England v France is the weekend’s big game; or is it? I’m not so certain. If you believe their manager and the players, that win is just around the corner. And when it comes, we’ll all forget about these abominable recent results….so Ben Earl told the assorted English press pack in the bowels of the Aviva Stadium after what was only a narrow defeat on the scoreboard.
England v France
France -6 in 3-way handicap @ EVS
Damien Penaud 1st try scorer @ 5/1
Antoine Dupont anytime try scorer @ 13/8
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It is a fact that England only lost by 5 points. 27-22. But facts don’t tell the real truth. When Ireland pressed the accelerate button they went away from England with ease before relaxing from a 27-10 lead with less than 5 remaining minutes.
So, when you read about the narrow margins of defeat, an average of 4.8 against some of the best teams, remember the one area where England is undisputedly world number one is there ability to bend statistics and data to their will.
When England really did play well, in victory against Ireland and agonising defeat against France in Lyon during the 2024 Six Nations, it seemed the corner had turned. Since then England have beaten Japan twice and lost all their other 6 games.
There is a growing concern that England are too reactive, too obsessed with stopping the opposition to focus on themselves and finishing off games like last Saturday’s.
Winning and losing are habits. Like all habits, they are hard to break. While France have beaten New Zealand narrowly in England’s awful Autumn, the difference between marginal wins and losses isn’t to be measured on the scoreboard but in the head.
From where I was sitting in Dublin, England looked quite literally like a team of losers. Their fightback was irrelevant other than to massage statistics.
When England crack their bad habit, we’ll take them seriously against the world’s big guns but until then, don’t be seduced by the narrow margins of defeat. It’s the consistency of loss that counts. France are 4/9 to win. They should be double the price. They weren’t even near their best in the 43-0 hammering of poor old Wales last Friday.
The game – as suggested in last week’s column – was a done deal by half time. In terms of handicap betting it was a rare and enjoyable experience. Antoine Dupont created mayhem. This week Damien Penaud returns.
The winger is in the form of his life. The pair of them play as if they have twins on the field. Based on the winger’s work rate I’ll back him small at 5-1 to be first try scorer.
But the main punt here is France on the 3 way handicap giving England 6 points start. At evens. 4/9 is more than fair but ignore the recent scoreboards and back France to give up 6 points. They were 7/2 for the Grand Slam when advised to back them last week.
They are currently 5/2 and can take another step (and a profitable one for us) at Twickenham. I also like the concept of Dupont as an anytime try scorer.
Italy v Wales
Wales to win @ 9/4
Cappiozzo 1st try scorer @ 9/2
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Italy v Wales is another reasonable betting opportunity. Now, I know that I have been warning patriotic punters off England for fear of psychological weakness, so suggesting anyone should back Wales could be construed as deranged – at best.
It is well known Wales have gone a calendar year without tasting the sweet smell of success. Italy have beaten them twice in their last 3 games in Cardiff but here’s the difference. Italy are some way from being serial winners.
I keep reading that all the pressure is on Wales but I think Italy, heavy odds on, are in a position of favouritism which is new to them. The pressure to win is perhaps greater than that on Wales.
Yes, they were good in patches in Scotland but 2/5 to win at home? Wales haven’t loss in Rome sincxe 2007. Wrong odds…Wales lost 43-0 but to a fired up France.
They played through to the last minute and were never demoralised. Mental stress would be my worry. But with Jac Morgan and Botham Junior in the back row and Taulupe Faletau back for the first time since the World Cup, they look a decent bet at 9/4. Don’t go crazy but this is a price that is tempting.
Scotland v Ireland
Scotland to win by 1-5 and 6-10 points both @ 5/1
Scotland to win @ 2/1
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I’ll let you in on my working week…well…a bit of graft. The plan for my Sunday Times preview piece on Scotland versus Ireland was going to be based around the two outside centres. Garry Ringrose, the defensive mastermind of Ireland’s midfield, up against Huw Jones, the hat trick hero against Italy who has long been the most dangerous attacking centre in these Isles.
Then the news broke; the Irishman was on the bench, Robbie Henshaw to start. Having told my editor of the plan on Thursday I felt a fool until he texted me with a twitter message from Brian O’ Driscoll who informed the online world he too was confused.
Has Simon Easterby, the interim Irish manager while Andy Farrell is with the Lions, got it wrong? Even though Scotland miss their captain and inside centre, Sione Tuipolotu, they still have their trickster at fly half. Finn Russell can pass Jones into the sort of space he put Ollie Lawrence and others in Bath colours against Leinster in the Champions Cup.
Could it open the way for an exciting Scottish attack to pour through?
And it’s not as if Ireland were that convincing against England. Indeed, well as Sam Prendergast played in the second quarter of the game, England most certainly rattled him in the first quarter. Rory Darge is developing into an outstanding test open side. He’ll cause problems for Ireland, in a different way to the best back 3 in the tournament.
All this in Scotland’s favour yet Ireland are long odds on. The home side can be backed at 2-1 and I would advise it were it not for the smarter bet of backing Gregor Townsend’s team to win by 1-5 points as well as 6-10. Both prices are 5-1. I cannot see Ireland losing by any more than 10 which gives a 5-2 bet. If that is all too smart-arsey Scotland are 2-1 to win.
After 10 straight defeats at Irish hands, this could be Scotland’s Sunday.
Happy punting and enjoy the rugby.
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