MEXICO OPEN
Best bets
2pts each-way Jake Knapp @ 33/1
2pts each-way Akshay Bhatia @ 14/1
1pt each-way Sam Stevens @ 22/1
0.5pts each-way Stephan Jaeger @ 25/1
0.5pts each-way Harry Hall @ 28/1
2pts Patrick Rodgers Top 10 @ 14/5
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The euphoria of Swedish sensation Ludvig Åberg embellishing Europe’s phenomenal start to the year—not only on the PGA Tour but in the world of golf as a whole—cannot entirely mask the fact that this week’s televised fare, the Mexico and Kenya Opens, is bread-and-butter stuff at best.
Not one world top-25 player can be bothered to go to Mexico, while the excellent Muthaiga course outside Nairobi, the first in a three-week DP World Tour stopover in Africa, has failed to attract anybody in the top 100 to Kenya.
But because LIV tournaments don’t count for world ranking points (even though a solution may be closer than we dare to think), everybody knows they are pretty meaningless anyway. Jon Rahm, beyond dispute a top-five golfer, can’t be 52nd best on the planet, nor Brooks Koepka the 149th. That’s their punishment for taking the Saudi millions.
But, hey, sunnyside up. Åberg was the fourth European to triumph in the States following Sepp Straka, Rory McIlroy and Thomas Detry, and the year is only seven weeks old. The 25-year-old showed maturity beyond his years to cut down leader Maverick McNealy with a cool-as-you-like last-hole birdie in the rerouted Genesis Championship at Torrey Pines. You can bet your boots there will be more to come from this generational talent, with the classic swing and a temperament to match.
Åberg was a 25/1 shot last week and took full advantage of unconvincing performances, both off the tee and on the greens, by market leaders Scottie Scheffler and McIlroy. Rory disgraced himself with the flat stick in shooting 76-72 over the weekend, his putting stats on Saturday the worst of the entire field.
It was a bizarre week, with the two 54-hole leaders, Patrick Rodgers and Denny McCarthy, without a W between them in a combined 527 starts. Punters were bracing themselves for an even bigger shock than Detry’s breakthrough after 228 tries in Europe and the USA the previous week until Åberg came along to rescue many.
Although my main hopes, Collin Morikawa at Torrey and Rahm for LIV Adelaide, never looked like winning, the beauty of golf is that it gives the punter time to reset and take stock. The in-running prospects of Joaquin Niemann, now a five-time winner in less than two years, and Åberg, in light of the struggles of Scheffler and McIlroy, looked inviting enough to get some of us walking away not only unscathed but even in profit.
Excellent though Åberg was, Fitzdares’ 12/1 Masters quote looks plenty short enough, but the 7/5 for Europe to retain the Ryder Cup in September is beginning to look tempting.
Not that everything in Europe’s garden is rose-tinted: Viktor Hovland, key to our success in the last match, is in no-man’s-land with a swing change and missed the cut at Torrey, as did Straka, Bob MacIntyre and Justin Rose, while Ryder hopeful Rasmus Højgaard finished stone-cold last with horrendous rounds of 82-77.
Down Mexico way this week, Højgaard bids to regroup at Vidanta Vallarta, a long par 71 measuring 7,456 yards. As a typical Greg Norman course, its generous fairways encourage big hitters, and Højgaard is certainly that, but can he shrug off that disaster so speedily?
The three Mexico Opens at this track have gone to Rahm, Tony Finau and first-timer Jake Knapp, who is back to defend after winning by two from Sami Välimäki last year. With an average drive of 308.6, he is right up there, along with the other two past winners, as a big hitter. This is his time of year, as he had just preceded his Mexico breakthrough with a third at the Farmers and followed it with an immediate fourth at the Cognizant. A 17th at Genesis on Sunday, his best of this year so far, sets him up nicely for this title defence on a course with which he has such positive mental associations.
But he’ll need to go some to cope with the fast-improving Akshay Bhatia, twice a winner in his short career and a 23-year-old gaining in confidence all the time. Ninth place in top company at the weekend shows where he’s at now, and he has course cred from his fourth as a rookie two years ago.
Aaron Rai is the top-rated European but had a hard week at the office in San Diego and has yet to peak this year. This is a good opportunity for a fifth Euro winner, as they’re mob-handed with the Højgaard twins, Rai, Stephan Jaeger, Harry Hall, Thorbjørn Olesen, Matt Wallace, Victor Perez, Paul Waring, Antoine Rozner, Matteo Manassero and Matti Schmid all in with an each-way shout at this level.
Hall has as good a chance as any. The 27-year-old from Dorset opened his account in a playoff thriller in Kentucky in August and has been a consistent presence since, with top-tens in the two Hawaii tournaments at the start of the year and a decent effort at the AmEx. Hall is nothing sensational but won’t need to be.
Jaeger edged out the great Scheffler in Houston last year and was T3 behind Knapp in Mexico. The German is well capable of going low on a course where Finau got it to 24 under two years ago.
Patrick Rodgers is the most naturally gifted, but how can you back a guy who has lost 279 in a row? Yet he led going into the last round at Torrey on Sunday (predictably failing to finish the job off but far from disgraced in a share of fifth place), and he likes Vidanta, where he’s finished 10-10-6. He could again lead after three rounds, and the 14/5 for a top-ten finish is the safest way to go with this serial loser.
Sam Stevens is another tour maiden, but give him a chance—he’s not been around for long and he’s made 13 cuts in a row, dating back to last summer. A repeat of the consistent Texan’s runner-up finish at the Farmers would make the 28-year-old a prime contender to get off the mark.
After a cloudy start, the sun should shine for the weekend, with temperatures in the high 20s and not enough wind to make a difference.
KENYA OPEN
Best bets
1.5pts each-way Martin Couvra @ 66/1
1.5pts each-way Jayden Schaper @ 33/1
1pt each-way Ivan Cantero @ 33/1
1pt each-way Angel Ayora @ 25/1
1pt each-way Brandon Wu @ 66/1
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The full title of this first leg of the DP World Tour’s three-week stopover in Africa is the Magical Kenya Open, but there’s nothing magical about the field it has attracted, as the top-rated golfer in Nairobi is only the 108th-best player in the world.
With Europe’s finest taking the week off and the next echelon more interested in the bigger purse on offer in Mexico, the leftovers are booked in at the lovely Muthaiga course, ten miles from the city centre and host of this tournament for the past three years.
Famed for its fast greens and man-made lakes, Muthaiga is a 7,228-yard par 71 where accuracy plays a bigger part than muscle, hence all three past champions—Ashun Wu, Jorge Campillo and Darius Van Driel—have plotted their way round rather than battered it into submission. With an average winning score of 16 under par, it is a demanding but fair test, and as it is a 22/1-the-field week, if you happen to alight on the right name, you’re in for a tidy profit.
There’s no doubt that Chinese No. 1 Haotong Li, winner of the Qatar Masters two weeks ago, is the most naturally talented player there, but there are plenty of trees and bushes, and I fear his wild driving may be punished more than it was in Qatar. He has never played Muthaiga and withdrew mid-tournament when another Nairobi course, Karen, staged the Open on his only Kenyan appearance in 2021.
I can see the case for Campillo and Sebastian Soderberg to be market leaders—the Spaniard as a course winner and the Swede on four second places last year and an encouraging fifth at Ras Al Khaimah a few weeks back. But they are not particularly reliable, so I’m taking them on with less established names with more potential.
We had a South African winner last year—and a big-priced one at that—in the short-hitting Van Driel, but he has achieved little since and is as big as 50/1 this time. A more appealing Springbok is Jayden Schaper, only 23, but fifth in Qatar last time and often looking the part in Europe and the States, where he finished 13th in last year’s Barracuda. He was only a lad when tying seventh with Bob MacIntyre at Muthaiga two years ago and has learned a lot since.
Two more South Africans to note are Wilco Nienaber, who won on the Challenge Tour at Fancourt last week, and Ryan Van Velzen, runner-up in the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek in December and a fair T11 at Muthaiga last year.
But preference is for Spaniards Ángel Ayora, only 20 but a surefire future star, and Iván Cantero, who finished 14-4-5 on his three latest starts in the Gulf Swing. Equally eye-catching have been Frenchman Martin Couvra and Englishmen Joe Dean—runner-up here last year—and Brandon Robinson-Thomson.
Whether Robinson-Thomson will be as impressive as he was in Bahrain and Qatar (3rd and 8th) on courses he knew, only time will tell. I don’t think we have seen the last of this late bloomer from the Isle of Wight, but for my main bet, I’m leaning towards Couvra, who at 22 has the scope and game to go a long way.
He has had good results in Africa before—seventh in the ADC, 12th in the SA Open—and if he can maintain the Gulf form that saw him finish fourth in Bahrain and fifth in Qatar, he will take all the beating.
My last throw of the dice will be visiting American Brandon Wu (watch those bets, as past champion Ashun Wu is also playing), who would surely rather be playing on his favourite course in Mexico, where he was runner-up to Jon Rahm in 2022 and third to Tony Finau the following year. But Wu has lost his US card, so is trying his luck elsewhere. His 25th in Qatar was decent enough, but he’s been a lot better than that. There’s a chance he could outclass these.
And guess what? It’s going to be sunny and hot, with just enough wind to keep the scoring honest.
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