Best bets
2pts each-way Ludvig Aberg @ 10/1
2pts each-way Will Zalatoris @ 22/1
1pt each-way Jason Day @ 22/1
0.5pt each-way Aaron Rai @ 33/1
0.5pt each-way Justin Rose @ 60/1
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Europe’s Ryder Cup prospects received an early double boost with the impressive victories of Tyrrell Hatton in Dubai and Sepp Straka in the Californian desert on Sunday – just the start to 2025 that captain Luke Donald needed.
Could there be more good news coming at this week’s Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego where Europe landed the 1-2-3 last year with Matthieu Pavon beating Nicolai Hojgaard and Stephan Jaeger?
Hatton and Straka, an Austrian whose family transplanted to Georgia when he was 14, were both members of the winning European team in Rome two years ago and while Hatton’s place was never in doubt even if he needs a wild-card pick because of his LIV involvement, Straka’s position was different and his third career win, a Viennese waltz with the Americans left toiling well behind, at The American Express, will surely have made Donald’s mind up about him, even if he had any doubts, as Straka simply took them apart, going 70 holes without a bogey. Never mind that the winning margin over Justin Thomas was only two: the fat lady had sung long before then.
Good luck to anybody who did the 609/1 double, Hatton at 9/1 and Straka at 60/1 – as a big fan I was more than happy to get just Hatton right. He is looking more and more a world top-five golfer, strong in every department even temperament when he puts his mind to it. He mostly kept that well under control when it mattered in Dubai and previously when unbeaten for GB and Ireland in the Team Cup in Abu Dhabi.
With Rory McIlroy (T4) not getting going until too late and Jon Rahm (missed cut) not getting going at all, the Desert Classic was there for the taking. Hatton took it and it won’t be for the only time this year. He had his first top ten at Augusta last year and Fitzdares’ 33/1 for the Masters is massive.
There’s no Hatton at tough Torrey Pines this week when underrated Frenchman Pavon, easily the pick of the crushed Continental Europeans at the Team Cup, has a sporting chance of making a success of the title he won from young Dane Nicolai Hojgaard and expatriate German Stephan Jaeger, the more so because Xander Schauffele, who would have started favourite, has decided for a second week not to risk coming back too soon after illness and original entry Collin Morikawa is missing too.
But punters looking for history to repeat itself in a tournament that also went Europe’s way through Rahm (his breakthrough in the States) in 2017 and Justin Rose two years later may be more interested in Sweden’s Ludvig Aberg or jovial Irishman Shane Lowry.
Long, straight driver Aberg was T9 on his Torrey debut last year and has already shown he means business by taking fifth place behind Hideki Matsuyama on his Sentry bow earlier this month. The long (7765 yards) South, a municipal course but don’t confuse “public” with ‘easy” in this instance, should be much more up Aberg’s alley. He’s the No. 1 pick in an open contest.
The South hosts three of the rounds, the other being played on the easier, five-hundred-yard-shorter North (7258) though both are par 72s. Incredibly the South was only a par 71 when it hosted two US Opens, won by Tiger Woods and Rahm, in 2008 and 2021. No wonder only two players, Woods and his playoff victim Rocco Mediate, finished under par that week.
They of course were at a different time of year and the course was set up to strict US Open specifications. There was no North course to bring a little relief either, so the average winning score for the last five Farmers has been a less daunting 14 under, still a whole heap different from the 25 from Straka last week or Matsuyama’s outrageous 35 at Kapalua.
As a truer test the cream should come to the top as Woods and Rahm did, though recent results blow a hole in that theory. That’s not to say the Japanese star isn’t the cream: he’s one of the best and must have a big shout again this week when he vies for favouritism with Aberg. Although third in 2019 and 13-9 the past two years, Matsuyama has generally been consistent rather than threatening and there may again be one or two to stop him.
Catching the eye at the AmEx in 12th was fairways-and-greens machine Will Zalatoris, now happily restored to full throttle after a long spell on the sidelines recovering from back surgery, then coming back too soon and damaging his hip, and bedding in a new swing to reduce pressure on his back.
He’s put on a stone and 15 yards, is getting increasingly encouraging results from the broomstick putter and this three-time Majors runner-up looks sure to add soon to his sole tour victory, at St Jude in 2022. He likes Torrey and almost won there three years ago when pipped by Luke List in a playoff. He had been eighth there previously and was a solid T13 last year when not looking the man he is today.
Another straight shooter Aaron Rai is also the right type to do well. He was strong at the Team Cup and broke through on the PGA Tour last year after earning his stripes in Europe with two victories, one of them in the prestigious Scottish Open.
I like the quiet man from Wolverhampton for a place as well as course expert Jason Day, twice champion here and now and again looking the force that brought him Torrey glory in 2015 and 2018. More recently T7 two years, the Aussie had his chances to catch Straka on Sunday but couldn’t buy a putt. He is not the golfer he was but still good enough to win when the fat cats are away. A tie for fourth on Sunday has set him up nicely for a tournament that means a lot to him.
At longer odds, course winner Rose makes some appeal on the form he displayed at the Team Cup. At 44 he may not expect to make another Ryder Cup appearance except as captain but would love to surprise himself and everybody else by playing his way in yet again. Runner-up in last year’s Open, Rosey is not done yet. He’ll be at home in the weather – the weekend will be cool (14C) and showery.
This tournament tees off on Wednesday, finishes Saturday to avoid a Sunday clash with the NFL Conference Championship games. So get those bets on early!
Best bets
2pts each-way Tom McKibbin @ 20/1
2pts each-way Keita Nakajima @ 20/1
2pts each-way Thorbjorn Olesen @ 10/1
1pt each-way Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen @ 28/1
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It’s just an hour’s drive from Dubai to the UAE’s most northerly emirate but while the $2.5m Ras Al Khaimah Championship is only small beer compared to the riches of last week’s $9m Desert Classic, there are important early points to be earned and Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald will be particularly interested in how Thorbjorn Olesen and Tom McKibbin perform.
If all the buzz is true about Northern Irishman McKibbin’s move to join Jon Rahm’s Legion XIII squad and about to join the breakaway LIV circus, then this could be his final DP World Tour event as LIV opens in Riyadh shortly.
Despite counsel from Rory McIlroy to consider the wisdom of taking the $5m signing-on fee as he would be turning his back on the opportunity to take up the PGA Tour card he has earned as well as compromising his Ryder Cup prospects, McGibbin appears to have up his mind in favour of taking the bung.
Joining LIV of course doesn’t rule the lanky 22-year-old out of the Ryder reckoning – LIV stars Rahm and Hatton played in the last one in Rome – and an overdue second DPWT victory, on top of the strong T6 showing in Dubai on Sunday and three wins out of four for GB & I in the Team Cup, would help his cause enormously.
This is his first visit to the Al Hamra course which is hosting the RAK for the fourth time and despite its 7378-yard length it’s geared for birdies and shouldn’t take much knowing.
Olesen even went to 27 under for a landslide six-stroke triumph 12 months ago, the eighth DPWT victory of a prolific career. Given that he was only two shots of the playoff the previous year, it’s safe to say Al Hamra is perfect for the Dane who is trying to regain a Ryder Cup spot seven years after his one appearance.
He whacked the mighty Jordan Spieth by a wide margin when Europe put the USA to the sword in Paris in 2018 and thoroughly deserves to be this week’s favourite. Unlike many, he does know how to win. The only slight worry is his form as he failed to win a match for the Continentals in the Team Cup before failing to figure in Dubai.
We have plenty of opposition to the young guns, notably LIV ace Patrick Reed, a recent Asian Tour winner but probably not quite the player he was, and Ryan Fox, the long-hitting Kiwi who found it hard going in his year on the US circuit but his T10 in Dubai at the weekend will have gone a long way to restoring any lost confidence.
Jordan Smith, classy but expensive to follow, is another for the short list. He won on the course in its Challenge Tour days in 2016 and confirmed his liking for the place by shooting 20 under for a second time when it was upgraded to main-tour status in 2022.
The big difference that week was finding Nicolai Hojgaard shooting 24 under to consign Smithy to second place, a position he is more accustomed to as he typically struggles to finish the job off.
More ambitious and less inhibited is Japanese youngster Keita Nakajima, a former world No. 1 amateur who quickly adapted to the pro ranks and opened his account by winning the Indian Open last spring. He recorded that rarest of birds, an albatross, on the final hole at the Emirates course on Sunday, holing out with his 236-yard second shot for a top-20 finish there to follow his T7 at the Tour Championship before Christmas.
What catches the eye is his T4 on first sight of Al Hamra 12 months ago. The 24-year-old is clearly capable of improving on that now that he is better acquainted with the Peter Harradine 2007 layout.
Also showing the kind of form we’re looking for was Danish prospect Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, whom captain Donald liked the look of enough to have picked him for the Continental team in the Ryder Cup trial.
Rasmus showed the benefit of that invaluable experience of mixing it with the big names in a matchplay environment by going to Dubai with his tail still up and getting into a strong position before blowing a top-five by double-bogeying the last. A big star on the Challenge Tour last year, he is very much one to keep on-side at this level.
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