WALES vs FRANCE, Friday March 11th, 8pm
Best bets
France HT/FT @ 4/6
Wales to win by 1-5 points @ 6/1
Jonathan Danty first try-scorer @ 18/1
Josh Adams first try scorer @ 11/1
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You cannot back France at 1-4 to beat Wales in Cardiff on a Friday night. These are alarmingly atmospheric occasions, although I am hearing that there remain tickets to be had in The Gods. A suggestion that even the Welsh fans are not expecting much in the way of bread from heaven. Yes, I think France will win but until they win either a Grand Slam or a World Cup, I’ll not be quite as certain of a French win in Cardiff as I am a New Zealand victory. 2-5? Maybe. But not 1-4.
The flip side is that Wales are 100-30 to win. This is the same price as France were to win the Grand Slam pre tournament. Hopefully a few of you availed yourself of Fitzdares’ generosity and are sitting pretty at the moment. But Wales won’t win, they can’t win, can they?
France have a far more potent pack. The Welsh selection in the back row gives them more footballing skill in wide channels where Seb Davies – the blind side pick – and Taulupe Faletau at Number 8 roam. France have 15 men adept at the breakdown. If Wales lose this battle they could take a beating similar to the one suffered by Scotland in round 3.
France are potent up front and they are flying behind the scrum. Sean Edwards will know the right words when they roll into Cardiff. I am sticking with the 100-30 Grand Slam.
Yet there are people who bet patriotically. If you are such a Welshman, may I suggest a Welsh victory by 1-5 points which is available at 6-1. Should France find a way to combust (two sending off’s for example) Wales will still win by the smallest of margins. I can’t see it but the odds are superior and it cannot be anything but close in the eventuality of a shock result. This is recommended for patriotic Welshmen only.
As for France, there is a bet. 4-6 to lead half time and full time. If you believe they are 1-4 in terms of superiority, you would expect them to be ahead from start to finish. Jonathan Danty is a bruising, in form inside centre who is worth a bet at 18-1 for first try scorer while Josh Adams is the pick for Wales fans and neutrals. He was sharp at Twickenham and can benefit on the end of Dan Biggar’s cross kicking game.
ENGLAND vs IRELAND, Saturday March 12th, 16:45pm
Best bets
Ireland to win @ 4/5
Ireland 6-10 points @ 15/4
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Let’s consider the form lines. Ireland and France are clear of the field. England, Wales and Scotland are clear of Italy but well behind the big two. On form lines, Ireland are a good ten points better than England. Twickenham could boost the home team but if Ireland make the fast sort of start they did against Wales, it could be a muted atmosphere. The England fans are travelling with faith, not a lot of expectation.
Ireland have lost two thirds of their front row but have decent cover. England have a front row bench lacking in impact barring Joe Marler. Ireland have two fine second rows. England a great one and a decidedly unproven one. England’s best player against Wales, Alex Dombrandt, is relegated to the bench due to Covid. His replacement, Sam Simmonds might not enjoy the punishing intensity of Ireland’s work at the breakdown.
England have Marcus Smith but Ireland have the timeless and in form Jonny Sexton who is kicking at 83% success rate at test level since 2021. If the underdogs are going to win, the favourites have to blow some chances. That looks unlikely – on all current form.
Ireland have a centre in Bundee Aki who’ll win the gain line. England are playing one of their trump cards, Henry Slade, out of position and while Freddie Steward impressed hugely against Wales, there is a lack of finishing power that Jonny May and Anthony Watson used to provide on the wings.
Yet whereas Wales are 100-30 in their 2 horse race, England are 11-10. I know Ireland have only won once in 4 their last 4 visits to Twickenham but the last time was only 2 games ago. And this is an Ireland team making progress while England have dithered.
Who knows, England might leave their mediocre form behind and catch Ireland on a bad day but if you look at this game without the nuisance of nationalist emotions with its incumbent blind faith, Ireland are the only winners and 4-5 is a lot juicier than the prohibitive 1-4 on France.
Chatting on an Irish Podcast earlier this week with the former Ireland hooker, KeithWood, he had Ireland to win by 5 points. I was 6-10 which is available at 15-4. That’s the Optimistic Irish bet.
ITALY vs SCOTLAND, Saturday March 12th, 14:15pm
Best bets
Scotland to win by 20+ points @ EVS
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It isn’t easy to get excited by this one, wedged as it is between the other two matches. Italy are 9-1 to win which, in these days, reads as an indictment of a Scotland team that has failed to keep the wagon rolling after beating England. The loss in Wales hurt them, the loss to France was a humiliation.
But this latter effort will guarantee a Scotland team stripped of any complacency. A win will no longer do for Scotland; a decent performance is a necessity. Finn Russell has been off form, trying too much for the last two games but Italy is the sort of opposition he can rip to pieces if the game breaks up.
To Italy’s eternal credit, they did not allow Ireland to overrun them as the game developed, even with 13 men on the field for a significant amount of time. There was plenty of determination in the team but I turned my TV off at full time with the feeling that Ireland had lost their edge and poise, with the victory an absolute certainty such a long way out.
Italy receive a 20 point start at evens. They are used to conceding forty plus points on a regular basis. I can see Scotland doing just that. England were out of sight at half time in Rome and went to sleep. Scotland – a side similar in quality to England – have more for which to play. They can cover the 20 point handicap.
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