ENGLAND vs WALES, Saturday February 26th, 16:45pm
Best bets
Marcus Smith first try-scorer @ 14/1
Alex Dambrandt first try-scorer @ 12/1
Taine Basham first try-scorer @ 28/1
England -14 @ 19/20
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Only a fool or someone with scant regard for their finances would pile their money onto a horse without the briefest consideration of conditions on a race day. Yet when it comes to rugby we wait for the team announcement with bated breath and then work out who will win and why, the 23 names at the forefront of all thought.
Yet an international match, such as England versus Wales at the midway stage of this season’s Six Nations could well be influenced by the elements. The ‘going’, to borrow from racing parlance, is set to be good. The groundsman does a great job at Twickenham; it’s never a bog but there’s nothing anyone can do about the weather.
It’s been a wet and windy start to a tournament in which England, in the shape of Marcus Smith, are keen to keep the tempo of the game up. The grind of the territorial pressure courtesy of the kicking game isn’t yet ancient history but with Bristol’s whippet of a scrum half in Harry Randall selected ahead of the more prosaic Ben Youngs at scrum half, England are set to spin that ball.
Alex Dombrandt’s selection is another important clue to the way England want to play. He has a symbiotic relationship with Smith, his club fly half. If England can produce quick phase possession this duo can cause chaos. In fact, I would recommend a small bundle bet of Smith at 14-1 and Dombrandt at 12-1 as first try scorer. Wales don’t like line outs but Taine Basham is the type to tag onto the rear of a close range one. Together with his fine form, he’s the bet for Welsh fans at 28-1…
Anyway, back to the game. Good going would be just grand for England. The skies are forecast to be clear on a chilly late afternoon. It won’t help a fiery Welsh team who benefit from slowing opposition ball down. Drizzle and a wet ball is their friend. They were not pretty against Scotland but they scrapped with huge commitment and nullified Finn Russell. If they do the same with the England fly half, it could be close.
Despite the late loss of Manu Tuilagi, I think Wales will struggle to bottle the little genie. Ireland played at pace and ran Wales ragged. Against Scotland the lack of tempo enabled Wales to scrap their way to victory. Were wind and rain expected, I’d be tipping England to win by 1-5 points; as it stands I think they can give Wales 14 points at 19/20.
England are not leaking too many points while Wales are not looking like scoring too many tries. Revenge for last year’s loss is on the cards with the 8/9/10 axis central to England’s effort.
SCOTLAND vs FRANCE, Saturday February 26th, 14:15pm
Best bets
Melvyn Jaminet first try-scorer @ 16/1
Darcy Graham first try-scorer @ 11/1
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Before the Twickenham game, comes arguably the game of the weekend with France travelling to Edinburgh in pursuit of a Grand Slam (tipped at 100-30 before the start of the championship.) Scotland will not be easy. Gregor Townsend’s team have consecutive wins against England to go with last year’s win in Paris. They will not roll over in front of their fans.
However, I don’t think they have the power to compete for eighty minutes against a big and powerful French pack. The front row is the best scrummaging unit in Europe, Cameron Woki is Europe’s most explosive line out forward and Gregory Alldrit spearheads a beautifully balanced back row.
All this without a mention of Antoine Dupont. He has yet to ignite in this tournament. It is only a matter of when. And alongside him is his club partner, Romain Ntamack. This is some side on paper.
In the back line Gael Fickou is as good as any centre in the world while Jonathan Danty, in such great form this season, returns from injury. Man for man, they are superior to Scotland. I haven’t mentioned the brilliance of Damien Penaud on the right wing….and yet Ireland did fight their way back into the game in Paris and Italy stayed in the game (at least on the scoreboard) for an entire half.
For all its talent France has a capacity to switch off at intervals. Scoreboards can seem a little deceptive at full time. On paper I take France to cover a seven point start on the handicap but this team have yet to convince they are mentally able to stay focused from start to finish.
With match winners like Russell and Stuart Hogg opposing them, best to stick with the Grand Slam bet with perhaps have a couple of small bets on the first try scorer. I like Melvyn Jaminet, the French full back. He’s a fine kicker but also a great reader of the game. I can see him gliding into space to score a first try at 16-1.
The Scottish alternative is Darcy Graham at 11-1. His case is strong. He is scoring test tries and is in great form. With the young Bordeaux centre, Yoram Moefana, taking the place of injured Gabin Villiere on the left wing, watch out for Russell testing the rookie’s positional skills. If he switches off for a second the Russell-Graham combination can strike.
IRELAND vs ITALY, Sunday February 27th, 15:00pm
Best bets
Ireland -40 @ 19/20
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Ireland complete the action against Italy on Sunday. A 40 point start seems a lot but England won by 33 in Rome and Ireland are a better side than England and they are at home. They have put away mid ranking teams like Argentina and Japan when France and Scotland have struggled.
Andy Farrell has his team playing at a pace which blows all bar the best away. Expect them to bounce back from defeat in Paris with a convincing display – on the field and the scoreboard.
