up in 1989-90 but that’s the lot.
When he won the 2023 Masters, Rahm was on a roll as it was a fourth tournament success in a year when so much else was to come, not least a stellar display in the Ryder Cup. It’s a different scenario this time but one the great Spaniard looks sure to handle, particularly bearing in mind his splendid Augusta record, a win and four more top-tens in just seven attempts.
The next two on my shopping list are both past champions, Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth. Both posted an encouraging warm-up in Texas, Spieth with a T10, Matsuyama with a T17 that was a continuation of the robust form this injury-prone Japanese star has been showing since conquering Riviera, a good yardstick for Augusta.
In just nine attempts Spieth has signed for a first, two seconds, a third and a fourth, the last one coming just a year ago. The Texan is less reliable than Matsuyama but when he’s good, he’s very good and he is driving the ball longer and straighter than he did when chalking up a 2-1-2 sequence back at the start of a dazzling Masters career. Against that, those five-footers that used to be food and drink now give him grief.
Pick No. 5 is the chilled-out Chilean Joaquin Niemann, going great guns at LIV where he’s a dual winner this year. Bagging the Australian Open before Christmas has clearly been a great ego-boost and he’s improving year-on-year round Augusta (40-35-16 the last three visits).
There’s a big queue for my fifth pick and I find it hard to split comeback kid Will Zalatoris, Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala, Koepka and Shane Lowry. Although latest outings have disappointed, Zalatoris has posted three good finishes since returning to the fray after a back problem took him out of the game for four months and his Masters record, sixth and tenth from just two appearances, is hard to ignore. Finau has a similar soft spot for Augusta but flat-stick confidence is low and Theegala finished ninth on debut last year.
Reporting on a practice round with Tiger, Zalatoris gave an upbeat update on the GOAT, saying he couldn’t believe how good his driving was – “the best I’ve seen him play”. The 125/1 looks juicy but backing Woods to make the cut could be the most profitable way to bet him.
I’m swerving big-name first-timers Ludvig Aberg and US Open champion Wyndham Clark because course experience is important and you have to go back 45 years to Fuzzy Zoeller to find the last debutant to win.
Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Reed have not got their 2024 campaigns going full throttle to merit a bet and Xander Schauffele has been expensive to follow. But I couldn’t put you off old-timers Adam Scott, Justin Rose and back-to-form Sergio Garcia.
At 100/1 Rose is too good to miss on his remarkable Augusta record, runner-up twice, plus four more top 20s. This will be Rose’s 19th start at Augusta and he has finished 11 times in the top 20.
It’s a first Masters for last-gasp-entry Akshay Bhatia who qualified with after a thrilling playoff triumph in San Antonio on Sunday but he’s punching above his weight here and will do well to make the weekend.
Even if the weatherman is predicting a stormy first day, the sun will eventually come out, bringing temperatures in the high 70s and the azaleas look gorgeous. Bring it on!
Best bets
3pts Woods @ evens to make the cut
2pts Lamprecht @ 13/5 Top Amateur
1pt Lamprecht @ 29/10 Top South African
1pt Nick Taylor @ 23/10 Top Canadian
1pt Theegala @ 21/20 to beat Lowry 72 holes
1pt Scott @ 4/5 to beat Fowler 72 holes
Unless you’ve got insider knowledge about Tiger’s well-being, backing the five-time Masters champion at Fitzdares’ 125/1 to win yet another Green Jacket requires a mighty leap of faith. But there’s one way to show your love for the GOAT and that’s by backing him at evens to make the cut.
A limited field of 89 will set off but only 50 plus ties will be staying for the weekend and he should be well up for that as he has a proud cut record – 23 made in a row as an professional – and although he had to withdraw with unbearable pain in his foot a year ago, the record still stands as he was in the middle of Saturday’s third round when he cried enough.
Will Zalatoris partnered him in a practice round at the weekend and was blown away by the quality of his striking and the distance he was hitting it. With five nervous amateurs in the line-up and ceremonial golfers like Fred Couples, Jose Maria Olazabal, Mike Weir and even Zach Johnson, a long way removed from the golfer who pitched and putted to Masters glory in 2007, even an 80%,Woods should be good enough to see them off. At 48 Tiger will probably struggle on the hard-walking Augusta National fairways at the weekend so catch him while he’s fresh.
The race for Top Amateur looks at the mercy of South African beanpole Christo Lamprecht who co-led our Open with a 66 after round one at Hoylake. That was the end of the fireworks but the world No. 1 amateur was still the only one to make the weekend.
‘Will Zalatoris partnered him in a practice round at the weekend and was blown away.’
At 6ft 8 Christo, ranked No.1 on the amateur scene, would become the tallest player to make the cut in Masters history. As a Georgia resident, this massive hitter should be in his comfort zone among friends and the amazing story of amateur Nick Dunlap’s triumph over the pros at the AmEx in January was a green light for Lamprecht who is shortly to join the pro ranks.
He also has prospects on the Top South African market where Erik Van Rooyen and the fading Charl Schwartzel are his only two opponents. The 27/10 quote looks fair enough.
Other fancies: 2013 Masters hero Adam Scott at 4/5 to beat Rickie Fowler who looked all at sea last week; lefty Nick Taylor at 23/10 for Top Canadian on the back of his win at Scottsdale; and Sahith Theegala, ninth on Augusta debut last year, to turn over Shane Lowry on a course where the Irishman’s third two years ago is the only top-20 from eight appearances.
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